What I think, know and believe about the college football world, the 4th best team in college football, and the Big Ten kicks off, all in the latest College Football Cavalcade.
Sorry if this column sucks, it’s not my fault …
Unlike Ohio State head coach Ryan Day, the column will NOT be apologizing in any way for scoring a late touchdown instead of taking a knee despite being up 28 points. What are you going to do about it, call a time out with three seconds left? Oooooooooh, that’ll sting. Go for it – prolong your agony.
– Contact/Follow @ColFootballNews & @PeteFiutak
– Check out all the past Cavalcades
– Big Ten 21-Day Rule
– 4th Best Team In CFP Race
– I Think, I Know, I Believe
– 5 Footballey Opinions
– Sure-Thing Picks of the Century
And I still say Margot was safe on the attempt to steal home
I know we live in a world where reality has gone bye-bye. However, in this time of deep division, a horrific number of moral failings, and too many moronic opinions voiced by people who feel empowered to go full jerkweed, let us all come together as one nation, under a groove, and with one voice to agree on one undeniable truth …
Indiana’s Michael Penix SO didn’t get in on that two-point conversion to beat Penn State.
Opinion-wise, this is Green Needle or Brainstorm – you can read this either way and your brain will interpret it correctly.
Acceptable Reaction and Opinion 1: Penix didn’t get in, you can clearly see it on the replay, the officials botched this huge, and Penn State should’ve won.
Acceptable Reaction and Opinion 2: It’s Penn State. (bleep) it.
Now 22-1 all-time goes to 22-2, and it didn’t have to be that way …
I’ve fought with several people over the last few days on this, and I absolutely understand the theory behind the other side of the argument.
But I’m right.
To whiteboard what happened, Penn State was up 21-20 in the final minutes against Indiana when RB Devyn Ford had a clear path for a touchdown. All he had to do was fall down on the one-yard line and that was it. IU wouldn’t have been able to stop the clock and Penn State would’ve won.
In a similar situation on Sunday, I actually like that Todd Gurley accidentally scored against Detroit – Atlanta was losing late, and you never, ever, ever, ever assume anything, including a chip shot field goal. In this case, again, Penn State was up.
I can’t blame Ford for what happened. You’re asking the world out of a college running back in the heat of the moment to not score a touchdown when he gets a chance. ALL that hard work and ALL these guys go through to have a shot at the glory – going down when the end zone is right there goes against every possible instinct.
Okay, so Ford gets in and Penn State is up 27-20 with 1:42 to play. To me, this situation is the equivalent of basketball types who desperately scream about why a team that’s up three in the final seconds should foul and put the other team on the free throw line rather than allow a possible game-tying three-pointer.
I’m Mr. Never Go For Two Unless You Absolutely Have To, but in this case you’re already up seven with 1:42 to play. You go for two. Always.
It’s a relatively risk-free, free-pass chance to win the game right there.
At worst, you miss, and the other team still has to go 75 yards or so for a touchdown. (Actually, the worst that could happen is the two could be returned the other way, but we’re not being that guy right now.)
If you miss and the other team roars back and scores a TD, the coach will almost certainly kick the extra point and take the thing into overtime. If he doesn’t and chooses to go for two and the victory, then that’s on you to win the game with a stop.
However, in Penn State’s case, if you go for two when up seven and convert, you’re up nine, game over, get on the bus, go home. Kick the extra point, you’re up eight, and Indiana is still alive.
Penn State kicked the extra point. Penn State lost.
– Big Ten 21-Day Rule
– 4th Best Team In CFP Race
– I Think, I Know, I Believe
– 5 Footballey Opinions
– Sure-Thing Picks of the Century
NEXT: The Big Ten’s 21-Day Rule
But if you’re Wisconsin and you’re down to your 4th QB, just run it 82 times and you’ll probably be fine
Good on you, Big Ten, for your hard-stop rule that a player with a confirmed positive second test is out for 21 days. Don’t pass go. Don’t collect $200. Out. Three weeks, potentially three games.
And, by the way, good on Wisconsin head coach Paul Chryst for effectively saying the same thing when it comes to the rule being the right way to do this.
That’s what being the conference adult in the room looks like.
Of course there’s whining out there about hoaxes, and how we’re past this, and how it’s the flu, and how it’s all overblown, and how no college football player is going to die from this, and blah, blah, blah …
No. You’ve got this, Big Ten.
You set the rule, everyone knows it, it makes sure everyone is as air-tight as possible in how they conduct themselves over the two-month sprint of a season, and you take it out of the hands of the silly people.
It’s as much of a deterrent as it is a way to try being responsible for everyone’s health and safety.
Follow the lead, other Big Ten coaches and players. You know the rules, you know there’s a backstop of a few positive tests needed before the time off rule kicks in. If you want to play football in the Big Ten this season, you know what you have to do.
Seriously, and not because of football, stay safe everyone – especially if you disagree with me. If you don’t know anyone who is struggling just to get through the day more than four months after first getting it – like the eight people that I know with various lingering issues – here’s hoping you never do.
– What Penn State Should’ve Done
– 4th Best Team In CFP Race
– I Think, I Know, I Believe
– 5 Footballey Opinions
– Sure-Thing Picks of the Century
NEXT: The 4th Best Team In College Football Is …
We’re owed a really, really good College Football Playoff after the last two
We’re all going to have some laughs, and we’re all going to kill some time, and we’re all going to have our arguments over the College Football Playoff chase and who the four teams should be, but come on.
Clemson, Alabama, Ohio State.
Those are the three best teams, one of them is going to win the national championship, and yet we’re all going to have to go through the process of making sure someone else gets a cookie with that fourth spot.
Let’s slow the roll on the Tiger, Tide, Buckeye coronation just a wee bit. Every program is one positive test away from everything changing, but let’s assume the three best teams are healthy, the star quarterbacks stay in one piece, and those things go chalk at the top of the ticket.
We’re required by law – I think – to have four teams in this thing, so who’s it going to be? Who really is that fourth best team?
The polls would tell you it’s Notre Dame, but the Coaches Poll also has Penn State two spots ahead of Indiana and the AP just this week put Texas A&M ahead of Florida, even though neither one played. But let’s say it’s Notre Dame. If it gets there, it’ll have certainly earned it.
The Irish get Clemson at home on November 7th and have to go to North Carolina and – don’t scoff – Wake Forest. Get through to the ACC Championship with one loss, win that, and in. No question. But …
This really isn’t a top four team right now.
It’s fine, and the defense is great, but the passing game is too inconsistent and the Irish have yet to play anyone who currently has a winning record.
Speaking of not playing anyone, Oklahoma State beat West Virginia, and it pushed past an Iowa State team by three that got rolled by the Ragin’ Cajuns of Louisiana by 20, and … nah.
It might beat Texas this week, but four of the last five games are on the road. The Cowboys are fine, and if they go unbeaten and win the Big 12 Championship they’re in, but … nah.
Cincinnati is No. 7 in both polls and … come on. You know how this CFP works as well as I do. Also, the last three games – at UCF, at Temple, at Tulsa – aren’t easy before getting to an ACC title game. There’s also Memphis and Houston to deal with.
BYU’s best win if it gets through clean would be at Boise State. Go unbeaten and there’s a spot in the New Year’s Six, but with this schedule, the CFP is a heavy lift.
A whole lot of one-loss teams are technically still alive, but we’re talking about the fourth best team in college football right now.
Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan, Florida, and I’ll throw in Texas A&M to be nutty. I’ll also give you the potential USC issue.
USC is loaded with experience and a nasty offense that’s going to go off from the start. But would six games against Arizona State, at Arizona, at Utah, Colorado, Washington State, and at UCLA do it? If it beats an unbeaten North team in the Pac-12 Championship, I’ll make the call that it’s in, but that would be a whale of a fight for the committee.
Wisconsin? Let’s do some roll slowing off of one great win over one bad Illinois team. Not helped by the quarterback health issues, there’s probably a loss at Michigan and there’s definitely a loss in the Big Ten Championship if it gets there.
I’m alone on this, but I sort of like Texas A&M. Arkansas, at South Carolina, at Tennessee, Ole Miss, LSU, at Auburn – that’s not quite as bad as it seems. There are too many landmines, though, and the end of the day, it’s still Texas A&M. It’ll blow it.
Michigan looked fantastic against Minnesota. Considering it’ll probably get Wisconsin with its fourth-string quarterback, and Penn State is certainly beatable, this might be a dangerous team in the debate. If it gets to the Ohio State game unbeaten and is merely decent, it’ll have an argument.
However …
At least at the moment, talent-wise, the fourth-best team is probably the winner of Florida-Georgia on November 7th.
The Gators need to D up, and the Dawgs need a QB, but these two have the guys to beat any one of the big three on the right CFP day.
We’ll have our four best teams, and then it all starts up on January 1st … 20-fricking-21.
– What Penn State Should’ve Done
– Big Ten 21-Day Rule
– I Think, I Know, I Believe
– 5 Footballey Opinions
– Sure-Thing Picks of the Century
NEXT: I Think, I Know, I Believe …
America’s newest family-friendly fun-time … Think, Know, Believe
I think Rutgers still isn’t very good.
I know Michigan State lost its second season opener since 2004 when it lost to … Rutgers, coached by Greg Schiano the year before the program turned the corner.
I believe Michigan State just turned the ball over again.
I think Oklahoma is about to really kick it all in and roll to another Big 12 championship.
I know Texas Tech might be quirky-interesting with Henry Columbi under center and with the team winning a game with only 169 passing yards.
I believe Texas Tech will need to change that 169 to at least 369 to hang with the Sooners now that Spencer Rattler is starting to get where we all know he’ll soon be in the OU offense.
I think Oreo and Oreo-related knockoffs are fine.
I know peanut butter rules.
I believe Oreos dipped in peanut butter – and NOT Peanut Butter Oreos – can make everything just fine. (As I pound down No. 5 while writing all this.)
I think BYU is the new UCF.
I know UCF is still a whole lot of fun.
I believe BYU at Boise State will get lost in the shuffle on November 7th thanks to the start of the Pac-12, Florida vs. Georgia, Clemson at Notre Dame, and all of whatever this next week is about to be.
I think you always, always, always, always, always take 46.5 points if someone wants to give them to you.
I know Clemson beat Syracuse 47-21.
I believe if someone wants to give you 21 points in an NFL game … (America instantly hammered the opening line on Jets-Kansas City HARD, pushing it down to 19.5. That’s still a lot.)
– What Penn State Should’ve Done
– Big Ten 21-Day Rule
– 4th Best Team In CFP Race
– 5 Footballey Opinions
– Sure-Thing Picks of the Century
NEXT: The COW footballey opinions on footballey stuff
Five Cavalcade of Whimsy footballey opinions and, like, other stuff
1. Why isn’t there any defense?
There is, but it doesn’t seem like it against the better passing games. And why? There are a whole slew of reasons to blame 2020 for the lack of tackling and defensive ingenuity, but the offenses were blowing up over the previous years, too.
How about this for a theory thrown at me this week?
Players have finally been coached up well on the targeting call.
It took a few years, but now defensive players have grown up without the kill shots that used to be such a big part of the game.
Defensive backs are still flying around, but if they’re just a half-tick slower because they want to don’t want to get flagged and ejected, and receivers are able to run without quite as much fear as they did even five years ago, and the quarterbacks are more accurate now after they’ve gone through the tutoring camps, and college football is about throwing to open targets anyway …
We get a whole lot more offensive fun.
2. It helps to have Kyler Murray instead of Ben DiNucci …
So, is it possible that you just can’t win at Texas Tech, or did Kliff Kingsbury just get with the right NFL team at the right time?
I’m the first to admit that I didn’t think the falling-up in job status would work, but Kingsbury sure is coaching the stuff out of that Cardinal team that’s a near-lock to make the playoffs.
So I’ll ask the same question I’ve been asking over the last few years …
If Kingsbury can do that with the Arizona Cardinals, how is Lincoln Riley not the Dallas Cowboys head coach yesterday?
3. It helps to have Dan Marino …
There was some thought back in 1983 among NFL scouting types that Dan Marino was going to the worst team possible for his skills and style when he was drafted by the Miami Dolphins.
Head coach Don Shula became a legend with teams built on a strong running game, a tough defense, and a caretaker quarterback who came through when needed. But as Chris Berman said about the pick at the time, “It’s Don Shula; it’s going to be okay.”
And Miami adapted into – for the time – one of the highest-flying fun shows in the history of the NFL.
You don’t think Nick Saban can adapt and adjust his coaching style and philosophy?
Alabama fans, your team is putting up a bajillion points on the board with an unstoppable force of an attack, and some of you are upset that your D isn’t the brick wall it was ten years ago?
So he thinks offense is more important than defense now. It’s Nick Saban. It’s going to be okay.
With that …
4. It’s Alabama. It’s going to be okay.
With a few exceptions, almost any top 25-caliber team’s starting 22 can hang with or beat anyone else’s starting 22 on the right day. The difference is usually in the depth through a long game and definitely through the course of a season.
For the elite of the elite, your backups are starters just about anywhere else. That sounds a bit cliché, but when your bench is loaded with Johnny Five-Stars, it’s true.
Alabama lost Tua Tagovailoa, Jerry Jeudy, Henry Ruggs, and Jedrick Wills off of its 2019 offense. I don’t care who you are, losing four of the top 15 to the NFL Draft from one side of the ball is a problem.
Against Tennessee, the Tide lost sure-thing top 15 pick Jaylen Waddle on the opening kickoff, and John Metchie stepped up with 151 receiving yards, Slade Bolden caught nine passes for 94 yards, and the Tide passing attack threw for 417.
Trust The Process.
5. Everyone deserves to have a little bit of fun.
It suuuuuuuuucks to lose a college football game. Times that by a gajillion when your guys lose to a team they should’ve whacked by a bazillion.
However, be happy for Rutgers fans. They’ve had absolutely nothing to cheer for over the last several years, and now they’re right there with Ohio State and Michigan on top of the Big Ten East standings.
Be happy for Arkansas. The Auburn thing stunk, and the team is taking baby steps forward, but like many assumed about Rutgers, no one would’ve been shocked if the team went winless and lost every game by double-digits.
It’s a good thing that UTEP has a few wins, and the Sun Belt matters, and San Jose State kicked off the year with a win over Air Force, and Kansas …
Pray for Kansas.
– What Penn State Should’ve Done
– Big Ten 21-Day Rule
– 4th Best Team In CFP Race
– I Think, I Know, I Believe
– Sure-Thing Picks of the Century
NEXT: The sure-thing picks of the century for this week
This week’s reason I should be the next Commissioner of the Big Ten …
I shouldn’t be. I guarantee with 1000% certainly that I sat through and watched more really, really bad Big Ten football this weekend than Kevin Warren – and just about everyone else on the planet – but …
I missed the end of the Penn State-Indiana game.
Of course I went back and got it, but I didn’t see it live. Considering my whole life is one big pregame show, missing an epic moment like that as it happened hurts.
The sure-thing, 100%, rock-solid lock, sell the house, sell the kids, no doubt about it picks of the century for this week
PICK SO FAR: 20-18 SU, 16-27 ATS
We’ll get through this together.
If you’ve followed this piece for the close to the 20 freaking years I’ve been doing it, you know that when I’m ice cold here – I always make the gut-reaction picks before doing the deep dive on the research for the site predictions – you know the smoke is coming soon.
But this whole season has been ugly, so until it turns, you veterans know exactly what to do. If it helps you to go the other way, by all means, PLEASE save yourself.
Fortunately, all these picks are correct.
– Marshall -23 over FIU
– Minnesota -20 over Maryland
– North Carolina -6.5 over Virginia
– San Jose State +9.5 over New Mexico (I’m almost certain this was posted wrong, but until it’s changed …)
– Wisconsin -3 over Nebraska (Don’t care if the Badgers are starting 59-year-old Randy Wright at quarterback – JUMP on this line NOW in case the tests come back false positive)
– Mississippi State +31 over Alabama (Alabama straight up)
Bet on any of all these games at BetMGM. Please.
C.O.W. shameless gimmick item …
The weekly five Overrated/Underrated aspects of the world
5. Overrated: Being wrong on every single aspect of analysis on anything Kentucky is doing this year.
Underrated: Other than the wins by Boise State and San Diego State, being wrong on every single aspect of analysis on the start of the Mountain West season.
4. Overrated: Anyone whining about any of these games not being like they normally are.
Underrated: Every single solitary second that goes by without the NCAA shutting this whole thing down for 2020.
3. Overrated: In a digital age, the necessity of pieces of plastic to legally drive anywhere and occasionally pay for goods and services.
Underrated: The Saving Private Ryan-level effort that cost the lives of too many good men in the search for my wallet – only the ninth time I’ve misplaced it in the last few months.
2. Overrated: The time wasted on a football Saturday afternoon and night looking for that thing.
Underrated: Having to describe to store workers and the police that it’s not really a wallet, but more like a Lulu pouch thingy with dopey inspirational sayings on it that I used one day in a pinch after my last wallet got destroyed in the washing machine, and then not asking anymore because I didn’t want to tell anyone I was looking for a Lulu pouch thingy with dopey inspirational sayings on it.
1. Overrated: This weekend’s slate of college football games.
Underrated: The November 7th slate of college football games, and praying we’ll care about them after whatever happens over the next week.
Sorry if this column sucked, it wasn’t my fault …
It would’ve retweeted this, but it didn’t want to get whacked with a $25,000 fine by the SEC like Lane Kiffin did …
Y'all are a disgrace @SEC your officiating is absolutely atrocious. @SECOfficiating
If y'all want to just keep gifting Auburn wins, just say it. pic.twitter.com/LJ01avk5ZI
— Breck Jones (@BreckJones_) October 24, 2020
– What Penn State Should’ve Done
– Big Ten 21-Day Rule
– 4th Best Team In CFP Race
– I Think, I Know, I Believe
– 5 Footballey Opinions
