The final thoughts, a few predictions, and some investment advice to make your life a heck of a lot better than it currently is.
Week 7 Fearless Predictions, Game Previews
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Yeahhhhhhhhh, this is the week that we’ve been waiting for when it comes to the real, live, playoff-caliber matchups where the big boys start to get tested.
This is all for spits, giggles, and entertainment purposes only, however, just in case you dabble …
Week 7 Final Thoughts, Investment Advice
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New Mexico has struggled against the bad teams, and it lost to other bad teams. Along the way, it has been lit up like a Christmas tree by anyone who knows how to throw a forward pass. Colorado State might not exactly be holding up We Want Bama signs, and it can’t stop anyone’s running game, but at least it’s losing to decent teams. The line went WAY down from the opening from CSU -7 to -3.5. The world is hammering the home team.
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ACC Betting Advice, Final Thoughts
I have been asked this five times so far this week: “Am I missing something? Why is Miami a 2.5-point favorite over Virginia? Short answer, I’m not quite sure other than that it opened at Canes -1, and the world seemed to like the home team on a Friday night. Normally, when things appear to be way off, there’s a reason, and I question the world and my place in it.
However, Virginia is rested, Miami hasn’t beaten anyone, and my advice in a world full of chaos is to always go with the team that’s supposed to win this. Miami just lost to a bad Virginia Tech team. Virginia is a good team. Do with that what you must.
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From the first half of the Boise State game I’ve been saying this is a different and dangerous Florida State team. It has the athletes and just enough talent to hang around with Clemson. Even with two weeks off since the North Carolina game, the Tigers aren’t getting a ton of love with the line staying at around 27, and that might be a wee bit high. Clemson can win easily and still not cover – get ready for that to be a theme for some huge spreads this week.
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When in doubt, take the favorite to beat the really, really bad team. The Duke-Georgia Tech line is right just about right on at Blue Devils -17. Georgia Tech is awful, but it’s not getting totally wiped out. The line is moving and coming in at 17.5 in some places. That half a points shouldn’t throw you, but don’t go heavy into Duke.
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Wait for the Wake Forest – Louisville line to go up a bit. Wake Forest is playing everyone close, and Louisville is playing much, much better than the public seems to be giving it credit for … until now. The line started at Demon Deacons -9 and dropped in a hurry to 6.5. Wake Forest should win this close – again, wait for the rebound and hope for it to get to 7.5 if you like the Cardinals. Like the over on the 65, too.
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Week 7 Final Thoughts, Investment Advice
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Big 12 Betting Advice, Final Thoughts
Have you SEEN Texas play Oklahoma in the Red River Showdown over the last three years? If this was the Big 12 Championship, it might be a different story, but Texas shows up for these things in the Cotton Bowl, and the man is handing you 10.5 points. Remember, Oklahoma hasn’t beaten anyone other than Texas Tech. Also remember that for all the love LSU is getting, it only beat the Longhorns by seven. To put it another way and hammer this point home … Texas might win this outright.
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AGAIN, the big, massive spreads are coming into play. Baylor just rocked Kansas State, but Texas Tech’s offense showed up against Oklahoma State in a big win last week. Bear QB Charlie Brewer is a bit banged up – but playing – and the line has now gone up to 11.5 … Baylor is good, but it’s not automatic double-digit good. Also, like the under on the 58 – these two are playing a little bit of D.
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This one is just about not liking to give away double-digit points for a home team. West Virginia might wildly inconsistent, bu the offense is starting to show up. If you can get it and 10.5 points at home against an Iowa State team that might be getting a wee bit overloved for blasting TCU last week, knock it down. Texas only beat the Mountaineers by 11 last week,
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Week 7 Final Thoughts, Investment Advice
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Big Ten Betting Advice, Final Thoughts
Ohhhhhh, no. I’m not letting you purchase a ticket on the Michigan negativity train. It stinks that the line went up from Wolverines -19 against Illinois to -23, but it should still be okay. Illinois is going to have a very, very hard time scoring. Don’t trust your eyes – Michigan isn’t quite as bad as it’s been looking.
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If you need to get in on Indiana vs. Rutgers, do it now before the world starts hammering the Hoosiers even more. The Scarlet Knights are a disaster, they’re losing parts left and right, and at home, IU should be able to win by around 28. The line is about right, and it’s always scary to pick Indiana as a four touchdown favorite against anyone, but go ahead.
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There’s absolutely nothing to suggest that Purdue has the parts to beat Maryland. The Boilermaker main men in the passing game are hurt, even with them the team stinks, and … do it anyway. Which Maryland team is going to show up? The Terps blew out Rutgers last week – whatever. The Boilermakers are overdue for a game to go its way. Go light, but like the home team in need of a break.
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Wisconsin’s inability to put Northwestern away easily a few weeks ago should scare you just a wee bit. The Badgers are going to beat Michigan State, but this Spartan defense is still very good, the offense is good enough, and if the team can hold it together after dealing with Arizona State, Northwestern – that was a physical fight – and Ohio State over the last few weeks, it should at least be able to not get wiped out. The Badgers -10.5 seems a tad on the high side. The total went up a point to 40.5 – take the chance that these two have the ability to hang in the low 20s.
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Personal preference time. I’ve never liked the idea to take a team to win but not cover the line if it’s under 5, and never at anything lower than that. The only time to do it is when you really think the underdog could win outright, and that’s exactly the case in Iowa City. Don’t try threading any needles – if you like Iowa at home to beat Penn State, then just be glad you’re getting the 3.5. Hope for it to get up to 4.
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The early forecast for Minneapolis on Saturday night is for around 33ish with a delightful mix of rain and snain and flake and utter misery. Minnesota had a good half against Illinois, but it doesn’t seem to like to do anything easy. To repeat the phrase from this week over and over and over again … Nebraska could win outright.
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Week 7 Final Thoughts, Investment Advice
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Pac-12 Betting Advice, Final Thoughts
Is Oregon ever going to break out of its offensive shell? There’s a chance this seems like a silly call considering everyone in the Colorado receiving corps is apparently hurt, but the line is going up to Ducks -21 – it was hanging around a point lower. The Ducks win on defense and ball control, so like the under on the 59.5, and expect this to be a wee bit tight, even if the home team is in control all game long.
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What has Washington State shown you so far to suggest it can handle a sound defensive team like Arizona State on the road? Mike Leach might be trying to light a fire under his guys, but the Sun Devils might just pound away with the running game and never let the Cougars have the ball. It’s down to a Pick in some places. You know what to do.
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Be PATIENT on USC-Notre Dame. The 10.5-point Irish line is going to go up – the Domer fans are going to drive this up to 11 by gametime. If you like USC, just wait it out. The Trojans haven’t been good so far on the road, but they’re rested. (BTW, you can probably get this at USC +11.5 on BetMGM – it’s been moving a ton.) However, tread lightly. Personally, I’m still scared from the Irish pass rush jumping on Virginia QB Bryce Perkins’ head.
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Don’t get cute here and don’t overthink this. Utah is still Pac-12 Championship-good, and Oregon State – despite its improvements – isn’t. The Beavers aren’t running the ball a lick, and Utah isn’t going to have too many problems with Jake Luton and the passing game. The Utes are giving away 14, and that might be at least four points light.
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EHHHHHHHHHH, do you have a handle on Washington vs. Arizona? There’s STILL nothing that points to the Huskies losing to Stanford, and yet it happened. UW is better than Arizona, but Khalil Tate is going off, and … Jacob Eason is going to throw for a bazillion yards on the Wildcat D. The line has already gone down from 9.5 to UW -6. Watch for it to drop another point.
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Week 7 Final Thoughts, Investment Advice
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SEC Betting Advice, Final Thoughts
The 23.5 seems like a whole lot of points for Georgia to be giving away to South Carolina, but are you really worried about this being any sort of a shootout? It’s an early start, and the Gamecocks are going to be plucky, but don’t get lulled into thinking that Georgia isn’t anything short of amazing. It might not be Oklahoma explosive, but it’s still a killer.
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It would be nice if Mississippi State would finally show up and do something consistently well. At some point, Tennessee is going to pull off a win and catch/create a major break at home. MSU is someone the Vols own size, and the orange team is getting seven points. This is a desperate team that will play like it.
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Alabama only giving away 17 to Texas A&M is scarier than you think. That number is about right on considering the Aggies have a way of slowing things down to a mind-numbing stop. When in doubt, always take Alabama, but there might not be a whole lot of possessions in this.
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Let’s put it this way. If Vanderbilt is really just that bad that it can’t beat this MISERABLE UNLV team at home by more than two touchdowns, that’s not your fault. You’re a (bleep)ing SEC team, Vanderbilt. Act like it.
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The line on Missouri blew up from Tigers -8.5 when the health of Kelly Bryant was in question to -12.5 now the it looks like he’ll be fine for the Ole Miss game. Expect an inspired effort from the Mizzou defense, but don’t expect fireworks overall with Bryant not 100% on that knee.
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The 6.5 Kentucky is giving up to Arkansas just will … not … budge. That’s what it started at, and that’s where it’s apparently staying. The Wildcats aren’t doing much of anything right, and the Hogs are at least starting to look like there might be something there, but … come on. You’re thinking of betting on Arkansas only getting 6.5 points on the road?
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