College football final thoughts, a few predictions, and some investment advice to make your life a heck of a lot better than it currently is.
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This is all for spits, giggles, and entertainment purposes only, however, just in case you dabble …
Week 6 Fearless Predictions, Game Previews
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– Week 6 Expert Picks & Predictions: College
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– 10 Best College Football Picks Against The Spread
College Football Betting Advice, Final Thoughts, Week 6
12:00 ET Gametimes
Texas A&M has yet to win a really, really, really big game under Jimbo Fisher. It won a few mid-range ones, but beating Florida would be a program changer, while a loss would mean a 1-2 start with a trip to Mississippi State up next. You know how this is going to go against the Gators – the only question is whether or not you believe in the 6.5. (hint: you should)
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North Carolina plays way too many close games, it doesn’t roll the good teams when it wins, and Virginia Tech is better – at least if it’s healthy. The return of QB Hendon Hooker helps, and it would be nice if the line bounces back up – UNC -4 after starting -7 – but the Hokies might win this outright. Unfortunately, the Hokies at +155 on the money line isn’t enticing enough.
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Just how screwed up is the line on LSU vs. Missouri? If this was in Baton Rouge – like it was supposed to be – this is LSU -20ish or so, but because it moved to Mizzou thanks to hurricane concerns, it’s at around -14. This is a plucky MU team that will fight for a full four quarters, but we all might be getting a bargain basement line on LSU here.
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Oklahoma – Texas is as coin-flipy as it gets. Here’s the problem. Oklahoma is better than 1-2, but it couldn’t close in the losses to Kansas State and Iowa State because Spencer Rattler needs more at-bats. On the other side, Texas might be just plain meh. In what should be a dead-even game – it’s OU -2.5 – if everything is even, one side has the four-year starter, the other has the guy who hasn’t come through with games on the line.
One other thing – the over on the 72 is calling you, but don’t take the bait. Neither team is playing a whole lot of D, but 72 is still a big ask. It’s the fun early game, so of course you’re going to go over – just don’t go huge.
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I know a few guys jumping all over Liberty -19.5 over ULM. With that caveat, ehhhhhhhhhhhh. ULM has been miserable so far, but the Liberty defense hasn’t been anything special and the Warhawk O is starting to get its legs. If this is 55-0 Liberty, I’ll tip my cap, but … ehhhhhhhhhhhh.
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Is NC State good? Its defense hasn’t been anything to get fired up about, but I’m not about to get into a twist over getting rocked by a strong Virginia Tech team a few weeks ago – even if the Hokies were missing a ton of guys. Try this. I don’t think NC State is all that good, but I’m happy to take the 8 against Virginia to find out, and after beating Pitt on the road last week, I’m curious on the +250 money line play.
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Speaking of money line plays …
You’re never, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever going to do it, but at least give some thought to Vanderbilt +425 on the money line at home against South Carolina. You know the Commodores are going to score around 17 points, but that D could hold that O to 16. However, if you believe the Gamecocks can and will score 28, like them at -13.5.
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Duke isn’t very good at college football this season. Syracuse isn’t very good at college football this season. Getting one point shouldn’t matter, but it’s the principle of the thing – the Orange as an underdog at home to Duke is insulting. Like the Orange you believe they can keep Duke from generating 19 sacks.
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If you can get Army -29 somewhere against The Citadel, consider it. The Citadel trying to throw the ball in comeback mode makes the world a sadder place.
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NEXT: 3:30 to 4:00 ET Gametimes
3:30 to 4:00 ET Gametimes
Two completely different theories here on Georgia vs. Tennessee. The whole point of this piece is to help you confirm what you already believe, so if you think Georgia’s defense is going to rise up and pitch a gem like it did against Auburn last week, then fall in love with the -12. However, if you’re a money line guy and sort of think the Vols might be about to turn a corner, the +400 isn’t insane.
– CFN Game Preview, Prediction
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Until BYU does anything other than look utterly dominant, don’t mess with what’s working. UTSA isn’t playing poorly, and that 34.5 is a HUGE number, but something has clicked for the Cougars. Put it this way, they just throttled a solid Louisiana Tech team 31. Louisiana Tech would be around a 9.5ish point favorite over UTSA.
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It would be nice to get a little more than +340 money line on Texas Tech at Iowa State, but it’s still not a bad value play. The 13-point line is artificially high because starting Red Raider QB Alan Bowman has a banged up ankle, but Iowa State doesn’t win games against decent teams in blowouts, and Texas Tech can keep up with Henry Colombi under center.
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Normally it’s no fun to do FCS vs. FBS games here, but just keep an eye on the line – if you can get it – for Arkansas State vs. Central Arkansas. UCA has been plucky, but that -14 for ASU seems a tad bit of a reach. Arkansas State just got wasted by Coastal Carolina – it’s going to come into this thing with some serious salt.
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Texas State has been all over the ATS map so far in terms of expectations, and Troy is still a wee bit of a mystery. The over on the 59 isn’t a bad call with these two offenses, but Troy -8 seems a bit rich. It’s an unfortunate bad value money line play with Texas State only at +240 – it should be a bit more than that – but if you like the Bobcats +8, that’s not a bad flier.
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Forgive the mixed messages across the board this week, but here’s the call on Arkansas-Auburn. Auburn probably isn’t going to score a gajillion points in what should be a relatively low-scoring battle. I like Auburn to rise up and win by more than the 13.5, especially after the line plummeted down from the 18 at the open. However – considering the Auburn win-and-cover will probably be more like 24-10 than 55-10 – hammer the hell out of the +430 on the money line if you think this Hog thing is close to being real.
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The ACC has its superstars and its dregs, but there’s also this deep mid-section to teams that will beat up on one another. Boston College could absolutely beat Pitt, but this is turning out to be one flaky Eagle team. I’d stay away, but if you must, BC +6 isn’t bad considering it could win this outright, but … again, stay away unless you have a super-strong feeling.
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There’s a massive overreaction to the concern over whether or not Kansas State QB Skylar Thompson will play against TCU. Take advantage of it. Whether he does or not, Kansas State getting 8.5 is a gift from the gods, and it’s possible to get it at +270 on the money line. TCU is good, but over the last few years it doesn’t win Big 12 games against good teams in blowout fashion.
– CFN Game Preview, Prediction
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
For the love of Butch Davis and all that you hold dear, don’t touch FIU hosting Middle Tennessee. The line started out at FIU -6, you can get it at -4.5, and it’ll probably settle in at about 5. These are two weird teams in this early part of the season, which should mean that you go Middle Tennessee and the points, but FIU is overdue, the Blue Raiders are fine as long as they stop screwing up, and … don’t mess with this.
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NEXT: 6:00 – 9:00 ET Gametimes
6:00 – 9:00 ET Gametimes
We don’t know what we’re getting with Temple. We do know we’re getting a whole lot of bad with Navy. Why sure … let’s pay the 3.5 points with Temple to find out what this thing is in the Owl season-opener.
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You know there’s a problem when you’re way too hung up on a half a point. I truly believe there’s a good football team somewhere inside both USF and East Carolina just waiting to come out, but that half on the USF on the 4.5 has me thrown for some reason. That means you go with ECU to potentially win outright, but it’s been so bad this year and USF can run, so go USF, but … this is one of the week’s biggest toss-ups.
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Part of this whole thing is to know when to stay away when you don’t have a definitive call on something. That changes now with …
Clemson, -14 over Miami. Pass go, collect the $200, and move on. If Miami pulls this off or looks solid and covers, be happy as a football fan. The ACC needs more good teams, and it needs more storylines – it needs a good Miami. I’m rooting for the story of the Hurricanes, but I know Clemson in a big regular season game when it’s supposed to feel threatened. This won’t be a total wipeout, but it’s Clemson at home when people care. You know how this works.
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Ole Miss scares the hell out of me against Alabama. I don’t think the Lane Train is pulling out of the station with a win, but this Tide team hasn’t gone full throttle yet for a full four quarters, and this just screams backdoor cover as Matt Corral and the Rebel passing game keep on bombing away. This should follow the pattern of Bama games so far – get up fast, end it by halftime, set it to cruise control. That’s a problem on the road with 24 points being given away.
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It’s just not in me to give away three touchdowns to Florida State, ever. Notre Dame destroyed USF, but it’s been several weeks since it’s been able to play. Meanwhile, FSU made a quarterback change, it finally woke up and got the O going against Jacksonville State, and the talent really is there to … yeah, I know. Go Irish -21.
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It’s just not in me to go with UTEP and the points, ever. I know the Miners might have figured something out with the win over ULM, and I know they’re 3-1 and better than they’ve been over the last few years, and I know Louisiana Tech hasn’t exactly shown up for the 2020 season, and I know 15 points are a lot, and I know UTEP is going to get trucked.
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I despise everything about the win-not-cover call when the line is at 7 or under, but WKU could win at home outright over Marshall. At the very least – even though there’s a TON of Herd love out there with the line going from -2 up to over a touchdown in some places – this is going to be a low-scoring game played in the 20s. Be shocked if this is a wipeout.
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As your friend, I’m going to say this with love. You’re batspit, next-level, roided-up euphoria insane if you mess around with Mississippi State at Kentucky. This is a desperate Wildcat team, this is typical Flaky McFlakerson Mike Leach team, and the 2.5 the Bulldogs are giving away on the road don’t matter. You could say this will be Kentucky 45-10, you could say it’s Mississippi State 45-40, you could say any predicted score and have a good argument.
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And finally, because this is such a strange week with so many coin-flip calls, I’ll go hard on this last one – even though I do think it’ll be a blast of a fight. North Texas isn’t stopping the Charlotte passing game. 49ers -3, over on the 67.5, and I’ll see you next week.
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