The final thoughts, a few predictions, and some investment advice to make your life a heck of a lot better than it currently is.
Week 11 Fearless Predictions, Game Previews
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This is all for spits, giggles, and entertainment purposes only, however, just in case you dabble …
Week 11 Final Thoughts, Investment Advice
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UCF is more in the hunt for a third straight New Year’s Six game than anyone is letting on. It’ll need Cincinnati to lose twice – at USF, Temple and at Memphis are coming up – but it’s still possible. The Knights are KILLING teams lately, and it’s about to destroy Tulsa on Friday night. Hopefully you got in at UCF -12.5, but the 17 shouldn’t be an issue.
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ACC Betting Advice, Final Thoughts
Sorry to start this off by being indecisive, but stay far away from the Florida State trip to Boston College. AJ Dillon and the Eagles should run wild, but the new coach factor is too much of a wild-card. If you have to, like BC only giving away the 2.5, but don’t be stunned if the Noles play hard for Odell Haggins.
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Virginia. Boom. Don’t think, just pick. There, I had to do something to make up for the FSU-BC thing – I had to be Mr. Decisive. The line is going down – it was Virginia -16.5, and now it can be had for 15. Good. The over on the 45 might be obliterated.
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These things never work out quite right, but it’s Bud Foster Day – the legendary Virginia Tech defensive coordinator is retiring – just as the explosive Wake Forest offense comes to Blacksburg. Even without that, the Hokies are playing well enough to keep this low scoring and pull it off. The Wake Forest -1.5 point line is immaterial.
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I’ve been warning you every week – I can’t get Miami right. So when I say it’s going to beat Louisville, but I tell you it’s going to be close, be careful. Also keep an eye out on the total. It was hanging around at 51 for most of the week and dropped to 48. These two should play right at 50.
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Clemson. Yeah, Clemson. The 33 is a lot to give away on the road to an NC State program that’s given Dabo a whole slew of fits, but this is a BAD Wolfpack team. Stay with the red-hot offense. and adore the over. The Tigers could hit 55 on their own.
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The Notre Dame-Duke line has been interesting. I sort of thought America would be spooked by all the close battles the Irish are playing lately, but instead, the line has gone up to ND -8. That still shouldn’t be a problem against a Blue Devil team that lost its offensive mojo, but keep an eye on this. There’s going to be a ton of late action on this one way or another – I’m not sure which way, but I’ll guess it’ll be on Duke.
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Week 11 Final Thoughts, Investment Advice
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Big 12 Betting Advice, Final Thoughts
TCU seems like the right play at home against Baylor – it was the big call against Texas a few weeks ago. The Bears do a lot of what the Horned Frogs do, only a bit better. Maybe I’m just hoping to see the showdowns against Texas and OU coming up, but the 8-0 team is only giving away 2.5. Okay.
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I know. I KNOW. I’m aware I’ve picked West Virginia WAY too often in my Quixotic assumption that the team has to be better than this. It’s getting points at home against a Texas Tech team with no defense. I’m pulling the lever on this slot machine until it pays off.
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Is Texas just … bad? The defense certainly is. Other than brand name, Sam Ehlinger, and being at home, I can’t come up with a real reason why Texas is beating Kansas State, and neither can the public that’s hammering the Horns. The line has gone up a full point, and it might go higher … be careful. The Wildcats could win this outright.
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Wrong prediction that I’m going to make anyway. The right prediction is the over on the 67.5 between Oklahoma and Iowa State. The wrong one is to believe Brock Purdy and the Cyclones really are going to keep this within 15 against a cheezed off Sooner team that sat on a loss for the last two weeks. I like ISU, but you’ve been warned.
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Week 11 Final Thoughts, Investment Advice
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Big Ten Betting Advice, Final Thoughts
Don’t get cute here. 99% of the time I’m always on the side of taking the dog it its getting more than 40 points – if I’m up 43.5 getting off the bus, I’m happy. But Ohio State is going to destroy this Terp team after almost getting tagged last year.
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Don’t get cute here, Part 2. I’ve sat through dozens of awful Minnesota football games throughout my life, and I’ve earned my stripes to say this – just take Penn State and the 6. If the Gophers pull this off, just enjoy the moment of unbridled college football joy for a program that hasn’t had a whole lot of it in over 50 years. With that said, considering Penn State doesn’t score big, I’m shocked the 47.5 total has held firm this week. This isn’t going to be any sort of a firefight.
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Oh yes … get cute here. If you’ve learned nothing over these last several weeks, I hope you’ve absorbed two things. Northwestern is AWFUL, and it doesn’t seem to want to score any points. The total has gone down to 39 for the Purdue-NW game – you can’t in good conscience go under on that, except it’s Northwestern, and Purdue is playing a third-string quarterback. Even if it doesn’t work, taking any team getting points against the Wildcats isn’t a bad call.
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Total honesty time. I’m not quite sure what to do with Illinois-Michigan State. The line hasn’t really budged from MSU -14.5, and that seems like a trap. Illinois has enough defense to keep this low scoring, and the Spartan offense is a question mark, but this might be a team looking to explode after a rough few weeks. It all says stay away, but if you have to, those are a whole lot of points you’re giving away to a relatively confident bunch.
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Don’t get cute here, Part 3. Iowa has no offense, Wisconsin is at home and it’s had two weeks to sit and stew on the last two losses. The lack of a Hawkeye running game will be a killer – the Badgers might just look like the Michigan and Michigan State version again. With that said, the line could be strange on this. It went up fast from UW -8 to 9.5. It’ll likely settle in at 8.
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Week 11 Final Thoughts, Investment Advice
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Pac-12 Betting Advice, Final Thoughts
I SO want to pick Oregon State outright against Washington. Funky things happen on Friday night games, it’s going to be a jacked up crowd in Corvallis, and the offense really is there to potentially pull this off. I can’t do it, though. I just can’t see the Huskies losing four games in their last five, but that 10.5 they’re giving away looks like a beach ball coming over the plate.
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It’s almost like the college football betting public didn’t notice that KJ Costello is not only back at QB for Stanford, but is coming off a whale of a performance against Arizona. Has Colorado showed you anything to suggest that it can win a tight game, even at home? Very quietly, Stanford has been playing just okay enough to get by, and now it has an NFL quarterback looking to make a push.
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My friend’s phrase should be the league’s tag line – Pac-12 gonna Pac-12. Apply that to USC going to Arizona State. The Sun Devils have lost their way, the Trojans need this to stay alive in the South race, and … USC isn’t that great on the road, ASU is overdue for a good game, and Pac-12 gonna … the 1.5 you’re giving away is nothing.
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Washington State really isn’t any good, and Cal’s defense is still a monster – even if the stats don’t show it – but this might not be that crazy-hard. The Cougars are giving away 7.5, but the Bears really, really, really can’t score.
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Week 11 Final Thoughts, Investment Advice
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SEC Betting Advice, Final Thoughts
Week 11 Fearless Predictions, Game Previews
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The line hasn’t gone up that much considering Vanderbilt doesn’t have any quarterbacks left to play Florida. So you’re a wee bit concerned that it went from Gators -25 up to 26.5? Deuce Wallace on the year has completed 33-of-76 passes for 217 yards with three picks – averaging 2.9 yards per throw – for the Commodores.
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Arkansas can’t lose at home to WKU, can it? I certainly think so, but let me put it this way. You’re not horribly wrong if you want to pick an SEC team at home to win by more than 1.5 over a Conference USA team. There’s a shot you could be right by a ridiculously easy margin, but … WKU has a good enough D to make this a fight.
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The line has gone down from Ole Miss -31 over New Mexico State to 28.5, and I’m not quite sure why. The Aggies have no run defense whatsoever, and the Rebels are in need of a total wipeout of a win after losing three straight. Ole Miss might run for 400 yards.
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I don’t like that the Georgia-Missouri line has gone down. Missouri was solid getting 17 earlier in the week after it opened at a way-loss +14.5, but 16.5 is okay. The concern is that Mizzou isn’t playing all that well, but Georgia’s O doesn’t quite have the pop to make this a total wipeout.
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Do you have a firm grip on Appalachian State-South Carolina, because I sure don’t? I like ASU a whole lot better at +6.5 after it started out just getting four, but … South Carolina is SO flaky. The team that could only hang 24 on Vanderbilt isn’t going to win in a blowout.
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Ohhhhhhhhhh, no, Tennessee. I’m not being seduced by your siren song of three wins in the last four games. There might nothing all that thrilling about what Kentucky does – the forward pass doesn’t really exist on a regular basis – but at home against a team going on the road for just the third time … go Cats.
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Okay, let’s do this.
There’s a large part of me that just thinks Alabama is about to do what it does. The lines are great, the passing game should go off against an LSU NFL secondary that’s stunningly burnable, and enough is enough.
This Joe Burrow thing has been cute and all, but the Tide hasn’t had a chance to make a true statement so far this year against a good team, and now it has the guy to go against.
However, there’s a nagging, gnawing feeling that there’s a 2.7% chance that Santa Clara Clemson is about to roll into Tuscaloosa. Burrow was able to produce against Auburn and Florida defenses loaded with next-level guys, and I wouldn’t be all that stunned if we’re talking next week about how Bama melted down under Nick Saban for the second game in less then ten months against an elite offense with elite NFL players.
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My original call – before looking at the lines – was Alabama -6. I liked that when it was at 5.5, and I’m not pleased now that it’s 6.5 in some places. Considering it’s 6 in several spots, if you have to go one way, go with Bama no matter how Tua Tagovailoa’s ankle is.
Hopefully you were part of the crowd that hammered the under when the total was at 65, bringing it down to 63. That still might be ten points too high, and remember, the two teams were averaging over 40 a game when they met in 2011 before the 9-6 classic – for whatever that’s worth.
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Week 11 Final Thoughts, Investment Advice
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