Week One of the 2025-26 college football season concluded with a marquee matchup between TCU and UNC on Monday night. While this unranked matchup wouldn’t normally be given its own primetime night on ESPN, there hasn’t always been an eight-time Super Bowl champion coaching on the sidelines. Former New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick made his long-awaited return to coaching in North Carolina’s first game of the season, and it couldn’t have gone any worse.
UNC was absolutely thrashed on its home field by the Horned Frogs, as Belichick suffered one of the worst losses of his career. The night ended with ESPN putting a headset on a dog solely because of how poorly the game was going.
While it went awfully for Belichick and UNC last night, how does the game go in College Football 26? We took it upon ourselves to simulate the matchup a few times in CFB 26, and the results might surprise you.
Simulation Results For TCU Vs. UNC In College Football 26
For these results, we simulated five matchups between TCU and UNC in CFB 26’s Dynasty Mode. We used the current active rosters along with Bill Belichick’s replica head coach for UNC, whose name is Hector Luna. Luna is a fictitious representation of Belichick, but does have the stats you might expect for the legendary coach in his first college gig. We changed nothing else in the Dynasty playthrough and went straight into the Week One matchup so that no advantages were given to UNC through abilities, player stats, etc.
Here were the results of the five simulated matchups between the two schools in week one of the season:
- UNC – 27 / TCU – 3
- UNC – 31 / TCU- 28
- UNC – 24 / TCU – 14
- UNC – 28 / TCU – 27
- TCU – 23 / UNC – 14
That’s right, UNC won four out of the five matchups we simulated in College Football 26. The matchups were particularly interesting to watch, as UNC often scored on its opening offensive drive, exactly like they did in their real matchup with TCU on Monday night. While TCU often kept things close, usually catching up by the fourth quarter, UNC won on a walkoff field goal or touchdown two different times.
In the lone matchup that TCU won, quarterback Josh Hoover carved up UNC’s defense, similar to how he did in real life. Hoover was usually on point, though, as TCU’s run game was largely to blame for the losses.
On the flip side, it was UNC’s run game that saw them break away from TCU early and often. Quarterback Gio Lopez had some nice moments, but the Tar Heels’ offensive line was rarely broken by the Frogs’ pass rushers and run stoppers. UNC’s offensive line looked like it overpowered TCU on the first drive in the real matchup, but after that, the Tar Heels fell apart in the trenches.
Overall, the simulated matchups likely went in favor of UNC due to the Tar Heels’ home-field advantage and higher-rated offensive players. Bill Belichick (or Hector Luna) and TCU’s head coach Sonny Dykes are closely rated in terms of their stats, abilities, etc., so that likely didn’t play too much of a factor.
Not one of our simulations resulted in a blowout for TCU, and rarely were they ever even leading the game, so it seems like CFB 26 places more value on UNC’s roster than TCU’s, at least on paper.
Where Does UNC Go From Here With Bill Belichick?
Putting aside the simulated results in CFB 26, UNC clearly needs to make some serious changes across every facet of the team. While Belichick might have had his players prepared for the game, that doesn’t suddenly make them capable of defeating an experienced Big 12 roster with a head coach who’s been to the College Football Playoff Championship game.
It was obvious that UNC had some talent deficiencies and fundamental issues, and that will likely carry forward against other decent schools. Where UNC faltered the most, in our opinion, was in the tackling department. The Horned Frogs trampled all over the Tar Heels’ defenders, especially in the run game. However, UNC was missing tackles on special teams and wiffing blocks on offense as well. This is out of the ordinary for a Belichick-coached team, but we’re dealing with college kids here, not NFL players.
It’s also worth noting that UNC has 70 new players on its roster, whether it be freshmen or players from the transfer portal. While some of those players came from prestigious schools, such as Michigan, others came from fairly unknown programs, like South Alabama (Gio Lopez). UNC even has a center on the roster who has never snapped a ball in a college game before.
So, when asking where UNC needs to improve, it’s basically everywhere. I would highly consider making a quarterback switch for week two, as Max Johnson came in for Gio Lopez in the second half and looked much more comfortable in the pocket, adjusting the offensive line protections to compensate for the lack of experience in the trenches. The run game looked decent when halfback Caleb Hood actually had some room to rush.
On defense, Belichick apparently needs to take the entire unit back to tackling school, and you can bet that will be the major point of emphasis during this week of practice. Belichick will also need to find a method to stop long yardage plays, as those really hurt UNC on the ground and through the air. Maybe that’s switching up personnel based on film or altering the defensive scheme, but there were far too many chunk plays against TCU.
UNC plays against Charlotte in week two, so they should be able to get back to the basics and reset from the horrendous TCU game. However, with what we saw from the starting units on Monday night, Charlotte might just have a chance against the Tar Heels unless Belichick can rally his players and find different ways to win.
