The Big Ten and Pac-12 postponed their fall seasons. So now what for them, and for the rest of college football?
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They’ve been among the wildest, craziest, and saddest few days in the history of college football – at least off the field.
Start with this – the entire sport didn’t shut down like many thought it might when the doom-and-gloom predictions started on Sunday night.
What’s really going on, and what’s going to happen going forward?
5. The Big Ten and Pac-12 hit the pause button
It wasn’t a total stunner that the two big conferences decided not to play their respective 2020 fall college football seasons, but it wasn’t quite supposed to happen like it did on Tuesday.
The Pac-12 was always on the verge of shutting things down.
From the outbreak of the virus in Arizona, to the concerns with a new wave in Los Angeles, to several schools throughout California choosing to operate remotely, it was always just a question of time before it was all going to be over.
The player demands and movement weren’t why the conference chose not to play in the fall of 2020, and that wasn’t likely a big factor, but the demands for change hit a major roadblock after this.
The league simply decided it couldn’t do it. From travel, to logistics, to the lack of adequate testing, the recommendation was that the Pac-12 not play a full contact sport like football this fall, and that was it.
It wasn’t so easy for the Big Ten, especially considering it announced the shutdown just before the news broke that Kamala Harris was going to be Joe Biden’s VP choice. The Pac-12 announced its news after.
News leaked out on Monday that the B1G was going to shut down, the pushback made it seem like there was still hope, and then, by early afternoon on Tuesday, it was all done.
The thought was that the league was going to take a step back and wait a few weeks by moving its schedule start from the first week of September to the last week like the other Power 5 conferences, but nope. The presidents decided to stop the fall season.
Both conferences join the MAC and Mountain West in the idea of playing in the spring – more time to figure out a consistent plan (in other words, better testing) – but the dust has to settle first.
Too many questions have to be answered, from eligibility, to the transfer potential, to whether or not Nebraska – who wants to break ranks and play – might come up with a schedule of its own.
And now …
NEXT: Can the Big Ten and Pac-12 really play in the spring?
4. Can the Big Ten and Pac-12 really play in the spring?
There are about a gajillion things that have to come together to make this happen. Here are five key parts that have to be figured out first.
1. Player eligibility. This might be easier than you think – everything just carries over. This is why everyone was making a big whoop over calling it a postponement of the Big Ten and Pac-12 seasons instead of a full-on cancelation. Think of it this way – it would be the 2020 fall season, just starting five months later.
2. The NFL. How many players per team do you really think end up in the NFL? The timing of spring football would be crushing for Ohio State, Oregon, and maybe USC and Penn State, but most of the other schools would be kept intact. The star prospects would simply opt-out, while others would try to use the timing to up their draft stock.
3. The optics. It’s a bit hard to sell the idea that you shut down a fall season over player health concerns and then have them play two seasons in ten months. However, the Big Ten and Pac-12 fans might be fine with it. Start in early February, go until early May, and then give everyone the summer off and start up the 2021 season a bit later.
4. What do you do with the fall 2021 season? The college presidents and commissioners, apparently, didn’t really get into the idea of spring football for the first time until Tuesday. For now, just assume the concept of playing in the spring was thrown out there to make the cancelation/postponement more palatable. The 2021 fall football season might as well be Mars at the moment to this group.
5. What’s REALLY going to be different? Two things: the national leadership, and testing. One way or another, things are going to be different after the presidential election. To be kind, call that an X factor.
A vaccine is the dream, but it’s not realistic to be any sort of a difference-maker for the spring. However, as the Pac-12 hinted at in its explanation, faster, more accurate testing would be the gamechanger. If you know everyone on the field is healthy, or close to it, it’s back to almost normal on the field.
NEXT: The Big 12 took center stage
3. The Big 12 took center stage
It was a tense Tuesday afternoon.
The Big Ten announced its postponement, the Pac-12 did its thing, and the ACC and SEC both put out statements within moments of each other stating their intentions to go forward with a season.
It seemed like a lobbying attempt to push the Big 12 to stay in the game.
Had the Big 12 decided it was a no-go, that was almost certainly going to be it. The ACC and SEC might not have folded right after, but it would’ve been a tough sell to keep trying to play if the other to conferences chose not to.
It was reportedly a battle, with some Big 12 schools pushing back hard while Texas was all in to get the season started.
A few statements came out that the league was going to move forward, a schedule was going to be released on Wednesday, and the season was still alive.
What really happened was the Big 12 bought time. It announced it was moving the start of the season until late September, and it would spend the next few weeks deciding what to do next.
NEXT: The ACC and SEC aren’t stopping … yet
2. The ACC and SEC aren’t stopping … yet
It might have been the key moment of the day to keep the idea of a 2020 college football season going.
The Big Ten chose not to play in the fall because of player safety, and the Pac-12 flat-out said that playing a full contact sport right now wasn’t the right move.
Twitter took the post highlighting an article by the Sports Business Journal and ran with it.
Everyone’s looking for a yes, and ACC medical adviser, Dr. Cameron Wolfe, provided it. Sort of.
In the article, Wolfe goes on to say, “Will it be tough? Yes. Will it be expensive and hard and lots of work? For sure.” He then stressed caution since this is all so unpredictable. That was more than good enough, though, in the court of public opinion.
Most interestingly, the ACC has been the steadiest rock among the Power Five conferences. The SEC is plowing forward, but it’s taking a very, very guarded approach.
It’ll be up to the respective college presidents, but commissioner Greg Sankey continued to preach patience and research. He’s taking this slow, and he’s taking everything day-by-day.
So then …
NEXT: Will there be a 2020 college football season?
1. Will there be a 2020 college football season?
There’s still hope. For now, that has to be enough.
The ACC, Big 12 and SEC aren’t saying for 100% certain that they’re all going to play. They’re saying that they’re not postponing or canceling anything quite yet.
The entire timetable is moved back a month with the season expected to start in late September. That buys the major conferences time, but in the end, that might just mean it takes a wee bit longer to reach the same conclusions the Big Ten and Pac-12 did.
The big hurdle to get over is coming – other students.
If the arrival of tens of thousands of people from all over the world into these smallish areas goes without too much of a hitch, then college football is probably on.
If college has one big collective house party over the next three weeks and there are massive outbreaks, all bets are off.
One thing is for sure, though, the debates are just starting.
Are college football players actually safer playing college football – with its medical guidance and structure – than they would be as regular students?
What’s the fallout going to be at places like Ohio State, Michigan, and USC? If everyone else is playing and the Big Ten and Pac-12 aren’t, tasteful things will be broken.
But if you’re looking for hope in all of this, and if you’re looking for a moment of happy, try this scheduling announcement that came out late on Tuesday …
Option vs. option action on November 21st.
Oh no, you’re not getting rid of 2020 college football that easily.
