Coinbase (COIN) is down more than 30% from its July highs, but analysts aren't ready to declare the rally over. Mizuho Financial — once openly skeptical of the stock — just raised its price target from $217 to $267, pointing to a rebound in July trading volumes after a sluggish Q2.
"While trading volumes were underwhelming this quarter, July has seen a rebound... reflecting improving market activity," – Mizuho analyst note, August 2025
The firm kept its neutral rating, noting that consumer spot trading fell 45% and transaction revenue dropped 39% last quarter.
Trump's Stablecoin Law Sparked the Summer Rally
Much of COIN's July surge followed President Donald Trump's signing of the GENIUS Act, the first U.S. federal law establishing a framework for stablecoins. The legislative win fueled optimism and helped Coinbase secure a spot in the S&P 500.
But the momentum didn't last. After spiking mid-July, COIN reversed course and now trades well below Mizuho's revised target of $267. Citi analysts remain far more bullish, hiking their target from $270 to $505 on expectations that regulatory clarity and rising Bitcoin prices will drive long-term growth.
Q2 Earnings Show Strength in Institutional Trading
In Q2, Coinbase reported $1.43 billion in net income, up from $66 million last quarter and just $36 million a year ago. Trading volume hit $237 billion, up slightly from $226 billion in Q2 2024, but the bulk came from institutional clients rather than retail.
Data Context: Retail Cooling, Capital on the Sidelines
According to CoinGlass, ERC-20 token activity in Coinbase custody wallets has slowed, signaling weaker altcoin demand. However, stablecoin inflows into Coinbase-linked wallets remain steady, suggesting capital is parked and ready to deploy if market sentiment improves.
DeFi Llama data shows that overall stablecoin market cap has held near yearly highs, indicating that cash reserves in crypto remain robust despite the pullback in speculative trading.
Bottom Line: Pullback or Reset?
Between Trump's stablecoin law, July's volume rebound, and strong institutional flows, Coinbase still has long-term tailwinds. The recent drop may be more of a cooldown than a collapse — but for now, COIN is clearly running in a lower gear.
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