The Coalition’s jobs-ready graduate package is set to fall tens of thousands of places short of meeting a surge in applications during the Covid-19 recession, according to a Greens analysis.
The Group of Eight universities has estimated that it has received 9,340 more applications this year compared with the same time in 2019, despite the package offering its members funding for just 572 more places in 2021.
It’s a similar story at the Regional Universities Network (RUN), where members report an increase in demand ranging from 4.7% to 41% in semester two, well above the 3.5% increase in places from 2021 offered for regional unis.
The jobs-ready graduate package unveiled by the education minister, Dan Tehan, in June proposes to reduce the overall government contribution to degrees from 58% to 52% and increase fees for some courses to pay for 39,000 extra university places by 2023, including 12,000 in 2021.
If passed by the Senate, low-growth metropolitan universities would receive funding for a 1% growth in bachelor places, up to 2.5% for high-growth metro unis and 3.5% for regional unis.
According to answers on notice to the Senate Covid inquiry, the Group of Eight had received 16,904 applications by 30 July 2020, up 123% from 7,564 in 2019. It urged a “high degree of caution” due to differences in timeframe and admissions processes at some unis, including that applications are not yet open in South Australia.
In a separate submission to the education department, the Group of Eight said the bill would add just 572 places for its members from 157,735 in 2020 to 158,307 in 2021. It said in 2021, commonwealth grant funding was set to decrease by 5%.
Once transitional funding runs out by 2024, its members “will be expected to teach an additional load of approximately 5,000 [equivalent full-time student load] with a decrease in base funding of $97m or 2.7% over the current arrangements”.
“This will affect the quality of education for domestic students, [and] is at odds with government’s supposed post-Covid needs,” it said.
According to the Greens’ analysis, if universities are to maintain a rate of 83% of applicants receiving an offer, a 25% rise in applications in 2021 would require 58,000 more places than provided by the Coalition package. The figure rises to 128,000 places for a 50% rise in applications.
Universities are also able to offer places above their caps if they are prepared to forego the government contribution.
Central Queensland University told the Covid-19 inquiry that for semester two 2020, it had received approximately a 38% increase in applications compared with 2019.
“CQU is currently overenrolled against its domestic student load for 2020, having experienced a very large increase in student demand,” it said.
“Many other Queensland universities have experienced similar enrolment increases, with the economic downturn and increase in unemployment attributable to Covid-19 being a key driver of that growth.”
CQU also warned it “may not be in a position to fully service” the increase in applications, citing “increasing difficulties in securing clinical placements in key discipline areas, such as nursing, due to the impact of Covid-19”.
The Greens education spokeswoman, Mehreen Faruqi, said according to the logic of the package, “the cruelty of the cuts and fee hikes … [is] justified by creating new places” but it was now clear it would not meet demand.
“In the Covid recession, applications are soaring and the government has no plan to handle it,” she said. “The government is denying tens of thousands of students the chance to study and retrain during the recession.”
The RUN executive director, Caroline Perkins, told Guardian Australia her members “definitely need the 3.5% [increase in places] and may well need more” but noted universities could enrol above the cap and the bill would allow universities to trade extra places.
“The alternative is that we get no growth in places and that would be even worse.”
