The Coalition is likely to win at least 73 seats and is still in the hunt to form majority government, as counting has shifted results in a number of extremely close contests.
The inclusion of postal and absentee votes on Tuesday and the recount in seats where the two parties in the lead changed produced a number of favourable results for the Coalition.
The Coalition is now projected to retain Petrie and is likely to win Grey in South Australia, where Rowan Ramsey overtook the Nick Xenophon Team’s Andrea Broadfoot in the count on Tuesday night.
According to Guardian Australia’s analysis of the latest results, the Coalition will win at least 68 seats, is leading in four more (Chisholm, Cowper, Dunkley and Grey) and the Coalition is trailing but likely to overtake Labor in one more (Flynn).
Labor will win at least 65 seats and is leading in three more contests still in-doubt (Cowan, Hindmarsh and Melbourne Ports).
There are four extremely close contests:
- Capricornia – where Labor leads by 994, but Guardian Australia’s modelling suggests the Coalition will win by 493;
- Forde – where Labor leads by 104, but the model suggests a Coalition win by 316;
- Gilmore – where the Coalition leads by 353 and is expected to win by 612; and
- Herbert – where Labor leads by 913, but the model predicts a razor-thin 10-vote win by the Coalition
The model is based on the current lead and a projection based on the difference between ordinary and special votes at the last election matched against special votes that have already been counted in the 2016 election.
Guardian Australia psephologist and election blogger Ben Raue said the Coalition could reach a 76 seat majority by winning four out of five of Flynn, Capricornia, Forde, Gilmore and Herbert.
Raue said Labor is likely to lose Flynn due to a projected “3,000-vote turnaround on special votes thanks to appalling postal votes, [for Labor]”.
“This is being borne out with the first batch last night [Tuesday].”
On Tuesday the prime minister, Malcolm Turnbull, said he remained confident of securing a majority in the parliament at the end of the current count but he acknowledged voters were clearly disillusioned with the major parties, with politics and with government.
Labor’s count of 65 seats includes the projection that Labor will retain Batman after a strong challenge from the Greens. Guardian Australia projects Labor’s David Feeney will win Batman by more than 2,000 votes, about equal to his current lead.
The ABC’s current projection shows the Coalition definitely winning 70 seats and Labor 67.
ABC psephologist Antony Green has said the Coalition will win at least 73 seats, and will therefore finish with more seats than Labor and could reach a majority.
The ABC model shows of the eight remaining undecided seats Labor leads in Capricornia, Cowan, Forde, Herbert and Hindmarsh. The Coalition leads in Chisholm, Dunkley and Gilmore, the three seats that would boost it to at least 73.
Liberal MP for Grey, Rowan Ramsey, told Radio National on Wednesday that he has not yet claimed victory because only 20% of the booths have been recounted since it became clear the result was between him and the Nick Xenophon Team candidate.
Ramsey holds a 2,100 lead over the Xenophon team’s Andrea Broadfoot.
“The indications are very good, but there are a whole swag of results coming out of the Upper Spencer [including Whyalla, Port Pirie and Port Augusta], the epicentre of the effects of the drawback of the resources industry, where we’ve had the job losses,” he said.
