Another relatively safe Coalition seat is now on a knife edge according to a new poll, with a threat to the Queensland seat of Longman held by Malcolm Turnbull’s assistant innovation minister, Wyatt Roy, by a margin of 6.9%.
A Seven Reachtel poll showed Roy, who was the youngest ever MP when he entered parliament in 2010, on 50% of the two-party preferred vote, level with his Labor opponent, former teacher’s aid and unionist, Susan Lamb.
The Longman result came after a poll for GetUp! showed Labor ahead in the northern Tasmanian seat of Bass, suggesting a 5% swing against the Liberal, Andrew Nikolic, and another round of GetUp! polling showing former minister Jamie Briggs, and possibly even innovation minister Christopher Pyne, under pressure from Nick Xenophon Team candidates in South Australia.
But the Seven Reachtel poll also suggested, nationwide, a move back to the coalition, showing a two-party preferred vote of 50%. Last week the same poll had Labor leading by 52% to 48%, although it has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.9%.
This week’s poll – taken on Thursday night with 2,414 respondents – showed the Coalition primary vote stable, Labor’s slightly lower and a higher primary vote for both the Greens and the Nick Xenophon Team.
Voters were also asked which leader they thought was “performing better” regardless of their voting intention: 51.9% nominated Bill Shorten, and 48.1% Malcolm Turnbull.
Polling aggregations, including Guardian Australia’s and one published by voting analyst William Bowe on his Pollbludger blog, also show the two-party preferred vote at around 50% all.
There are now four weeks of the election campaign remaining before the 2 July polling day.
