The Coalition is now confident it can get to 76 seats as the election count stretches into the weekend – and the Labor leader, Bill Shorten, has also conceded the Coalition is likely to “scrape over the line”.
But while a majority appears to be in reach, Malcolm Turnbull has spent the week focused on locking in support from the new crossbench as he approaches the practical difficulties of governing in the new parliament at a time when internal tensions within the Coalition remain high.
On Friday, the independents Cathy McGowan and Andrew Wilkie joined Bob Katter in backing Turnbull’s government on matters of supply and confidence. McGowan’s move to publicly back the prime minister without any expressed conditions attached took her fellow crossbenchers by surprise.
South Australian Nick Xenophon, who will have one MP in the house and a voting bloc in the Senate in the new parliament, has yet to make any public declarations about supporting Turnbull.
He has continued talking to the prime minister about the future of the troubled steel manufacturer Arrium. “We hope to find common ground,” Xenophon told Guardian Australia on Friday night. “We want to go through a number of issues.”
Bob Katter also told Guardian Australia on Friday night that he had made it absolutely clear to the prime minister that his guarantee of support was conditional on Turnbull proceeding with his wish list, which includes two big irrigation projects in north Queensland, a rail line into the Galilee Basin, a canal and land tenure rights for Indigenous Australians in Cape York.
“Malcolm Turnbull left me with the distinct impression he was very sincere about developing infrastructure ... it seems to me that he realises they’ve been going in the wrong direction,” Katter said of their discussion in Brisbane on Thursday.
He said he would have no hesitation in withdrawing support if the undertakings were not honoured, but he believed Turnbull had now become “disabused of free market theory”.
Labor met in Canberra for the first time since the election on Friday, and Shorten warned that any new Coalition government would be inherently unstable. He predicted that Australians would be back at the polls within a year owing to Turnbull’s lack of authority.
“The combination of a prime minister with no authority, a government with no direction and a Liberal party at war with itself could see Australians back at the polls within the year,” he told the caucus.
The Labor leader said the opposition would “respect the judgment of the people and be true to our policies and propositions upon which we sought the support which we received”.
“But we will be campaign-ready from this day onwards,” he said.
The Coalition faces many difficulties if it goes on to form government, the most pressing of which involves the lack of broad-based parliamentary support for key elements of its budget and election manifesto.
Following a warning by S&P on Thursday that the chances of a credit downgrade had increased post-election, Xenophon said on Friday the government should keep the 2% temporary deficit levy in place until the deficit was under control.
“If you’re earning more than $180,000 a year, I don’t think it’s too onerous to be paying an extra couple of per cent in tax to pay your fair share,” he said.
“That’s something that will only affect a very small percentage of taxpayers, including all federal MPs who are over that threshold. And I’m happy to pay that levy.”
Labor and the Greens proposed keeping the deficit levy permanently as part of their recent election commitments, but the government opposed the move. Xenophon said the Coalition should consider raising the Medicare levy a “smidgin” too, for the same reason.
He also wants the government to consider giving the auditor-general powers to monitor the effectiveness of government spending and programs – “including the billions of dollars the commonwealth provides to the states,” he said.
“Taxpayers need to be able to demand both transparency and a greater efficiency in the way that government programs are implemented.”
By Friday afternoon, the latest official election count had the Coalition sitting on 72 declared seats, with one more seat, Gilmore in New South Wales, likely to increase that count to 73.
The party needs 76 seats to form majority government.
Labor was still sitting on 66 seats, but Cowan looks likely to fall its way.
If Gilmore and Cowan go as expected, that would leave the Coalition three seats short of a majority, with five seats left in play.
These five are:
- Capricornia - Labor leads by 175
- Flynn - Labor leads by 7
- Forde - LNP leads by 471
- Herbert - Labor leads by 352
- Hindmarsh - Labor leads by 71
On Friday night, the Coalition was bullish about the prospect of holding at least some of its Queensland seats, which would bring the final tally to 76, or perhaps 77. The AEC will continue counting in close seats on Saturday, and possibly into Sunday.
