The Coalition has slipped one point to be deadlocked with Labor at 50% apiece, according to the second Newspoll since Malcolm Turnbull ousted Tony Abbott as prime minister.
The slight fall, which is within the poll’s margin of error, erodes the five-point bounce the Coalition gained in the first such poll after the leadership challenge that Turnbull justified on the basis the government had lagged behind Labor for 30 successive Newspolls.
But the poll, published by the Australian to coincide with the resumption of parliament on Monday, also shows Turnbull has consolidated a 38-point lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister. And a clear majority of voters has endorsed the leadership change.
The first post-spill Newspoll, taken three weeks ago, indicated Turnbull had propelled the Coalition to a two-party lead over Labor of 51% to 49%, which was a five-point bounce compared with the 46% support the government mustered in Abbott’s final Newspoll.
Monday’s poll showed the main parties tied at 50% after the distribution of preferences. The Coalition attracted primary vote support of 43%, down one point in the past three weeks, while the Greens gained one point to 12% and Labor remained steady on 35%.
The poll of 1,631 voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 3%.
Turnbull mustered 57% support as preferred prime minister, compared with 19% for Shorten.
Turnbull’s approval rating rose eight points in the past three weeks to 50%, while disapproval rose one point to 25%, for a net satisfaction score of plus 25. The Australian reported that it was best score for a prime minister since Kevin Rudd in late 2009.
Over the same period, Shorten’s net satisfaction score remained steady at minus 25, based on approval of 28% and disapproval of 53%. Net satisfaction is calculated by taking subtracting the disapproval rating from the approval rating.
The latest Newspoll also included a one-off question about whether the Liberal party did the right thing to replace Abbott with Turnbull. About 62% of people supported the decision, 27% opposed it and 11% did not express a view.
When the results were broken down, 56% of Coalition voters backed the switch while 36% opposed it.
Turnbull specifically referred to the Coalition’s entrenched poor standing in Newspoll when he challenged Abbott’s leadership four weeks ago, saying the then prime minister was on track to lead the government to defeat at the next election, due in 2016.
Since the leadership change, Turnbull has distinguished himself from his predecessor by dumping a ban on federal funding for public transport projects, putting all options back on the table for tax reform, opening the door to talks with Labor on the China-Australia free trade agreement and emphasising the need for “mutual respect” in the fight against violent extremism.
The new education minister, Simon Birmingham, has also delayed by a year the proposed start date for university funding cuts and fee deregulation to enable further consultation with the sector and crossbenchers about the stalled and unpopular plan.
But Turnbull has faced claims from Labor of “selling out” on his beliefs, because he has not immediately shifted course on Abbott’s Direct Action climate policy or the plan to hold a national vote on same-sex marriage some time in the next parliamentary term.
Turnbull has left the door open to change policies by emphasising that governments need to be “agile” and adapt their programs as needed. The government is planning a full review of the so-called “safeguards” mechanism in its climate policy within a year of it starting, amid doubts that it could achieve the greenhouse emission reductions the Coalition was banking on.
In a sign of the need to heal wounds within his ranks, Turnbull was jeered by some delegates at the New South Wales state council meeting on Saturday when he argued the party was “not run by factions”. On Sunday he played down the reaction as merely being “constructive feedback”.
Guardian Australia revealed that an advocate of party reform had accused NSW delegates of failing to reflect the wishes of grassroots members by slowing the pace of a shift to local votes for preselections.
Turnbull invited Coalition MPs and senators to a barbecue in the prime minister’s courtyard on Sunday on the eve of parliament’s resumption.
The forthcoming sitting fortnight represents the first major test for ministers in new roles. Ministers are set to face parliamentary question time for the first time since the cabinet reshuffle. Next week the House of Representatives will sit for a second week but senators will be busy with budget estimates hearings, when government officials face sustained scrutiny.
Abbott, who maintained in post-spill interviews that he would have won the next election, is expected to take his seat on the backbench this week, having avoided the chamber in the days after he was deposed as prime minister.
The China-Australia free trade agreement is likely to be one of the main items of business. Labor is due to spell out its proposed changes to the Migration Act to “safeguard” domestic job opportunities after the implementation of the deal.
Labor’s trade spokeswoman, Penny Wong, said the “complementary” measures would be “non-discriminatory” in their effect and would not require renegotiation of the agreement with Beijing.
“Now will be the time for Malcolm Turnbull to demonstrate he’s not Tony Abbott and that he’s prepared to have a conversation based on facts with the opposition in the national interest,” she told the ABC’s Insiders program on Sunday.
The trade minister, Andrew Robb, said the government was “happy to talk about anything that might assist this process, but we’re not going to discriminate against China and we’re not going to change the fundamentals”.
“If they show us something of substance and we think it doesn’t in any way compromise what we’ve agreed to, we’ll look at it,” he told Sky News on Sunday.
Shorten, who marks his second anniversary as Labor leader, is expected to consult the party caucus on the plan this week. In the past month he has outlined policies on higher education, innovation and infrastructure.
