As soon as parliament opened for business, we got a glimpse of the endgame.
Without the necessary majority, the Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) has no choice but to kowtow to the kingmakers -- Bhumjaithai and the Democrats.
As there are only a limited number of portfolios to be shared among some 20 coalition parties, infighting and conflict will be severe.
With the new government set to enjoy only a super-slim, single-digit majority, political players and observers will be settling down to watch a new season of the same story, inevitably ending with another poll cliffhanger.
If the March 24 poll was a resetting of the political landscape -- a test to determine who stands on which side of the political spectrum -- the next one will be a confirmation of conviction, a test of character.
As self-interest and political horse-trading define the aftermath of an election that many hoped would return Thailand to democracy, voters have been forced to gaze upon scenes nauseously reminiscent of the coalition politics of the 80s.
The last election was decided by what politicians said. The next one will be based on what they did. Policies will still matter. So will brand loyalty. But the winning card will lie in how they react to the politics of polarisation that are playing out in parliament now.
Those that stay true to their roots and campaign promises are likely to retain their majorities. Those that swing, that took the voters' trust for granted and went back on their word to seek personal benefits, are likely to suffer a setback as politics undergoes yet another realignment.
The betrayals may not be a big deal if the new government completes a full term of four years. Voters do not necessarily have long memories and it is usually the issues of the day that define the results of an election.
But as became evident from the first few days of the new parliament, political jockeying prevailed, especially during the vote to elect a House speaker and deputies. The wheeling and dealing is likely to continue even after the PPRP has set up a coalition government and cast Prime Minister Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha in the lead role once more.
The PPRP may enjoy support from the military and establishment but its position in parliament remains weak. As the coalition leader, its 115 MPs are way too few to make a difference. Without help from the Democrat and Bhumjaithai (BJT) swing blocs, the new government will not be able to push through any major policies.
The kingmakers definitely know how advantageous their positions are and there is no reason why they will not exploit this.
How long can the marriage of convenience last when the coalition partners are bound to fight against one another to advance their agendas? Will the PPRP, which has relied heavily on bureaucrats, throw its weight behind the BJT's promise to legalise Grab taxi? What will the PPRP do if the Democrat Party, a very likely coalition partner, seeks to amend a charter viewed as the key to its political rise?
The PPRP's prime ministerial candidate Gen Prayut might have been a draw during the campaign but he could ultimately end up becoming a liability.
Without the absolute power of Section 44, the strongman might become brittle. Who knows when Gen Prayut will first blow his top during a parliamentary session? Will the former dictator have the patience to strike a deal with some 20 parties and hundreds of politicians, most if not all of whom are veterans of the parliamentary game? Will the former PM, who apparently regards himself above most other politicians, be able to cope with the criticism and scathing remarks that will fly across the floor of the House?
Despite his charisma as a former military leader and coup-maker, the temperamental Gen Prayut is unlikely to fare well in parliament. Stripped of his absolute power, the PM may not be adept at collaboration or compromise. He is unlikely to be able to hold a cumbersome coalition together for long.
If this is how the plot plays out, the precious swing blocs will suffer the most during this season's parliamentary soap opera. Former Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva made a clear, unequivocal statement that he would not support Gen Prayut as the next PM. Now his party is set to join the coalition. It does not matter that Mr Abhisit resigned as leader. It's a matter of principle.
The story is similar for the BJT. The party is perceived to have been playing both the Pheu Thai and PPRP sides off against each other in order to boost its bargaining power. Judging by reactions from the party's own voters, one of whom burned a Buriram United shirt in protest at Anutin Charnvirakul's decision to join the coalition, the BJT will have a lot to explain if it has to hit the campaign trail again.
Yet another reboot of the franchise could be just around the corner.
Atiya Achakulwisut is a columnist, Bangkok Post.
