Entering Week 8, only one head coach has been relieved of his duties, Jay Gruden in Washington. Several are hanging by a thread, however. The yearly ritual kicks off the day after (sometimes even the day of) the final regular-season games are complete – appropriately labeled Black Monday. This year many teams may get a head start, especially if a certain well-known collegiate head coach appears to be available.
Teams in the hunt, in order of most likely to fire their head coach:
- Washington: The Skins dismissed Gruden during the season. Bill Callahan is doing a nice job but it is unlikely he will be a serious candidate. Rumors of their interest in Mike Tomlin are just that: rumors
- Atlanta: Dan Quinn’s calling card is defense but the Falcons are a sieve on that side of the ball. Making matters worse, it appears his team has quit on him. Big changes appear on the way in Atlanta
- Los Angeles Chargers: The Bolts are perennially a playoff contender but have failed miserably in the postseason. They typically start the regular season slowly before making a run at the playoffs. This season feels much different than years past which could likely cost Anthony Lynn his job.
- New York Giants: The G-Men have some nice pieces but Pat Shurmur needs a turnaround this year or his days could be numbered. Shurmur’s career record is 17-39 in total with a record in New York of 7-16. The heat is on the former Browns head coach.
- Denver: Vic Fangio waited a lifetime for a chance to become an NFL head coach but it may be short-lived. It certainly would not be fair to part with Fangio, but with the way the Broncos are trending the entire house could be cleaned
- Jacksonville: Doug Marrone is now 19-22 as head coach of the Jaguars. They have shown promise at times but have not lived up to the billing. Tom Coughlin could pull the plug.
- Dallas: Jason Garrett will likely have his team in the playoffs with the odds in their favor in the NFC East. However, the expectations are high for a team that Garrett has not coached past the divisional round. If they fail to reach the conference championship game and Lincoln Riley is available, you just know owner Jerry Jones will make the move
- Houston: Bill O’Brien is in the same boat as Jason Garrett. He must succeed this year, especially given the trades he made which were win-now type of transactions. The Texans are talented but must prove it in the postseason or O’Brien could be giving the old heave-hoe as both the head coach and de facto GM.
- New York Jets: It is unlikely Adam Gase will be removed after one season but he tends to rub people the wrong way – players and front office alike. The season appears to be a lost one which could result in more changes for Gang Green.
- Cleveland: Expectations for a team led by a first-year head coach are typically low, but that was not the case for the 2019 Browns. Following a tough loss to the Seahawks, reports surfaced stating Freddie Kitchens was almost fired. Those were obviously untrue but the pressure is certainly on. Fortunately for Kitchens, the schedule softens which should keep him as HC heading into the 2020 campaign.
- Pittsburgh: The Steelers have not been an organization prone to knee-jerk reactions. However, it is possible they may try to trade Mike Tomlin and/or decide it is time for a new direction.
With the season approaching the half way point – other teams could certainly be in position to make a change at the end of the season. In the NFL, many owners are anything but patient. Without a specific team in mind for any of them, here are my top coaching candidates:
- Josh McDaniels, OC, New England. McDaniels has a wealth of experience, including failure as a head coach in Denver, which shortens the learning curve. He has worked on both sides of the ball and continues to prove his wares with innovative play-calling and formations. He is bright, young and hungry. If he can be pried out of New England, McDaniels will be worth every penny.
- Matt Rhule, HC, Baylor: The stigma regarding college coaches is frankly false. Rhule has worked on both sides of the ball and had a season as a positional coach with the New York Giants. He is a brilliant tactician and team builder. He has a firm grasp of the long-term plan and is an excellent communicator.
- Lincoln Riley, HC, Oklahoma: His offensive concepts would work in the modern NFL. He teaches a QB friendly offense and provides tremendous insight into how a game plan works from game to game. The key would be putting a great defensive staff together. Make no mistake, Riley will be in high demand if he is open to a jump to the pros.
- Mike McCarthy: Sitting out the season following his dismissal from the Packers last season, no head coaching candidate will possess his level of resume. He owns a career winning percentage of .618 with 125 wins including a Super Bowl trophy with the Packers. He will be in high demand.
- Matt Eberflus, DC, Indianapolis: Eberflus has performed a tremendous job with a Colts defense that does not have an abundance of talent. He has his squad playing fundamentally sound football. He has been around the block and knows the pro game.
- Matt Campbell, HC, Iowa State: Campbell has done a tremendous job coaching the Iowa State Cyclones. He is a team builder who — like Rhule – in many matchups has less talent to work with than his opponent. Regardless, his teams play smart and win games. He is a grinder
- Kevin Stefanski, OC, Minnesota: He reportedly was a finalist for the Cleveland Browns opening last year. Stefanski has done a tremendous job with balance for the Vikings. He will likely have a successful remainder of the season with a playoff berth a distinct possibility to bolster his resume.
- Wink Martindale, DC, Baltimore: He is a character that relates to his players. Track record of success and player loyalty. Despite key personnel losses, Martindale has his defense once again playing at a high level. He eats and breaths football plus gets the psychology of the players
- Kris Richard, DBs/passing game, Dallas: Tremendous energy and enthusiasm. Bright guy who has served under tremendous defensive coaches. His side of the ball hasn’t performed as well this year but Richard has a bright future
- Nick Sirianni, OC, Indianapolis: The Colts offense is balanced and smart, however, it is difficult to fully grasp Sirianni’s role in their success. Frank Reich is an excellent HC and play-caller. There is a fascination with anyone associated with LA’s Sean McVay, and there should be the same with Reich.
- Greg Roman, OC, Baltimore: Roman has shown the ability to design an offense around his QB. He would not be a sexy hire, but Roman is an old-school coach who would be successful on the offensive side of the ball. He possesses an excellent resume.
- Kellen Moore, OC, Dallas: Moore would be a risky hire due to age (31) and inexperience but has done a tremendous job thus far with the Cowboys. Innovative play designs speaks to his intellect. Leading a full team is the biggest question mark but his scruples for the offense cannot be denied
Others: Dan Campbell, Eric Bieniemy, Kevin O’Connell
