Police, the Royal Thai Armed Forces and various security agencies have brought a huge credibility gap to the new upsurge of violence in the deep South. As of now, depending on which official has taken the podium, the bombings including the severing of Songkhla's iconic mermaid are political and non-political, either the work of separatist bandits or not, and have either a national or local motive -- but not both. Over the weekend, the Fourth Army commander said it might be local politicians, which seems a head-shaker.
What is known is that explosions began at 10pm on Dec 26. The first targets were local landmarks, all the more treasured for that. The "golden" (actually bronzed) statue of a mermaid atop a rock at Samila Beach had survived 52 years with only light maintenance. The initial explosion was a relatively small bomb compared with other terroristic devices used in this long, low-key war. It effectively cut Jitr Buabus' creation into two pieces, head and tail.
Meanwhile, about 300 metres away, the second explosion occurred at the large Cat and Rat Statue. A tourist attraction on its own and much loved by southerners, the large sculpture celebrates local legends and the small offshore islands called Koh Nu and Koh Maew -- Rat and Cat. There was virtually no damage to this statue, which attests to the relative weakness of the bombs.
After Wednesday night, there have been bomb explosions in the other three provinces of the deep South -- Narathiwat, Yala and Pattani. The targets were the same as those of separatists since 2004. They are inevitably remote and tend to include power poles. While toppling the poles produces a widespread advertisement for the attackers' achievements, it's also a nuisance that could be replicated by any schoolboy. It only serves to reduce what little support is left for the bombers.
The question is who they are, and at first glance some of the official guesses are bizarre. On Sunday, Lt Gen Pornsak Surasak, commander of the 4th Army Region, came up with a jaw-dropper. In his opinion, "local political rivals" could be behind the attacks. Even assuming that southern politicians would resort to four-province bombing attacks -- and there is no evidence they ever have -- the reasoning is opaque. Damaging the mermaid statue, and toppling telephone poles, do not seem a viable method to "get even" for local feuds.
Meanwhile, directly at odds with army Lt Gen Pornsak, Region 9 police have declared what the bomb attacks are not: politically motivated. Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwon, in charge of national security, said the bombings "might" be political but definitely are not the work of separatists. An intelligence source told the Bangkok Post news desk it appears that the attacks are the work of the Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN), the biggest and most active group still dedicated to violence in the region.
The country deserves better explanations. It is disheartening to realise that, as the southern violence enters its 15th year on Friday, authorities are not just grasping for explanations, they actually are totally at odds with each other. A full 14 years has not been enough for the security forces to develop reliable sources, let alone usefully infiltrate the enemy. It is telling that the powerful military arm of the prime minister's office, the Internal Security Operations Command (Isoc), has been almost alone in refusing to place responsibility for the past week of violence.
The government is on the verge of once again attempting to start "peace talks" in the region. The BRN has, as recently as November, openly refused to take part. Whoever is behind the latest week of attacks has achieved national notoriety, showing that security forces still can't get a firm grip on bringing full security to the four southernmost provinces.
