We don't need a betting company to tell us that Tadej Pogačar is the favourite to win the Tour de France this month. However, as if to underline the fact, William Hill has now offered its shortest ever odds for the UAE Team Emirates-XRG rider to pull on the yellow jersey in Paris – 4/11.
That means for every £11 you put down, you'll get a princely four back. It's not the most attractive wager, but if the form book is anything to go by it's about as close to a dead cert that you'll get. (Subject to crashes, illness, off-days, and all the rest of it, of course, so please don't take our word for that).
By contrast, odds on Pogačar's rivals Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike) and Remco Evenepoel (Soudal Quick-Step) are far better, with the Dane showing 21-10 and Evenepoel way back with 12-1.
As for Primož Roglič (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe), oldest of the 'big four', you'll get £25 back for every pound you put down.
The Tour begins in Lille on Saturday with a 184.9km stage based on the French city, and runs until Sunday July 27, when it finishes in Paris.
Not surprisingly, Pogačar's chances in the eyes of betting companies have only increased over the years and coincidentally back in 2020 – his first ever Tour – he was given the same odds as Evenepoel this year: 12-1
With Pogačar running out the victor in 2020 and 2021, those odds fell dramatically over the next couple of years, down to 13-8 in 2021 and 3-5 in 2022 – the year Vingegaard took over. Incidentally, the Visma-Lease a Bike rider was listed at 17-1 that year. You're unlikely to see those kinds of odds for him again for a very long time.
Pogačar's 4-11 seems to be the most popular odds for the three-time Slovenian winner, but you can also get better and worse.
A number of bookmakers are offering 33/100 – so you get less back even than with 4/11. While one is offering a more favourable 9/20 and two others 4/9.
The best odds for Vingegaard are 11/4 and 14/5.
Of course, predictions are one thing, but as any bike racing fan knows, a misplaced pothole or mechanical – and even a single missed gel – can rapidly upturn everything we thought we knew was going to happen. Only the road can decide.
