Hillary Clinton’s summer ends abruptly on Monday. For several weeks, the presidential frontrunner has toured the homes of America’s rich and famous, hosted by Justin Timberlake, welcomed by Magic Johnson and serenaded by Jimmy Buffett, Jon Bon Jovi and Paul McCartney.
It all helped swell Democratic coffers by a record $143m in August, crucial ammunition for the 64 days of TV advertising left between now and the general election. It also allowed an exhausted campaign to recharge its batteries following months on the road and July’s convention in Philadelphia.
But on Labor Day, Clinton swaps the beaches of Cape Cod and Long Island for the rust-belt towns of Ohio and Iowa, scenes of her bruising primary race against Bernie Sanders and home to a stubbornly loyal pockets of blue-collar support for Donald Trump.
She won’t be alone. Monday’s events in Cleveland and the Quad Cities, industrial towns bordering Iowa and Illinois, will debut a new campaign plane, large enough to carry the traveling reporters who were hitherto consigned to tagging along behind.
Journalists have complained for months about a lack of access to Clinton, who has not held a conference for 276 days. Her campaign has accused the media of fixating on that daily tally and ignoring the interviews she gives to select cable anchors or local news stations.
“This 257 days nonsense is ludicrous. When has it been the norm that a presidential candidate regularly does press conferences?” spokesman Nick Merrill askedreporters on Thursday. He then promised one “soon”.
The new aircraft is nothing if not symbolic: it launches the start of an intense period of travel and scrutiny during the debates and rallies before election day on 8 November.
The plane also provides room for key Clinton aides to escape their headquarters in Brooklyn and gain important time with the boss. Her loyal gatekeeper Huma Abedin will likely stand guard, returning to the plane after a period of absence that aides insist has nothing to do with the very public break-up of her marriage to former congressman Anthony Weiner.
Campaign manager Robby Mook and chairman John Podesta have their own challenge: working out where to direct the plane. Some campaign destinations are obvious, such as the swing states of Ohio, Florida, New Hampshire, Nevada, Iowa and North Carolina. Some in rust-belt states such as Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan are getting more attention this time thanks to Trump’s appeal to the white working class. Colorado and Virginia look well out of his reach.
The bigger question is whether to take the battle into enemy territory. Trump has proved so unpopular among some Republican voters, minorities and women, that deep red territory is perhaps in play. States such as Arizona, Utah and Georgia, which haven’t voted Democrat in decades, could be vulnerable in the winner-take-all electoral college system – and Clinton has superior fundraising and a vastly more organised network of campaign offices.
Her campaign is at least testing the waters. On Friday, Clinton began airing TV ads in Arizona, where Mitt Romney beat Barack Obama by nearly 10 points. Clinton’s husband is the only Democrat to have won the state in a presidential election since 1952.
Her campaign is also spending money in Nebraska, one of two states that splits electoral college votes and therefore offers Clinton a chance to peel off electors from the relatively liberal city of Omaha. Even Utah, where Trump has riled conservative Mormons, has seen the Clinton campaign open a field office.
Whether these moves amount to a radical new strategy or clever feints to trick Trump is not clear. Some inside Clinton’s Brooklyn headquarters are reportedly cheering that moves into Republican heartlands appear to have Trump spending time and money in places he ought to take for granted – for instance, by staging a major immigration speech in Arizona.
Yet the confidence could easily become complacency too. Clinton’s healthy lead following the party’s convention has eroded in recent weeks, slipping down to the low single digits in some key states. Not only are the headline polls too close for comfort, but Americans still stubbornly dislike Clinton and Trump by enormous margins. A record number of Americans now say they dislike Clinton, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll that showed 41% of Americans have a favorable impression of her, while 56% have an unfavorable one.
Though she enjoys a powerful coalition of support in Washington, particularly from the Obama administration, political surrogates cannot necessarily translate her shower their popularity on friends.
“This ain’t over man. This is not over,” Joe Biden warned at a rally for Clinton in Cleveland on Thursday, where one supporter confessed he was actually planning to vote Trump but came along because he just liked the vice-president.
The scepticism of many independent voters may also help explain the decision by Clinton’s communications director Jennifer Palmieri to shield the candidate from the rough-and-tumble of open press conferences, where generally risks are high and rewards low.
Clinton’s campaign has expressed frustration with the questions of trustworthiness, particularly over her private emails system that appear to reinforce a reputation of favoritism and privilege built up by the Clintons. Aides also complain that she does not get the recognition she deserves for developing many more new policy ideas than most candidates.
“People criticise me for having so many plans,” Clinton told a lukewarm audience of military veterans in Cincinnati on Wednesday. “People say, Oh there she goes with another plan about mental health, or whatever,” she added. “But I have this old fashioned idea that if you are going to ask to be president if you have to have a plan.”
Yet the campaign is under no illusion about the nature of this year’s fight. If hunkering down away from the press while outspending Trump – she has raised more money than the GDP of small Pacific nations – is what it takes to beat him, then so be it.
“This is not a normal election,” Clinton said at the American Legion convention in Cincinnati. “This election shouldn’t be about ideology, it’s not just about differences over policy. It’s about who has the experience and temperament to serve as president and commander and chief.”
“The stakes this fall are as high as any election in our lifetimes.”
Key players
Huma Abedin, Clinton’s right-hand woman and gatekeeper. Robby Mook, the campaign manager in charge of her election machine. John Podesta, family friend, campaign chairman and former chief of staff to Bill Clinton. Jennifer Palmieri, former Obama communications director now fielding flak for Clinton. Neera Tanden, key figure in transition team preparing the clan for power.
Signature policies
The campaign slogan “stronger together” captures Clinton’s broad belief in a more socially inclusive America, but the underlying policies range widely from a jobs program and infrastructure spending, to making college more affordable and tackling climate change. On trade and social security, she has moved to the left, rhetorically, at least.
Strongest points
Clinton’s experience as secretary of state, senator and activist first lady make her one of the most qualified candidates to run for office. Supporters also point to her resilience in the face of setbacks, long track record of social activism and historic achievement as the first woman nominee of a major party.
Weakest points
The biggest handicap according to opinion polls is a perceived lack of trust among voters, something exacerbated by years of attacks on Clinton family “scandals” and an ongoing controversy over her private email server. Voters sometimes also talk about finding her inauthentic and lacking warmth.
Core supporters
African Americans, women, Latinos, college-educated men – in short, a vast swath of the increasingly diverse US electorate. Geographically, the strongest support for Democrats is heavily concentrated on the coasts however.
