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The Guardian - US
The Guardian - US
World
Nicky Woolf

Trump and Clinton net big wins but Sanders and Cruz also see gains – as it happened

Interactive
Results – live.

Here's what we learned on Super Saturday

This was a big day for second-place candidates, as Ted Cruz and Bernie Sanders grab several morale-boosting states.

  • Marco Rubio may not be able to go the distance, as Ted Cruz maneouvres into the “only candidate who can stop Trump” spot after several dismal showings from the Florida senator, who now is pinning all his hopes on his home state.
  • Bernie Sanders regains some momentum, picking up wins in (admittedly non-diverse) caucuses in Nebraska and Kansas.
  • But Hillary Clinton maintains her commanding delegate lead of around 200, however, with an easy win in the Louisiana primary.
  • Trump really, really wants “to take on Ted, one-on-one.” Which reflects that Rubio’s only real purpose in this race now is to take Florida delegates away from the frontrunner.
  • Ted Cruz won two victories by surprising margins in Maine and Kansas, though Trump put the former down to Maine’s proximity to Canada.
  • The Maine Republican party likes to talk. A lot. Taking maybe 15 minutes to get to the point with their results.
  • Trump supporters alleged voter fraud in Kansas, though Trump didn’t reference it in his speech.
  • What he did reference, however, was his worry that moderate conservatives might run a third-party candidate against him, appealing to conservative worries about Supreme Court justices. “The Democrats would have an absolute free run,” he said.
  • Trump has, he claims, “taken more questions from reporters than anybody who has ever lived.”

Updated

And Trump is finished.

Trump: “we’re going to knock off ISIS so violently, and so fast.” Calls them “a group of animals.”

Question asked about waterboarding. “A very touchy subject,” Trump says. “I am very in favour of waterboarding; if we can, I want to do much more than that.” Repeats his statement from earlier that “we are playing a different set of rules than ISIS.”

“They drown people in cages, and here we are talking about waterboarding,” he says.

“I will be the most presidential candidate in history other than honest Abe Lincoln,” Trump says. “But when I get attacked by these people at a low level, I have to attack back.”

“Marco attacked me viciously. So far, everyone who’s attacked me, has gone down. Look at his numbers.”

CNN’s Jim Acosta asks Trump about “the thing about the size of your manhood, if you’ll forgive me.” Boos in the room. Trump says “Marco brought it up, the size of my hands. You shouldn’t even be bringing this up, to be honest with you. Everyone says, you have strong hands.”

Trump says he has “taken more questions from reporters than anybody who has ever lived.” Which seems unlikely.

Update: the question from David was about gay marriage.

Now we’re back on Rubio:

A reporter called David asks about a position - we can’t hear what. “David. You know my position. David. Sit down. David. Sit down.”

Now he takes a few questions from “these dishonest people, the press.”

We couldn’t hear the question, but Trump loved it. “Lyin’ Ted! I love this guy. I love this reporter. Where have you been as a reporter?” He goes on a riff against Ted Cruz.

Trump mocks Hillary Clinton’s campaign slogan - “make America whole? I think she means, we’re in a deep hole.”

Trump is now promising that his nomination for the Supreme Court “will make conservatives very happy.” He’s making an almost plaintive request to conservatives not to run a third-party candidate against him. “The Democrats would have an absolute free run. What does that mean? That means that automatically they are going to appoint very, very very liberal judges.”

“I would love to take on Ted one-on-one,” Trump says. “I want Ted one-on-one.”

But, he calls for Marco Rubio to drop out of the race.

Trump is now speaking - finally - in Florida

“It’s been an amazing night - I’ve been in competitions my whole life, and there’s nothing more exciting than this stuff,” Trump says.

He thanks the people of Louisiana and Kentucky, and praises Rand Paul for “fighting hard, fighting us every inch of the way.”

He congratulates Cruz, then makes the easy joke: “he should do well in Maine, because it’s very close to Canada.”

Trump responds to the Kentucky call:

He’s due to speak any moment now in Florida.

The AP calls Kentucky for Donald Trump

On the scene at Trump’s press conference, which has been imminent for a couple of hours now:

With almost 70 percent of caucus sites reporting, including Jefferson County, where Louisville is, Trump’s lead is still holding at around four percent in Kentucky.

Kentucky
Kentucky Photograph: The Guardian

Updated

Four percentage points now separate Trump and Cruz in Kentucky. Not much more separates them in Louisiana.

Worth noting: with still less than 50 percent of votes counted, Ted Cruz is creeping up behind Donald Trump in Louisiana. Fewer than 10,000 votes now separate them. We may yet see an upset.

Rubio spokesperson Alex Conant desperately spinning today’s utterly dismal results for the Florida senator:

Trump’s lead in Kentucky remains, but is shrinking.

With just under 42 percent of caucus sites reporting, Trump leads Ted Cruz 38.2 percent to 31.9 percent.

A false start for Donald Trump’s press conference in Florida:

Trump supporters have taken to twitter to allege voter fraud in Kansas. They’re pretty angry.

It remains to be seen whether Trump will address this in his imminent press conference.

A small helping of good news for the Rubio campaign; early returns out of Louisiana show him outperforming previous polls.

A delegate-count update from the Associated Press:

Bernie Sanders’ win in Nebraska means he will pick up more delegates than Hillary Clinton. But it won’t dent the substantial lead Clinton has in the overall AP delegate count.

With 25 Nebraska delegates at stake, Sanders is assured of receiving at least 14. Clinton will pick up at least 10.

Also voting on Saturday were Democrats in Kansas and Louisiana. Up for grabs were a total of 109 delegates.

The Democratic Party in Kansas announced Sanders had won its caucus, but had not yet released vote totals.

Going into the weekend contests, Clinton had held a comfortable 198-delegate lead over Sanders, based on results from primaries and caucuses.

Clinton’s lead is even greater when including superdelegates, the party officials who can support any candidate they wish.

Including results from Nebraska, she now has at least 1,076 delegates according to The Associated Press count, compared to 446 for Sanders. It takes 2,383 delegates to win.

And on the Republican side:

Ted Cruz is nibbling away at Donald Trump’s lead in the race for delegates to the Republican National Convention this summer.

Cruz picked up 36 delegates by winning Republican caucuses in Kansas and Maine on Saturday. Donald Trump won 18 delegates, Marco Rubio won six and John Kasich added three.

There are a total of 155 Republican delegates at stake Saturday in Kansas, Maine, Kentucky and Louisiana. No GOP delegates have yet been allocated in Kentucky or Louisiana.

In the overall race for delegates, Trump has 347 and Cruz has 267. Rubio has 116 delegates and Kasich has 28.

It takes 1,237 delegates to win the Republican nomination for president.

Donald Trump wins Louisiana

The Associated Press has called the Louisiana primary for Donald Trump.

Trump is expected to speak shortly at a press conference in West Palm Beach, Florida.

Updated

This came in earlier from Ben Jacobs, about an important endorsement for John Kasich:

The full release:

Today Michael Reagan endorsed Gov. John Kasich for President of the United States. Said Reagan, “You see many Republicans claiming the label of ‘Reagan conservative’ but not many whose leadership truly embodies my father’s principles and spirit.

Gov. John Kasich is a noteworthy exception. As a Member of Congress, he made a name for himself as a problem-solver and a diplomat when he worked across the aisle to balance the federal budget. As Governor of Ohio, he used conservative, commonsense reforms to breathe new life into a state that was undergoing a painful decline. I’m confident that his record of success, his vision for America and his ability to bring people together is exactly what our country needs in the midst of division and uncertainty. To continue my father’s great legacy, I’m proud to endorse John Kasich for President of the United States.”

The son of former President Ronald Reagan and Academy-award winning actress Jane Wyman, Michael Reagan is a best-selling author, former radio host of 26 years and prominent national speaker on issues related to conservative politics and adoption. As president of the Reagan Legacy Foundation, he plays an active role in numerous charitable organizations.

Said Kasich, “There is no leader I could hope to emulate more than President Ronald Reagan. No one understands his impact on our country more than his son Michael, so to receive this endorsement is a tremendous honor for me. Just as President Reagan’s indomitable optimism and capable leadership filled America with new hope, I will do my upmost to honor his legacy by offering experience and vision that can steer our country to better days.”

Marco Rubio, in a press conference, is defending his dismal showing today.

The AP projects Hillary Clinton to win Louisiana

The former secretary of state is speaking right now in Detroit, Michigan.

“I want you to know that if I’m fortunate enough to be our party’s nominee, I’m going to work hard to bring back the Michigan Democratic party,” she says.

Bernie Sanders’s win in Kansas is not surprising – he was projected to win there. But it’s not surprising for another reason, reports John Stoehr.

Candidates more or less outside the mainstream of each of the parties tend to perform better in caucus states, because caucuses require much more of party members than primaries.

Primaries are secret ballots and can be done as long as the polls are open. Caucuses require party members to listen to speeches and then decide. In some cases, voters have to justify their votes. All in public.

Those kinds of demands on party members are not for those only marginally interested in politics. And let’s face it, most Americans are only marginally interested in politics.

Caucuses attract the most ideological party voters. Caucuses reward the most ideological voters.

Attorneys for Army Sgt. Bowe Bergdahl have asked Donald Trump for a meeting to determine whether to seek a deposition or call him as a witness at a hearing, reports the Associated Press:

Bergdahl’s attorney, Army Lt. Col. Franklin Rosenblatt, asks the presidential contender in a Saturday-dated letter for an interview to discuss his comments about Bergdahl. The letter sent to Trump’s New York office says the interview could determine whether they’ll seek a deposition or have him as a witness.

Defense attorney Eugene Fidell told The Associated Press via email that Trump’s comments about Bergdahl could affect his right to a fair trial.

Bowe Bergdahl
Bowe Bergdahl Photograph: U.S. Army/Getty Images

Bergdahl, who walked off a post in Afghanistan in 2009, faces charges of desertion and misbehavior before the enemy. A summer trial is tentatively scheduled.

Trump’s campaign didn’t immediately respond to an email seeking comment.

The win for Bernie Sanders in Kansas is more proof that his appeal is much broader than liberal New England bastions like New Hampshire and Vermont, reports Dan Roberts.

After his win in Oklahoma on Tuesday, this ought not be a surprise, but Clinton’s growing dominance in the national race for delegates can easily eclipse the appeal of the “political revolution” in many parts of the US.

Sadly even if Sanders adds Nebraska to that list tonight, he may still end up behind the former secretary of state in delegates for the night due to the outsize impact of Louisiana in the Democratic convention. Perhaps the only result that could really worry the Clinton camp would be a sudden closing of the gap among African American voters in the south.

But with the 199 delegate lead she has already built up after Super Tuesday, the underlying maths are unlikely change – even if there is a big boost in morale for the Sanders camp.

The AP projects Bernie Sanders to win Nebraska

That’s his seventh state win, and a big boost to morale for the Sanders campaign.

Updated

Bernie Sanders leads the Democratic caucuses in Nebraska, the party has just announced.

9,665 votes for Clinton so far; 11,703 for Sanders, with roughly 75 percent of caucus sites reporting.

The last polls have now closed, in the Louisiana primary. Results will come in thick and fast now on what is turning into a great night for Ted Cruz, who is probably not the Zodiac killer, and a terrible night for Marco Rubio.

Now that Ted Cruz has taken Kansas and Maine, the natural question among political junkies is: did Mitt Romney’s anti-Trump speech on Thursday have the desired impact?

Maybe.

After Super Tuesday, and after GOP frontrunner Donald Trump did, then didn’t, and then did disavow former Ku Klux Klan Grand Wizard David Duke, the Republican establishment decisively turned last week against Trump, and that tide crested during Romney’s speech.

But let’s remember that Cruz is pursuing the same electorate Rick Santorum did in 2012. Santorum is a Catholic but a favorite among evangelical Republicans, who tend to dominate caucus states. Santorum won Iowa and Kansas four years ago. Cruz won both this year, while Santorum came in last place in Iowa and dropped out shortly thereafter.

Even if Romney had never given his speech – even if the Republican establishment did not turn against Trump – Cruz was likely to win those two states anyway.

Politics change, but not that quickly.

Ted Cruz wins in Maine

This is the second victory today for the Texas senator, who is doing very well in the caucus states.

Richard Bennett, the Maine GOP chairman, said “this is the first time that we’ve tried this new approach, and there have been wrinkles...” but praises “the extraordinary results in terms of raw people coming out.”

Turnout was 18,650, Bennett said, before laboriously counting county by county.

Cruz wins with 8550 votes, that’s 45.84 percent. Trump in second, with 6070 votes. Kasich with 2270, and Rubio with just 1492.

12 delegates for Cruz, 9 for Trump, 2 for Kasich.

The question now, though, is whether Cruz can maintain his momentum into the winner-take-all primary states over the next few weeks.

Bernie Sanders wins the Kansas Democratic caucuses

A crucial win for Sanders, who needs to keep his momentum up in the face of a rapidly-narrowing set of paths to victory over Hillary Clinton.

Kansas, though, is a predominantly white state - there’s no sense that his turnout among whites translates to the kind of support he would need among African-Americans to make a real play for the nomination.

All quiet in terms of results from the Kansas Democratic caucuses. This is because the Democratic party announced earlier that they would announce the results all at once, between 6 and 7 central time.

Decision Desk HQ is reporting, however, that they are being briefed that Bernie Sanders has won.

More information for you when we have it.

Trump’s lead is increasing in Kentucky as we approach 20 percent of caucus sites reporting.

Donald Trump in Orlando, Florida
Donald Trump in Orlando, Florida Photograph: Kevin Kolczynski/Reuters

Trump is currently on 42.3 percent, with Cruz trailing behind on 31.2 percent.

Rubio is way behind, on just 13.3 percent, with Kasich a few points behind him.

This is really not a good day for “Little Marco”.

Updated

The kids – at least at CPAC – are not all right with Donald Trump, reports Ben Jacobs.

In the straw poll that traditionally finishes the three-day conservative event – which is famed as much as a hook-up spot for college kids as it as a measuring stick of the grassroots – Ted Cruz won with 40%.

The Texas senator was followed by Marco Rubio at 30% and Trump with 15%.

It did not help that Trump canceled on the event in order to hold a rally in a place that his campaign spelled “Witchita, Kanasas”. The Republican frontrunner objected to taking any questions during his scheduled appearance there.

Cruz and Rubio received rapturous receptions from the crowd at CPAC, as the room filled to capacity for their speeches. Cruz in particular was received well, the conservative firebrand being repeatedly interrupted by applause. But he and Rubio were clearly favorites at an event where Donald Trump’s name was booed almost as frequently as Hillary Clinton’s.

Kyle Foley, a first-time attendee from Orlando, Florida, was wearing a Rubio sticker. He told the Guardian he “really liked [the Florida senator] as a person. Nothing I blatantly disagree with.”

In contrast, he said: “I have every issue with Trump. He’s a liar on basically everything.”

You can read the whole piece here.

In Maine, Ted Cruz’s people are reportedly already briefing for a big win.

They’re playing the expectation-management game in Kentucky, however:

Meanwhile, Marco Rubio - who is being pretty much spanked out there - is staying very quiet.

Republican presidential hopeful John Kasich released his partial tax returns for the past several years on Saturday, joining Sens. Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz among the GOP candidates to make public such personal financial records, reports the Associated Press.

The Ohio governor’s tax returns from 2008 to 2014 were posted to his campaign’s website. They show Kasich has paid roughly 31 percent of his income in federal taxes.

In those seven years, Kasich and his wife, Karen, reported more than $5.3 million in total income. That includes money Kasich earned as governor, as a public speaker, a board member, an author, a Lehman Brothers employee, a Fox News commentator and from the couple’s investments, his campaign said.

Since winning the governor’s office in 2011, the Kasichs’ total income reported has ranged from $706,043 to $313,705.

Like Rubio and Cruz, Kasich only released the first two pages of his federal 1040 form. Not included in the disclosure are other parts of his returns, including the documents that detail his deductions.

Those records would shed additional light on Kasich’s charitable contributions, for example.

GOP front-runner Donald Trump has not release his personal tax records, citing an ongoing IRS audit of his returns dating back a dozen years.

And, these are the final numbers and delegate-count from Kansas for the Republicans:

That means Ted Cruz got three times as many delegates from Kansas than he did in Iowa.

Crucially, it gives Ted Cruz the second state he can use to fulfil the RNC’s Rule 40, which states that only candidates who win a majority of the delegations from eight different states can have their name placed into nomination, according to the Guardian’s Ben Jacobs.

Trump has five such states.

A few results are beginning to trickle in from Kentucky.

With admittedly just 5.2 percent of votes in, Trump leads Cruz in Kentucky by just under seven percentage points.

Results from the Kansas Third congressional district, which includes Kansas City, are now in, pulling Ted Cruz below 50 percent - and pushing John Kasich above the 10 percent threshold required for him to get a share of delegates, by half a percentage point.

The Democratic caucuses in Kansas are later tonight, and the state party is aiming for a faster turnaround in results:

Bernie Sanders is addressing a rally in Warren, Michigan.

“In this election, it is estimated that the Koch brothers and a few other billionaires will spend approximately 900m to buy this election for candidates who are going to represent the wealthy and the powerful,” he says. “When you have one family and a few other billionaires spending more n the election than the entire democratic or republican party, that is not democracy - that is oligarchy and we are going to stop that.”

He hits out at Hillary Clinton again for her paid speeches to Wall Street. “If you’re going to be paid 250,000 for a speech, it must be a fantstic speech,” he says. “A brilliant speech, which you would want to share with the American people, right? Extraordinary speech. Shakespearean speech! So we all look forward to hearing it.”

Cruz, during a speech in Idaho, touted his victory in Kansas saying: “The scream you hear – the howl that comes from Washington DC – is utter terror at what We the People are doing together.”

Actually, Ted, that scream you here is everyone who watched you eat that booger on live TV during the most recent debate on Thursday night. Let’s not get ahead of ourselves.

Updated

Frozen “sno-balls” are a Louisiana specialty, and tiny Abita Springs must have more sno-ball stands per capita than any town in the world. Matt Teague reports…

As the sun set on Saturday, Dionne Rouzan and James Barnes settled into bright plastic chairs at Bot & Nola’s stand. They had just finished voting. Did they have a particular issue that motivated them?

“Right there,” Rouzan said, nodding to their little boy, Ezra. “I worry about his future. Where the next president will take us.”

So she voted for Ted Cruz, she said.

“I’m sure Donald Trump is sophisticated when it comes to being a socialite,” she said, “but I just can’t see him comparing on the world stage to a Vladimir Putin or a Benjamin Netanyahu. He’s infantile.”

Since Trump increasingly looks like the likely Republican candidate, Rouzan and Barnes said they may consider switching tickets.

“I do like Bernie Sanders, now,” Rouzan said.

Barnes agreed. “He talks about issues. Poverty. World events. Things that matter.”

As opposed to?

“Donald Trump’s money,” he said. “Money and power.”

Rouzan laughed. She works in healthcare, and Barnes is a disabled veteran. “They all have a lot more money than me,” she said of the candidates. She threw her arms wide. “But why should I care?”

As they talked, Ezra put down his sno-ball cup, sheathed his samurai sword, hopped in a plastic car, and pedaled away.

James Barnes and his son Ezra
James Barnes and his son Ezra, at Bot & Nola’s sno-ball stand in Abita Springs, Louisiana. Photograph: Matthew Teague/for the Guardian

This is looking like an excellent day for Ted Cruz.

The Texas senator is capitalising on his momentum - in Idaho just now, he called for a “further narrowing of the field,” setting his sights on John Kasich and especially Marco Rubio, both of whom now lag behind Cruz in delegate-count.

It’s worth revisiting this - possibly the greatest / worst political ad of all time:

Donald Trump’s unstoppable surge to the GOP nomination has all but become conventional wisdom. But tonight is proving that it might not be completely in the bag.

Cruz handily won the CPAC poll (which, granted, is taken by an establishment group, a cohort that has looked askance at Trump’s unbreakability); he won Kansas; and he’s on track to win in Maine.

At this writing, Drumpf still has an 87-delegate lead. But more victories for Cruz tonight could make the playing field much narrower, paving the way for a two-candidate Republican-off.

Trump should probably breathe, but more likely he’ll sound off about the injustice of it all.

Ted Cruz tells Donald Trump to breathe.

Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton debate tomorrow in Flint, Michigan. The Michigan primary is on Tuesday.

Bill is in Michigan as well, stumping for Hillary:

Hillary Clinton met Saturday morning with 21 African American clergy at the Detroit Westin Book Cadillac hotel, according to the Clinton press pool, which reports that she delivered lengthy opening remarks on the themes of the Supreme Court, voting rights and the Voting Rights Act, Flint, auto jobs and her support for Obama’s agenda. She did not mention Sanders or Trump in opening remarks heard by the pool.

Hillary Clinton meets with African American ministers
Hillary Clinton meets with African American ministers Photograph: Scott Olson/Getty Images

Here are a few highlights:

We have a lot of work to do in our country and it requires reaching out, and lifting up, knocking down barriers, creating opportunities for everyone but particularly for people who have been left out and left behind. We also need to be very focused on efforts that are underway to make it more difficult for many citizens to participate in the important choice of leadership.

‘The Supreme Court is on the ballot. My name may be on the ballot, but the Supreme Court and the future of the Supreme Court is on the ballot,” she said. “President Obama is fulfilling his constitutional responsibility to send a nominee to fill the vacancy that was left with Justice Scalia’s passing, and the Senate needs to do its constitutional duty and receive that nominee and make a decision about that person, who will of course be well qualified.”

On the Voting Rights Act:

I was in the Senate when it was re-authorized. It passed 98-to-nothing, and President George W. Bush signed it. Because, after careful deliberation Republicans as well as Democrats concluded that there was still a need. It was of course then appealed, by forces on the Republican side, on the right, that didn’t want to see the continued scrutiny that the Voting Rights Act required, to ensure that the legacy of segregation, of Jim Crow, was finally overcome. And the Supreme Court substituted its judgment for the judgment of the United States Congress, and a Republican president … and gutted the Voting Rights Act.”

The session opened with her going around the room to greet each person, Rev. Kenneth Flowers of the Greater New Mt. Moriah Missionary Baptist Church in Detroit greeted her warmly as “Madam President.”

She laughed and another participant chimed in, “that sounds good.”

Then Clinton asked him whether he had “Flowers relatives back in Arkansas. There are a lot of Flowers,” she said.

“Not related to those,” Flowers replied, laughing, in apparent reference to Bill Clinton sexual misconduct accuser Gennifer Flowers. “Not related at all.”

Clinton laughed too, said “thank you” and moved on.

Updated

Earlier today, Trump pledged that while he would “follow the law” on torture, including waterboarding, he would seek to broaden those laws.

Here’s the full quote:

The last morning of every Conservative Political Action Conference is generally a subdued one, as speakers, students and adult attendees alike nurse their hangovers, hang out with their friends, listen to the final speakers and await the results of the annual straw poll, reports Megan Carpentier from Maryland.

But in the wake Donald Trump’s last-minute cancellation – to stump, he said, in Wichita, Kansas in advance of a Republican caucus he wasn’t favored to win – exhibitors started rolling up their banners before Senator Marco Rubio gave his Saturday keynote speech. They left behind pamphlets and candy they didn’t want to pay the unionized convention services to ship back to their offices. I grabbed a beer koozie for my father.

And though the ballroom was full for Rubio’s moment in the spotlight – albeit maybe not quite as crowded as for Ted Cruz’s barnstormer on Friday – there was more buzz about whether someone, anyone, could keep Trump from sweeping the day’s four Republican polls and cementing the nomination than there was about anything specific Rubio said.

And though they are all conservatives of some stripe with more than a few dollars to spare, CPAC attendees are not – and never have been – of a singular mind about almost anything, particularly about which candidate to back, Megan writes.

So though there were more than a few “Make America Great Again” hats in the crowd, Trump’s advisers were probably right in their alleged calculation that his post-speech questions from a journalist wouldn’t be softballs and could inspire a less-than-friendly reaction from a boisterous crowd.

You can read the whole piece here.

Cruz isn’t wrong about Maine. With an admittedly-slim 4.5 percent of precincts reporting, the Texas senator is ahead there by almost as large a margin as his victory in Kansas; 49 percent to Trump’s 35.

Ted Cruz is addressing supporters in Idaho following his victory in Kansas.

Let me say: God bless Kansas,” Cruz says, grinning.

And God bless Maine ... now, it’s a little bit early, the votes are still being counted, but as of today the networks have called the state of Kansas for us.

And right now as they’re counting the votes, we have roughly 50 percent of the votes in the state of Kansas. And in Maine, right now on the count in Maine, we have roughly 50 percent of votes in the state of Maine.

And the scream you hear, the howl coming from Washington DC, is utter terror at what we the people are doing together.

The AP calls Kansas for Ted Cruz

The Texas senator won big here with religious voters - 55 percent of the state describe themselves as “highly religious”, according to the PEW research centre.

Kansas is not a winner-take-all state, and the huge turnout has slowed vote-counting to a crawl. But Cruz seems set to take home at least half the delegates here, and looks set to beat his nearest rival by 25 percentage points.

Updated

John Kasich leads Donald Trump 33% to 31% in the Michigan Republican presidential primary. Ted Cruz is at 15% and Marco Rubio is at 11%, according to a poll conducted by the American Research Group, who report that the results are surprising because Trump was leading Kasich by 18 points in their survey conducted February 19 and 20.

John Kasich speaks at a rally in Traverse City, Michigan today
John Kasich speaks at a rally in Traverse City, Michigan today Photograph: John L. Russell/AP

According to the pollsters:

Kasich leads Trump 34% to 28% among self-reported Republicans (71% of likely voters), while Trump leads Kasich 40% to 30% among self-reported independents and Democrats.

Trump leads Kasich 34% to 30% among men (52% of likely voters), while Kasich leads Trump 36% to 29% among women.

Playback is very favorable for Kasich on his debate performance Thursday night, while it is unfavorable for Trump’s debate performance.

Results of the survey conducted March 4-5 are here.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders 60% to 36%.

Clinton leads Sanders 66% to 30% among self-reported Democrats (76% of likely voters), while Sanders leads Clinton 57% to 39% among self-reported independents and Republicans.

Clinton leads Sanders 64% to 32% among women and Clinton leads Sanders 77% to 21% among self-reported African American voters.

Results of the survey conducted March 4-5 are here.

Updated

The reality TV star Caitlyn Jenner has offered to serve as America’s “trans ambassador” if Ted Cruz wins the presidency – leading many in the LGBT community to express horror at the prospect, reports Amber Jamieson.

Jenner said:

I like Ted Cruz. I think he’s very conservative and a great constitutionalist and a very articulate man. I haven’t endorsed him or anything like that. But I also think: he’s an evangelical Christian, and probably one of the worst ones when it comes to trans issues.

Last year, the Texas senator called the federal government’s support for gender-neutral bathrooms for trans students “lunacy”.

Jenner, of Keeping Up With the Kardashians fame and one of the most visible transgender women in the world, has often been criticized for her own lack of understanding of trans issues.

Thanks to her money, fame and years of privilege as a successful white male athlete, her experience does not mirror that of most trans people.

However, Jenner offered to be a “trans ambassador” for Cruz, with all the girls from her show I Am Cait – the second season of which begins on Sunday – sitting on a trans issues advisory board.

You can read the whole piece here.

In Washington DC, Ted Cruz has just won the CPAC straw poll.

Caucus sites are now closed in Kentucky

Expect results in the Republican caucuses there fairly soon.

Meanwhile, with 9 percent of votes counted, Ted Cruz is also leading in Maine, with 48 percent to Trump’s 35.

Maine’s governor, Paul LePage, recently endorsed Trump - was this a kiss of death for the New York developer, as other gubernatorial endorsements have proved so far this cycle?

The Kansas Republican caucuses are still slowly drizzling results through. With 26.7 percent of votes in, Cruz is still in the lead, however - 48.5 percent to Trump’s 26.2 and Rubio’s 13.6, and John Kasich is in last with 10 percent.

In Baton Rouge, Matt Teague writes, the Young family strolled toward Louisiana State University’s stadium, preparing to watch a baseball game…

Abi Young is a freshman at LSU and her parents Louis and Angelle had driven in from New Orleans to visit. “So we voted early,” Louis said. He seemed slightly bashful, when asked how he cast his ballot.

“I voted for Carly Fiorina,” he said. “I did. I figure at this point, what’s the difference?”

If the Donald Trump steamroller continues through the Louisiana primary, he said, this year’s general election may be the first time he will bypass the voting booth.

“I’ve never missed a vote, not once since I was old enough,” he said. “This may be the first time.”

His daughter Abi, will be eligible for the first time. She said she would vote – probably.

“I’m just like him,” she said of her father.

Young family
The Young family. Abi, on the left, is a student at Louisiana State University. Her parents Angelle and Louis, and her 14-year-old brother Ben, visited Saturday from New Orleans, after voting. Photograph: Matthew Teague/for the Guardian

Louisiana is in a financial crisis, with funding cuts to education and healthcare. The cuts are so deep that some hospitals and universities are closing. Some people blame Governor Bobby Jindal – saying he was too distracted by presidential ambitions to pay attention to his home state – but Louis Young said the problems were broader than that.

“We have a spending problem,” he said. “Our state budget is $28bn. In Ohio and Pennsylvania the budgets are $27bn to $29bn, and they have three times the population. So something fundamental is out of whack in this state.”

At LSU’s enclosure for the school mascot, Marie Claire Perrault and her four-year-old son looked through a fence for Mike the Tiger.

Perrault, an insurance claims adjuster, said she probably won’t bother to vote in the primary.

“I’m absolutely not for Trump,” she said. But his sweep seems inevitable. “I would have taken any of the three other Republicans.”

Perrault’s son spotted the state’s iconic tiger, and pointed: he lay in the shade, snoozing and completely indifferent.

Trump is still speaking in Orlando.

This, by the way, is not a great look:

Some Republican leaders in Kentucky are worried about a low turnout for the state’s presidential caucuses on Saturday — perhaps because their home-state candidate no longer is in the race, the Associated Press reports.

The caucuses were tailor-made — and paid for — by Rand Paul. They were created so Paul could run for president and re-election to the Senate without violating a state law that bans candidates from appearing on the ballot twice in one day.

The senator is long gone from the presidential race, but he’s still on the hook to pay $250,000 plus other expenses for a contest among four people not named Paul.

Vote-counting is beginning in Maine. If Ted Cruz can beat Trump here, it may spell trouble for the gold-plated reality TV star.

Meanwhile, back in Trumpland:

Caucusing finishes (mostly) in Kansas

The first state to finish caucusing on Super Saturday has now done so - excepting some caucus sites with long lines, and others having to print more voter registration forms.

As we saw in Nevada, turnout is a tsunami compared with 2012. CNN is reporting that a Republican official says “almost every caucus site” ran out of ballots. 40 Republican delegates are at stake.

Republicans are reporting With 6.6 percent of caucus sites reporting, Ted Cruz has an impressive lead, with 49.4 percent of the vote.

Update [correction]: the Democrats caucus later today.

The line to get into the Kansas Republican caucus site at Olathe South High School in Olathe, Kansas
The line to get into the Kansas Republican caucus site at Olathe South High School in Olathe, Kansas Photograph: John Hanna/AP

Updated

Back in Orlando, Trump is being near-continually interrupted by protesters:

Google has provided some interesting widgets to follow search interest in candidates in all of today’s caucus and primary states.

For the Republicans:

And for the Democrats:

So, here’s what’s happening today.

Republicans are grappling for 155 delegates in caucuses in Kansas, Kentucky and Maine, and a primary in Louisiana.

Democrats are seeking 109 pledged delegates, with caucuses in Kansas and Nebraska and a primary in Louisiana.

Results for Kansas and Kentucky are expected to begin coming back around now, increasing in speed at around 4pm EST, with the rest trickling in over the course of this evening.

Donald Trump Campaigns In Wichita, Kansas
Donald Trump Campaigns In Wichita, Kansas Photograph: J Pat Carter/Getty Images

One percent of Kansas results have been counted for the Republicans. Cruz is leading Trump, but without enough districts reporting to draw any real conclusions as yet. Stay tuned.

Now Trump leads a chant of “USA! USA”

“Are Trump rallies the greatest?” he asks. The crowd roars.

“Where are these people. Oh, there he is! Little wise-guy. Lot of guts,” Trump says, almost admiringly.

“I love my protesters. Because these guys-” he points at the media “-never move their cameras.”

“We can’t play games. Our country is in deep trouble. We have to beat [Hillary],” Trump is saying.

“Bernie is gone. He had his time in the sun.” He says Bernie blew the election when he criticised Hillary’s emails.”

Now he’s hitting out at the press again, like always at his rallies. “They are the most disgusting, dishonest human beings on earth.” The audience boos.

The rally stops, for some protesters. “Get ‘em out,” Trump says.

Donald Trump has taken the stage at a rally in Orlando, Florida, where there is a man dressed up as his vaunted wall.

The former reality TV star is skipping the conservative conference known as CPAC to go on the stump in the sunshine state.

He is saying that “the one person Hillary does not want to run against is Trump. I can tell you.”

Trump is also hitting out against “little Marco,” and boasting that Florida is “truly, truly my second home.”

After Trump dubbed Rubio “Little Marco” in last week’s fractious debate, internet users have dug up this unfortunate photo of Rubio sitting in a totally giant, not at all normal sized chair:

At Bergeron’s Boudin and Cajun Meats, a meat market and barbecue joint in Port Allen, Louisiana, the sentiment on election day ran as red as hot sauce. Matthew Teague writes…

“I’m a Trump man,” said the owner, Kevin Cox. “Trump all the way.”

Kevin Cox
Kevin Cox, owner of Bergeron’s Boudin and Cajun Meats. Photograph: Matthew Teague/for the Guardian

A little over a year ago, Cox instituted a discount for anyone openly carrying a firearm. Since then, he said, the restaurant has become a draw for conservatives from around the country.

“Tourists will visit New Orleans, rent a car, and drive and hour and a half out here to see me,” he said on Saturday.

On one side of the building Bergeron’s sells traditional Cajun fare: boudin, cracklins, sausages. On the other side there’s the restaurant, and in the back hunters drop off deer for meat processing.

Port Allen sits on the Mississippi River and is populated by blue-collar workers employed by factories and plants along the river.

“A lot of these guys don’t have college degrees but they’re making $100,000 or more per year,” Cox said. Behind him on the wall a t-shirt advertised his “God, Guns & Gumbo Discount”, and customers streamed in the door.

“Do you think these guys want to pay more taxes? For Obama Care? How about an Obama Car? Where does it stop?”

Open Carry sign
A sign explains store policy. Photograph: Matthew Teague/for the Guardian

At lunchtime a customer named Brandon Johnson, of Baton Rouge, sat down with his family for barbecued chicken on styrofoam plates. He had not yet voted, he said, but he planned to.

“Absolutely,” he said.

For whom?

“Believe it or not I’m still undecided,” he said. “Trump would be a hard pill for me to swallow.”

In a general election, though, he said he would embrace Trump warmly. “Anyone but a Democrat,” he said. “My main issue is spending. Overspending, I mean, by the government.”

After a moment’s thought, he added: “I would like to see an increase in military spending.”

Bernie Sanders is speaking at Institutional Baptist Church in Cleveland.

“The hardest economic lesson I ever got is growing up in a house without a lot of money,” the Vermont senator says. “I know there are a lot of families wondering how they are going to feed the kids this week, how they’re going to put gas in the car. Who have struggled with the dream of sending their kids to college.”

I know about that. That’s in my heart. That’s why I’m running for President.

Hello and welcome to our live coverage of the first primaries and caucuses since Super Tuesday – I’m Nicky Woolf.

It’s the beginning of March and the madness continues as the departure of a retired neurosurgeon from the race brings the Republicans down to the final four candidates, meaning today is one of the last few chances for the enemies of Donald Trump to whisk delegates away from the Republican frontrunner.

On the Democratic side, today is Hillary Clinton’s chance to secure her dominant lead over Bernie Sanders.

Starring: a bombastic and orange-hued billionaire (Trump), an evangelical Texas lawyer who has not specifically denied being the Zodiac Killer (Ted Cruz), a Florida man who makes crude jokes (Marco Rubio), and an Ohio governor whom the others are ignoring but who has described himself as the grownup on the stage (John Kasich).

Clinton has hundreds more delegates than Sanders, but the Vermont senator’s surprise win in Oklahoma on Tuesday suggests he has enough support to continue rattling the Democratic race, if not overtake the frontrunner. He and the former secretary of state face off at the polls today and at a debate tomorrow, in Flint, Michigan, where the local mayor has met with Clinton to discuss the city’s lead-poisoned water.

Kansas, Kentucky, and Nebraska are holding caucuses to decide winners for both parties, and Maine Republicans will vote in a caucus. Louisiana - where the Guardian’s Matt Teague is on the ground - is holding the day’s only primary.

And in Washington DC, conservatives are having a collective panic attack over the ascendance of Trump and the schisms in their party. Ben Jacobs and Megan Carpentier are at the scene at CPAC, and will be reporting on the chaos and campaign speeches there. David Smith and Dan Roberts are also in Washington, where leaders are bracing for an increasingly likely showdown between Clinton and Trump.

Updated

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