Clemson and Notre Dame will meet for the second time this season Saturday night in Charlotte, N.C., and this time the ACC championship and a guaranteed spot in the playoffs are stake.
The Tigers are optimistic, healthier and have Trevor Lawrence back. Clemson passed for more than 400 yards and put up 40 points against the Irish without Lawrence on Nov. 7.
With that said, Notre Dame has reason for optimism, too, after controlling the line of scrimmage the first time around and making the critical plays late to pull out a win.
Here are five things to watch for heading into Saturday’s showdown (4 p.m., ABC), as well as a prediction for the game:
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SHOULD CLEMSON BE DOUBLE-DIGIT FAVORITES WITH LAWRENCE BACK?
The point spread has been at Clemson by 10.5 for most of this week, which seems a bit high. No, the Tigers weren’t healthy in the first matchup as they played without Lawrence and several starting defenders. But Notre Dame didn’t play close to its best game that night either. In the first quarter, Notre Dame had fourth-and-1 at the Clemson 2-yard line, jumped offsides and settled for a field goal. Later in the first half, the Irish drove inside the Clemson 10 and settled for a field goal again. In the second half, quarterback Ian Book was going in for a touchdown and fumbled through the end zone.
Notre Dame controlled the line of scrimmage in Round 1, on both sides of the ball, and having Lawrence back isn’t going to change that. This looks like two very evenly matched teams.
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TRAVIS ETIENNE SAYS CLEMSON’S RUNNING GAME IS CLOSE TO TAKING OFF. IS HE RIGHT?
Etienne hasn’t had a 100-yard rushing game since Oct. 10 against Miami but sounded very optimistic about Clemson’s ground game when meeting with reporters this week.
“It’s just very little knick-knack things,” Etienne said. “We’re so close. We’re doing the right things. Nothing’s wrong. We’ve just gotta stick to it.”
From watching film, Etienne said the offensive line and running backs have noticed some small details that have led to the ground game not being as dominant as usual. The Tigers are rushing for 158 yards per game in 2020, after finishing with 240.5 yards per game last year.
“If we keep sticking to it and keep trusting it, it’s going to take care of itself,” Etienne said.
Trying to get the running game going against Notre Dame is no easy task. The Irish are holding opponents to less than 100 rushing yards per game on the year. Offensive lineman Matt Bockhorst hinted this week that the Tigers may be in a situation where they try to pass early on to open up things with the running game.
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IF THE TIGERS DO STRUGGLE ON THE GROUND, CAN THEY STILL WIN?
Absolutely. Clemson proved in the last meeting that it can move the football and put up points without much of a running game as freshman quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei passed for 439 yards against the Irish. Receivers Cornell Powell (6 catches for 161 yards) and Amari Rodgers (8 for 134) both had big games. And offensive coordinator Tony Elliott said this week Clemson feels good about its matchups on the outside.
“I think that was kind of the start of Cornell’s coming-out party, making those plays,” Elliott said. “So really feel good about the matchups. Anticipate that they’re going to do some things possibly different, but at the same time they’re going to do what they do.”
Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly admitted that the Irish need to be much better against the pass Saturday. That won’t be easy to do, as Lawrence does a nice job of taking what the defense gives him. Clemson feels that it has answers for whatever defenses throw at it. That’s why when Notre Dame loaded the box in the first game, Uiagalelei threw the ball 44 times.
“We’ve got to play better, there’s no doubt about that. I mean, we did a good job against the run ... but yeah, there’s some things that we’re gonna have to do much better in (defending) the passing game,” Kelly said. “We’re gonna have to continue to obviously keep their running game in check. But to the level of giving up 400-plus yards (passing) — no, we cannot afford to do that again, there’s no doubt about that.”
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CAN CLEMSON CONTAIN IAN BOOK?
Speaking of something a defense needs to do a better job of, the Tigers need to be much better at containing Book. The senior QB passed for over 300 yards and also rushed for 67 yards in the first meeting between the two teams, doing a masterful job of extending plays or turning a potential sack into a positive gain.
Part of Clemson’s problem in the first game was that when the Tigers brought pressure, they didn’t always get there. Clemson sending extra defenders but not getting Book down opened up one-on-one matchups for the Irish in the passing game and also opened up running lanes for Book to scramble.
“We’ve gotta do better. We’ve gotta win one-on-ones,” Tigers defensive coordinator Brent Venables said of not finishing plays when blitzing. “They’re good, and they’re in this position because, as we always say, it starts up front. They’re seasoned, experienced, strong, physical. They’re good. And they did a better job than we did in that way. Felt like we disrupted them to a certain degree but didn’t finish a lot of plays. ... They blocked us. We weren’t good enough.”
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WHO STEPS UP FOR CLEMSON DEFENSIVELY?
So who makes those plays for the Tigers this time around? It helps that defensive tackle Tyler Davis and linebackers James Skalski and Mike Jones Jr. should be back after missing the last game with injuries. All three are capable of getting in the backfield and finishing tackles behind the line of scrimmage, and Davis and Skalski in particular entered the season with expectations of being two of Clemson’s top defenders.
Clemson also has several young players who are playing at a higher level now than they were then, including linebacker Trenton Simpson and defensive linemen Myles Murphy and Bryan Bresee.
“We learned a lot about us and where we’ve gotta get better and where we’ve gotta improve. Some of it’s a humbling learning experience,” Venables said. “But no doubt that those guys learned the margin for error, the physicality, the precision that you’ve gotta bring in both the run and the pass. It’s a big deal, man. You play championship type of football, you’ve gotta be able to match blow for blow to have a chance to win the game.”
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CLEMSON-NOTRE DAME PREDICTION
This should be another classic game between two really good teams. Dabo Swinney has made it clear that he believes these are two of the top four teams in the country, regardless of what happens Saturday. And he very well could be right. Both teams are in the top 20 in scoring offense and scoring defense, have veteran QBs who are proven winners and two really good defensive coordinators who are two of the best in the business. Look for Lawrence and Clemson to ultimately make a couple more plays. But it won’t be easy.
Score: Clemson 34, Notre Dame 30
