Week 4 was a week of clarification.
The Dallas Cowboys reminded us that Mac Jones is not a serious NFL quarterback. The Las Vegas Raiders and Cleveland Browns were reminded their mediocre starters are a significant upgrade from the rookie passers on their benches. The Denver Broncos and Chicago Bears played a game that made fans of neither team happy.
But in the middle of this standard-issue Sunday shame was another round of reasons to believe. The Buffalo Bills, San Francisco 49ers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Houston Texans all had fairly different expectations for 2023, but each franchise shined in its own way before opening the month of October with a victory.
Let’s talk about them. These are the four things I liked most about Week 4.
1
The Buffalo Bills defense remains championship caliber
The Bills’ defense has ranked in the top six when it comes to yards allowed in four of the last five seasons. This season will almost certainly make it five of six.
The Bills’ front four makes this all possible.
the Bills only blitz 17.8 percent of the time (fourth-lowest in the NFL)
the Bills generate pressure on 30 percent of passing plays (fourth-highest in the NFL)
and that four-man rush adds Von Miller soon. good luck, AFC quarterbacks! pic.twitter.com/bJeXNGn3pK
— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) October 1, 2023
No team in the league is more proficient at generating chaos with less than the Bills. Buffalo hardly blitzes but generates pressure roughly one in three dropbacks. Thirteen percent of their passing plays end in sacks, the highest margin in the league.
Of the club’s 16 sacks, 14 have come from players that line up either at defensive tackle or end in the Bills’ 4-3. Linebackers Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard are only averaging about two blitzes per game (Bernard is responsible for the other two sacks on the Buffalo stat sheet). Comparatively, Buccaneers’ linebackers Lavonte David and Devin White blitz about twice as much.
Instead, Sean McDermott is content to keep his human-shaped missiles patrolling the middle of the field, where they’re allowing passer ratings in coverage of 38.0 (Bernard) and 28.0 (Milano). Throwing nothing but incompletions would give you a 39.6 rating.
This is how Buffalo can survive a season without Tre’Davious White or Christian Benford, both of whom left Week 4 with injuries (Benford returned). The Bills’ defense works because it creates pressure up front while retaining the ability to keep its safeties deep and floating seven men around the secondary (the run defense isn’t nearly this good. It’s not yet a problem, but it could be).
It’s not a secret, either. The Dolphins knew all about it Sunday and couldn’t do anything to stop it.
Tyreek Hill said the Bills played Cover 2 throughout the game and their corners “had no fear in their eyes because they knew they had help over the top.” pic.twitter.com/cpH5DRzKJt
— Marcel Louis-Jacques (@Marcel_LJ) October 1, 2023
“We’re trying to wake everybody up and make people talk,” lineman Ed Oliver, source of three sacks and seven quarterback hits so far told the media after Sunday’s win. “We want everybody to know that this defense is for real and we’ve got special guys on this defense.”
They looked special in Week 4, and that will insulate this team against the AFC’s toughest quarterbacks. It has them primed to survive a Josh Allen slump. Buffalo didn’t just take over the top spot in the AFC East by beating the Dolphins Sunday; the Bills are now the favorite to win the conference itself.
2
CJ Stroud is the realest of deals
After four weeks, one rookie quarterback has risen above the rest of his class. CJ Stroud is averaging 303 passing yards per game four weeks into his NFL debut. He’s thrown 151 pass attempts without an interception. His processing is crisp and his ability to fit the ball into tight windows has been on full display through one month of pro ball.
NICO COLLINS IS JUST LIKE THAT pic.twitter.com/biTd2NYRKg
— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) October 1, 2023
While his catchable pass rate was a middling 75 percent coming into Week 4, Stroud displayed composure and poise while spraying safe targets across the intermediate range. He completed nine of 13 throws between 10 and 19 yards downfield, pushing his completion rate up to 59 percent on such attempts and, importantly, getting the bulk of his work done over the middle as to maximize run-after-catch abilities. Houston’s 5.2 yards after catch ranked eighth-best among NFL offenses before Sunday.
8️⃣ with a 22-yard reception 🤘 pic.twitter.com/Mz0yutUwiC
— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) October 1, 2023
This means there’s no easy way to cheat Stroud’s passing offense. He’s viable over the middle and has the arm strength to fire lasers to the sideline. He’s only attempting two deep balls per game, but completing half of them. He scrambles well enough to gain yards or extend plays; he’s been sacked 11 times this season but only hit 18 times — especially notable when you consider he’s faced the Steelers, Colts and Ravens, three teams with top 10 pass rushes to start the season.
The end result is a polished young quarterback with room to grow. After a rough Week 1 outing against Baltimore, he’s posted a positive expected points added (EPA) number every week since. In Weeks 3 and 4, his combined EPA is 28 points. This rookie quarterback is making his team roughly two touchdowns better each week in the midst of this tiny win streak.
This isn’t to shade the other two starters in Stroud’s draft class. Indianapolis’s Anthony Richardson and Carolina’s Bryce Young only have three interceptions between them in 175 attempts. Young’s been given little to work with in terms of targets and blocking and Richardson has been hurt, but both have cast visions of a fruitful future with their level of play.
It’s just not as fruitful as the future in Houston, even without a first round pick in 2024.
3
Baker Mayfield is a viable starting quarterback again
When Mayfield balled out in Week 2, it could be dismissed. After all, it came on a day where Mike Evans provided more than half the team’s aerial yards. Moreover, it occured against the smoldering crater that was once the Chicago Bears.
Week 4 is tougher to deny. Mayfield stared down a New Orleans Saints defense that ranked sixth in overall defensive DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) through three weeks and carved it right the hell up.
The former first overall pick was 2022’s worst starting quarterback — a stat made more damning by the fact his cohort included Zach Wilson. His victory in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ quarterback battle appeared less related to his own skill than the fact the alternative was Kyle Trask. All signs pointed to a rebuild year for the Bucs and an opportunity to select Drake Maye or Caleb Williams at the top of next year’s draft.
Instead, Tampa Bay is 3-1 with their only loss coming against the defending NFC champions. On Sunday they seized the top spot in the NFC South behind Mayfield’s 246 passing yards and three touchdowns.
This time, the onus wasn’t on Evans. Chris Godwin picked up his part of the bargain with eight catches for 114 yards. Five different targets had at least three catches Sunday, including four catches and a touchdown to Deven Thompkins — a player with 48 career receiving yards coming into Week 4.
Catch of the game by @GrandmasterDT 🤯
📺: #TBvsNO on FOX pic.twitter.com/G5J7o4JeEV
— Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@Buccaneers) October 1, 2023
Mayfield wasn’t especially dynamic with big throws, but he was effective. Only one of his passes went more than 20 yards downfield and it ended in an interception. He connected on 25 of his other 31 attempts, however, recording an absurd 18.3 completion percentage over expected (CPOE) in the process. Basically, a typical quarterback could have been counted on for 19 completions vs. the Saints. Mayfield gave the Bucs six bonus throws en route to victory.
What’s equally important: he’s doing this all behind a middling offensive line. Tampa still has deficiencies up front, but Mayfield has been able to turn crowded pockets into opportunities. His five scrambles in Week 4 resulted in 34 yards and, crucially, two conversions on third-and-six or longer. He’s harnessed the preternatural feel for pressure that helped make him a star at Oklahoma once more, and it’s paying dividends.
Mayfield was only sacked once Sunday against a defense that had ranked tied for sixth in the NFL in quarterback pressures. That’s a big deal! That makes this feel sustainable, even if a +18.3 CPOE and a passing chart devoid of deep completions isn’t!
That’s how the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have evolved from “tank job” to “division frontrunners” in less than a month. There’s been a stellar defensive effort and expected performances from Evans and Godwin. But Mayfield has been significantly better than he was in 2022, and that unexpected turnaround deserves some flowers.
4
Brandon Aiyuk, who is about to sign a $125 million contract
All Cris Carter did was catch touchdowns. All Brandon Aiyuk does is move the chains.
The fourth-year wideout has 17 catches in 2023. All 17 have resulted in first downs. This is how Brock Purdy can average a whopping 13.5 yards per attempt in a win over the Arizona Cardinals. This is how the 49ers can have a 100 percent success rate on series that begin with pass plays.
The rub on Aiyuk before 2023 was that he was more of a short range, run-after-catch phenomenon. Over his first three seasons as a pro, his average catch came only eight yards downfield. But this fall that number has increased significantly as he’s moved into a deep threat role for Purdy’s offense. Coming into Week 4 his average target came 14 yards beyond the line of scrimmage.
Against the Cardinals, Purdy attempted five passes that traveled more than 10 yards through the air. All five were to Aiyuk. All five were complete for 137 yards.
Wait, hold on, that undersells it (but my god, Brock Purdy’s only incompletion was a screen). Here’s every target Aiyuk had, mapped by the NFL itself.
That’s hugely valuable, not only to San Francisco but to Aiyuk’s agent. The former first round pick is headed to the final season of his rookie contract in 2024 and angling for an extension. The current going rate for a top 10 wideout is roughly $25 million annually — but that’s not accounting for the expanding salary cap in years to come. While Aiyuk may not command the four year, $120 million Tyreek Hill got from the Miami Dolphins, it’s not a stretch to think his landing spot falls in the five year, $125 million range.
Is that a price the 49ers can pay? They’ve only got $17 million in estimated salary cap space for 2024, per OverTheCap, thanks to 10 different players who’ll command eight figure cap hits next season. But they’ve also got Purdy under contract for the next two seasons at a combined cost of just $2.1 million, so there’s room to be found.
Either way, Aiyuk is making himself a ton of money in 2023. The question is who’s gonna pay him?
