Cidara Therapeutics stock doubled on Monday after the company presented a promising update for its universal flu shot.
A single dose of Cidara's drug, dubbed CD388, conferred 58% to 76% protection against symptomatic seasonal influenza for 24 weeks — depending on the dosage — compared to a placebo. It's important to note that Cidara's drug isn't a vaccine. It's a long-acting antiviral drug.
Needham analyst Joseph Stringer said the results are "significant" for Cidara stock. They're numerically better than traditional flu vaccines, which offer 40% to 45% protection against influenza. The results also de-risk Phase 3 development and likely allow Cidara to use the Phase 2 study as one of the two placebo-controlled studies needed for approval.
He models $1.5 billion in non-risk-adjusted peak sales for Cidara Therapeutics' drug.
Cidara stock catapulted 113.8%, closing at 44.95. At one point, shares touched a four-year high, up 116%.
Cidara Therapeutics Hits A 'Home Run'
Analysts expect Cidara Therapeutics to target its flu shot to patients who don't respond well, or at all, to traditional vaccines. That includes immunocompromised patients and high-risk people. Needham's Stringer estimates that's a market of 13 million people in the U.S.
The highest dose proved up to 76% effective. Stringer called that a "home run."
Similarly, RBC Capital Markets analyst Brian Abrahams described the results as "impressive." Every dose cleared his 50% protective effectiveness bar and the highest dose exceeded his best-case view for 65% effectiveness.
Immunocompromised patients and high-risk people are "optimal" initial targets, but there's a chance Cidara Therapeutics could eventually move into broader populations, either as a monotherapy or in combination with vaccines to augment protection.
The result "significantly de-risks pivotal trial development potentially initiating early next year, and increases our confidence in the $3B out-year (worldwide) sales (opportunity) that we model for CD388 as a potential novel, potentially transformative flu prevention alternative combining and meaningfully improving upon properties of existing treatments and vaccines," he said.
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