Here are a couple of instructive Christmas case studies to ponder, with rugby’s festive season looming. At this point last year Exeter were quietly optimistic about beating Harlequins in the Big Game at Twickenham, having just produced decent home and away displays against Toulon and beaten Newcastle in their previous three matches. Instead they were thumped by Quins and failed to win another league game until March.
Leicester, in contrast, entered Christmas on the back of a grim six-try drubbing at Saracens. Their post-Christmas fixture was against Sale, which they won 30-23 at Welford Road. They subsequently remained unbeaten in the Premiership until mid-April, ensuring a top-four finish and their place in the play-offs.
Christmas, in short, can set the tone for months ahead, both good and bad. If you are losing, it can become a hard habit to break as the temperature drops and the weather worsens in January. If you enter the new year in good spirits, it tends to have long-lasting effects. Northampton saw off Bath just after Christmas last year and never looked back en route to the final, where they famously snuck up on Saracens. The immediate post-Christmas period does not identify champions but it does offer a good indicator of who is in the required mental state to kick on strongly in the new year.
Which leads us to this year’s post-Christmas weekend, a significant one in both the Premiership and the Pro12. This time Leicester are away to Sale, followed by a home game with Bath and a trip to Harlequins in early January. Currently they lie seventh in the table and it does not require a genius to recognise that this mini block of three games will have a major say in whether they make the top four – or even the top six – in May. The Tigers will not want to leave their run too late this year, given three of their last four regular-season games are against Saracens, Wasps and Northampton, all presently in the top six.
History suggests Leicester will always find a way while Exeter, Sale and Wasps – who find themselves ahead of the more-fancied Tigers, Quins and Gloucester – may find it harder to sustain their form into the second half of the season.
It would not be surprising, though, if this season pans out slightly differently. Exeter will have their work cut out in Bath, having underperformed in Sale last Friday night, but, if any club is primed for a good 2015, it is the Chiefs. They have few injuries, can expect relatively few Six Nations calls and have every chance of staying in the top four if they can shed the recurring habit of failing to produce the goods on their longest away trips, not to mention high-profile television games they have been tipped to win.
It is a mental obstacle that will sort itself out over time; when it does they will not look back. It would certainly help them if Sale endure a tough festive period against Leicester, Wasps and Northampton respectively, a run of fixtures that will reveal whether Steve Diamond really has forged a hard-nosed Sharks pack capable of denting the reputations of allcomers.
If Wasps, similarly, can build on their recent good form and find the consistency that their director of rugby, Dai Young, craves they will kick off 2015 with even more reasons to be cheerful. Opposition sides will find the unfamiliar Ricoh Arena a tricky place to visit, particularly if Young does not lose many key forwards to Six Nations duty. Wasps visit Kingsholm this Saturday and it is possible to argue that Gloucester’s chances of making the top six will all but evaporate if they fail to win any of their three upcoming Premiership games, which also include fixtures against Exeter and Saracens.
On current form the likeliest top six English sides to qualify for Europe next season are the current top four plus Wasps and Leicester. Quins have been showing no shortage of character but this year’s Big Game against the leaders, Northampton, will be a precise indicator of where they stand. Already it would not be a surprise if the Saints and Bath secure home draws in the Premiership semi-finals, unless Saracens’ forwards rediscover their mojo over the second half of the season.
As for the Pro12, this is a particularly delicate time for the Irish provinces. Munster and Leinster have their injury issues and Ulster’s away record this season is less than convincing. Suddenly, too, Connacht have the same number of wins in the league as Leinster and Ulster, with only three Irish teams automatically qualifying for the Champions Cup next season and the Galway-based side set to be less severely hit by Six Nations calls.
It is a predicament well-known to Premiership and Top 14 sides, who have long had to juggle domestic, European and Test requirements, while Ireland’s big three have been all but guaranteed to progress. An extra edge is certain, either way, when Munster and Leinster square up on Boxing Day, with Ulster also hosting Connacht.
As in England, Christmas can be a decisive, as well as a celebratory, time of year.
CHRISTMAS GREETINGS
Many thanks to all those who have taken the time and trouble to write, post and tweet on countless rugby-related issues during the course of 2014. The past 12 months have been busy but 2015 will be more hectic still, with a World Cup twinkling on the horizon. This column will be back, suitably refreshed and ready for the fray, in the new year. In the meantime, here’s wishing all Guardian and Observer readers a restorative festive season, wherever you may be.
ONE TO WATCH THIS WEEK …
Harlequins versus Northampton. Between them, these two clubs will supply a sizeable number of England’s Six Nations squad. If Luther Burrell, in particular, can keep playing as well as he did in the win over Leicester, his claim to a place in the English midfield for the opening championship game against Wales in Cardiff in early February will be hard to resist.
