The Government is losing the argument on MIQ and making up new reasons why double vaccinated Kiwis shouldn’t be allowed home for Christmas. Being pragmatic would be opening the trans-Tasman bubble to Kiwi citizens, writes political editor Jo Moir.
Last month Covid Response Minister Chris Hipkins told Newsroom the traffic light system would completely change the risk assessment for the international border.
It would give the Government options for letting more vaccinated Kiwis back across the border and “allow much greater movement with self-isolation as the default’’.
That’s because the whole country would be in the same system and the spread of the virus would be controlled by greater freedoms being afforded to the vaccinated.
At the start of December the whole country will move into the traffic light system, and Auckland’s regional border will drop on December 15.
But on Wednesday, Hipkins and the Prime Minister dashed any hope that double-vaccinated Covid-negative Kiwis living in Australia would be able to spend Christmas at home.
The Government has always been clear that the international border would be opened up in a staged way to keep some control over the number of people coming in and limit the impact that has domestically.
A logical and reasonable place to start would be hitting restart on a lighter version of the trans-Tasman bubble.
That is, travel would be only for vaccinated New Zealand citizens or permanent residents and could be coupled with negative pre-departure tests and a period in home isolation.
It would give families, some of whom have been separated for years now, the ability to have Christmas together without completely opening the floodgates.
If it hasn’t been on the table for months, then Ardern should have made that clear before being asked about it on Wednesday.
Jacinda Ardern has taken what she’s described as a “pragmatic’’ approach to the traffic light system and moving regions before they hit the 90 percent vaccination target.
The same approach could be taken to Kiwis separated across the Tasman.
But Hipkins told Newsroom while Cabinet hasn’t confirmed anything about the bubble, which is up for review later this month, “it wouldn’t be unreasonable for people to expect that there’s not going to be significant change there until early next year’’.
Ardern says the Government has “consistently said that the next stage is home isolation and we’ve indicated that’s the first quarter of next year’’.
That might be true for Kiwis abroad globally, but Cabinet has never taken the trans-Tasman bubble off the table and has consistently said it would be reviewed at the end of November.
If it hasn’t been on the table for months, then Ardern should have made that clear before being asked about it on Wednesday.
While Hipkins points to the “cumulative risk’’ of opening the border at the same time the traffic light system is being bedded in, his case projections are not specific to a trans-Tasman bubble model.
He says there could be potentially 50 or 60-Covid positive cases a day once 5000-6000 Kiwis start returning home daily.
But that’s not reflective of the sort of numbers that would be returning if it were limited to just New Zealand citizens who are double vaccinated and living in Australia.
When the trans-Tasman bubble launched in April about 3000 people were entering New Zealand a day, but that included non-citizens.
Ardern says the Government wants to keep making “safe and steady progress” at the border.
What better way to do that than by starting with Kiwis stuck in Australia waiting for a MIQ spot that has never come?
In coming weeks, ministers will lay out more detail and a timeline of how the border will start to reopen next year.
In the meantime, Covid-positive cases in the community will continue to self-isolate at home, MIQ will stay full of lottery-winning vaccinated Kiwis and thousands will sit across the ditch wondering when their vaccination will count for something.
