Given the weather that often seems to hit northern France when the Tour visits, and given the crash on rain-hit roads that scuppered Chris Froome’s defence of his title in 2014, it should come as no surprise the Briton has been keeping an eye on what the heavens may throw at the race over the opening two stages. These will be held entirely in the Manche peninsula, best known to the British as the bit you drive through after getting off the ferry at Cherbourg.
He made clear his weather concerns at the end of his final pre-race press conference, along with his belief that in these parts the climatic conditions pretty much dictate the racing. Froome also pointed out he effectively won last year’s race thanks to Team Sky’s attack in crosswinds on the opening stage in the Netherlands, when he gained 90 seconds on Nairo Quintana, who finished only 1min 12sec behind.
There is no rain forecast but there will be a decent breeze and exposed roads to take advantage of on both Saturday and Sunday. Sir Dave Brailsford appears to be thinking along the lines of repeating last year’s opening day exploits: “This year you have to take every opportunity, you can’t just wait for the predictable moments.”
As he pointed out, Sky’s selection of one-day Classic specialists Luke Rowe, Ian Stannard and Geraint Thomas has been made with precisely this in mind. “Who better?” he said. “If you can’t do something with those guys, you’d have to look at yourself.”
While Sky will be looking for early openings, Froome has geared his season around finding form in the final week of the Tour, with a “personal goal” of performing more strongly in the closing stages, following his near-defeat last year at the hands of Quintana at l’Alpe d’Huez. In the last two mountain stages in 2015, Froome lost 1min 50sec to the Colombian; if Quintana and his Movistar team had been keener to press home their advantage when the yellow jersey and Team Sky were vulnerable, the result might have been different.
Froome has rejigged his season – something he seems to concede felt like a gamble – with the plan being to hit his best form now and hold it until the Olympic Games road race and time trial in Rio on 6 and 10 August.
He said: “I’ve been delaying reaching that peak form. In previous seasons I’ve been in that shape a lot earlier in the spring and then trying to hang on to it. I feel as if I’ve only got there now. Hopefully because we’ve delayed everything I’ll be able to hang on for a bit longer this time, into Rio as well.
“My wife and I have just had our first son so it’s been good for me to spend a bit more time at home; it has been good for me to change it a bit, to trust in the training that I’ve been doing closely with [coach] Tim Kerrison, and believe that I would get to this point even if I wasn’t winning races in February. I’m ready.
“I’m glad we did take that approach; hopefully that will carry me into the third week of this race. That is something I’ve made a little personal goal for this Tour – to be stronger in the third week than I’ve been in the past.”
While Mont Ventoux on Bastille Day will be a high point, the key phase of the Tour comes after the rest day in Berne on 19 July, with four days of mountain climbing to close the race. “I imagine a lot of people will be looking at that last week. It’s so heavily loaded in mountains, stages 17 to 20,” Froome said.
“For anyone trying to make up time that’s a great opportunity; obviously for whoever’s leading it will be a tough hurdle, trying to defend for four days back to back.”
Winning this Tour is, says Froome, probably the toughest challenge he has faced in his career. That is partly because taking a third Tour is an honour reserved for so few. Louison Bobet, who came from a few miles away over the Norman-Breton border, Greg LeMond, and Philippe Thys are the only riders outside the magic circle of five-times Tour winners to have managed the feat.
It is also the case the opposition has grown in numbers and strength since Froome ran Bradley Wiggins close in 2012, with Quintana, Fabio Aru, Thibaut Pinot and Romain Bardet all breaking through in recent years.
As the runner-up in both Froome’s victories, Quintana is the favourite, particularly on a course that includes so much climbing in the last nine days. Brailsford said: “The question is whether he’s stepped up; he’ll be asking himself that question as much as everyone else.
“He’ll come with confidence but with some questions too because he’s never done it. If you’ve never done something you will ask yourself questions and that’s potentially the opportunity for us. There are chinks in his armour that you can exploit.”
And depending on the weather, Sky will begin looking as early as Saturday.
• This article was amended on 1 July 2016 to include Philippe Thys in a list of riders to have won the Tour de France three times.
