Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG) will introduce Red Chimichurri as its next limited-time menu offering on September 30 across the U.S. and Canada. The sauce, featuring roasted garlic, cilantro, chili peppers and citrus, is intended to enhance Carne Asada and broaden flavor variety.
Stephens analyst Jim Salera said the move follows the success of Adobo Ranch, which helped attract new guests and lift transactions. A targeted Rewards program promotion will support the launch, offering members a free trial to boost day-one adoption.
Jim Salera maintains an Equal-Weight rating and a $60 price forecast, citing sustained mid-single-digit comparable store sales growth is viewed as the key benchmark for Chipotle's long-term model.
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The analyst believes Chipotle has credible long-term growth drivers in operations, limited-time offerings, and catering, though these initiatives will take time to scale.
In the near term, the firm expects investors to focus on how the company manages a tough macro environment while regaining positive momentum in comparable sales.
In July, Chipotle reported second-quarter revenue of $3.06 billion, missing analyst estimates of $3.11 billion. The company reported adjusted earnings of 33 cents per share, in line with Wall Street estimates.
The quarterly revenue increased 3% year-over-year, while comparable restaurant sales decreased 4% year-over-year due to lower transactions of 4.9%, partially offset by a 0.9% increase in average check.
Stephens projects revenue of $12.15 billion in 2025, up from $11.31 billion in 2024, with sales expected to reach $13.88 billion in 2026. Adjusted EPS is forecast at $1.22 in 2025 and $1.44 in 2026.
The analyst estimated operating EBITDA at $2.45 billion in 2025 and $2.86 billion in 2026. Valuation multiples remain elevated, with CMG trading at 32.9x 2025E EPS and 21.2x EV/EBITDA.
Price Action: CMG shares were trading higher by 0.24% to $40.18 at last check Monday.
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