What’s new: Exports of Chinese goods grew in July at their lowest clip this year, rising 19.3% year-on-year in dollar terms, according to data (link in Chinese) from the General Administration of Customs released on Saturday.
That beat the median forecast of an 18.4% rise in a Caixin survey (link in Chinese) of economists.
Imports grew 28.1% year-on-year, slower than the previous fourth months, and lower than the median forecast of 32.5%. China’s trade surplus rose to $56.6 billion from $51.5 billion in June.
The context: Signs of weakness in China’s economic recovery have been a cause for concern among analysts, with some expecting worse to come after new measures to curb recent local outbreaks of the highly contagious delta variant of the coronavirus.
The biggest macro risk in the coming months is the mix of a deterioration of the Covid-19 situation and a slowdown in exports, according to a Friday note (link in Chinese) from Pinpoint Asset Management Ltd. Economists from Nomura International (Hong Kong) Ltd. revised down China’s year-on-year GDP growth forecasts to 5.1% and 4.4% for the third and fourth quarters from 6.4% and 5.3%.
Related: China’s Ongoing Recovery Showed Signs of Weakness in July
Contact reporter Guo Yingzhe (yingzheguo@caixin.com) and editor Flynn Murphy (flynnmurphy@caixin.com)
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