Improving Thailand's image among Chinese travellers and recovering airline seat capacity should help the market reach 5.1 million arrivals this year, up by 14% from a low benchmark in 2025, likely driven by younger visitors, says the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT).
Siriges-a-nong Trirattanasongpol, executive director for East Asia at TAT, said Chinese arrivals are recovering due to several factors, especially an improving reputation since the visits of Their Majesties the King and Queen as well as Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul.
TAT's five China offices are rolling out joint promotions with airlines, online travel agents (OTAs) and wholesalers, along with launching promotional content on Chinese social media, local mainstream media and travel influencers, said Mrs Siriges-a-nong.
The previous phase of the "Thailand Summer Blast" programme, which subsidised charter and commercial flights from China, helped create momentum through to this year, she noted.
Lertchai Wangtrakuldee, director of TAT's Shanghai office, said based on informal discussions with several OTAs, Thailand's popularity is recovering from a low last year and could surpass Japan, which still faces political tensions with mainland China.
During the first six months of this year, Thailand welcomed 2.6 million Chinese tourists, while Japan tallied 2.1 million arrivals.
According to TAT, seat capacity for Thailand-China routes this year rose by 8.7% to 8.47 million seats, with 56% from eastern and southern regions in China.
Bangkok remains the gateway, comprising 83% of total seats.
Last year, Thailand ranked the No.4 outbound market for Chinese tourists, with 4.47 million arrivals, excluding from Hong Kong and Macau, according to the China Tourism Academy.
Japan was first with 6.87 million arrivals, followed by South Korea and Vietnam with 5.48 million and 5.28 million arrivals, respectively.
The latest Dragon Trail International report on the Chinese outbound market, which surveyed 310 Chinese travel trade professionals, indicated Thailand is rebounding as the most noteworthy destination this year, followed by South Korea and Japan.
Chinese outbound travel demand continues to grow during the hot season, despite geopolitical headwinds and rising travel costs, noted the report.
SHIFTING BEHAVIOUR
Mr Lertchai said Chinese travel demand is driven by young and middle-class travellers seeking experiential offerings.
According to China Tourism Academy, 64% of its outbound travellers were younger than 35, with two-thirds deemed middle-income, earning 5,000-19,999 yuan per month (24,500-98,000 baht).
This market wants purpose-driven activities and authentic local experiences, relying more on social media and artificial intelligence, noted the academy, shifting from making decisions based on price and fixed sightseeing programmes from travel agencies.
Thailand's strengths over competitors include diverse and premium products catering to every segment, along with widespread Chinese digital payment and language support, noted TAT.
The agency is promoting local events this year such as the Candle Festival, Songkran and sports matches and concerts, especially during Mid-Autumn Festival in September and National Day in October, the longest travel time for the Chinese.
The TAT said operators should use Chinese social media to promote their services, as more than 1.05 billion Chinese travellers are active users on various platforms.
Douyin's short-video content mainly attracts audiences aged 18-35, while Xiaohongshu is used by urban travellers, said the agency.
