This is the second installment of a series examining the issues the Japan-U.S. alliance will face in the years ahead.
The Japan-U.S. joint military exercise Keen Sword, one of the largest of its kind, was conducted from Oct. 26 to Nov. 5, with the participation of about 37,000 Self-Defense Forces members and about 9,000 U.S. service members.
Timed for the start of the exercise, which included a drill on an uninhabited island, a CV-22 Osprey U.S. transport aircraft landed on the deck of the Maritime Self-Defense Force's destroyer Kaga, which was navigating the sea off Shikoku.
U.S. Air Force Lt. Gen. Kevin Schneider, the commander of U.S. Forces in Japan, and Gen. Koji Yamazaki, chief of the joint staff of the SDF, alighted on the deck together from the Osprey.
Speaking at a joint news conference aboard the destroyer, Schneider said that the Osprey's transport capability "could be used to deploy combat troops to defend the Senkaku Islands." He thus referred to the possibility of Japan and the United States jointly defending the Senkakus.
This was a message apparently targeted at China, which is seeking to change the status quo regarding the Senkakus.
Just before the news conference, U.S. F-18 fighter jets and other aircraft conducted landing practice on the USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier that sailed with the Kaga.
-- Beijing seeks to split alliance
According to the report "Dragon Against the Sun: Chinese Views of Japanese Seapower" by Toshi Yoshihara, a senior fellow of the U.S.-based Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA), Chinese military analysts have suggested a scenario in which "within four days of the war's opening shots, the Senkakus fall" to the People's Liberation Army.
This scenario is based on Chinese troops occupying the Senkakus in the aftermath of a Japan Coast Guard boat firing at a Chinese government vessel and the Chinese PLA Navy sinking an MSDF warship with an anti-ship missile whose shooting range is longer than that of the MSDF destroyer.
Since the administration of previous U.S. President Barack Obama, Washington has clarified that invasion of the Senkakus is subject to application of Article 5 of the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty that obligates the United States to defend Japan in times of an armed attack in Japanese territory. Nevertheless, in this scenario the United States does not take part in the battle as it is not directly attacked.
This scenario can be said to reflect only the wishes of the Chinese side.
But China holds on to the hope that there are factors where it will be possible to "divide" the Japan-U.S. alliance.
The Sasakawa Peace Foundation in the United States held a war game in February with the participation of former military officers of Japan, the United States, South Korea and Taiwan based on a scenario in which the Chinese military seizes Itu Aba Island in the South China Sea, which is effectively controlled by Taiwan. This seizure is done under the pretext of dispatching troops for disaster relief operations. The U.S. team calls on the Taiwan team to exercise self-restraint on military action to recapture the island while seeking a diplomatic solution.
"I was shocked by the U.S. team's decision to easily give up on an operation to recapture the island," said Nobukatsu Kanehara, a former deputy secretary-general of the National Security Secretariat who participated in the war game as a member of the Japanese team. "Such a stance will not make it possible for Washington to win the trust of nations in the region."
The White House led by Obama had shied away from freedom of navigation operations sought by the U.S. Defense Department despite China's breaking of a promise not to militarize the South China Sea. This was because the Obama administration was extremely fearful of being drawn into a conflict with China.
-- No longer just about DPRK
Tomohisa Takei, a former chief of staff of the MSDF who was involved in the translation and supervision of the Japanese edition of the CSBA report, said, "A war is liable to break out when the balance of maritime forces is lost."
He pointed out the need for Japan to bolster its defense capabilities in earnest as he went on to say, "The expansion of defense power by using North Korea as a cover is reaching its limit."
The Japanese government has regarded North Korea's nuclear and missile development as a threat to Japan's security but has not gone beyond describing Chinese military strength as a "strong security concern." A high-ranking Defense Ministry official said that Chinese military strength is "a threat when taking the current situation into consideration." But Tokyo does not want to develop a tense relationship with Beijing as China is the largest trading partner for Japan. Thus, the use of the term "threat" has been avoided.
But such a stance has in fact proved ineffective in serving as a deterrence to China, which is increasingly confident about its military might.
The United States has shifted to regarding its relationship with China as a great power rivalry. Washington has cast skeptical eyes on Tokyo's stance toward Beijing. A former U.S. government official pointed out that Japan's current stance toward China is similar to that of the Obama administration that Japan criticized at the time.
Tokyo is called on to pursue a two-pronged strategy of maintaining its relations with Beijing while augmenting Japan's military buildup so that it is firm enough not to give China the smallest opening to pounce upon.
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