What’s new: China’s GDP may have grown 5.5% year-on-year in the third quarter as the economy gradually recovers from the Covid-19 pandemic, Caixin’s survey of 16 domestic and overseas institutions showed. Estimates of third-quarter growth ranged from 4.8% to 6.2% with the average reading at 5.5%. That compares with a 3.2% growth rate in the second quarter.
The median estimates of other major indicators also showed the economy continued to improve:
• Retail sales, which include spending by households, governments and businesses, may have grown 2.5% year-on-year in September, faster than the official 0.5% growth rate in August.
• Value-added industrial output, which measures production by factories, mines and utilities, may have grown 5.9% year-on-year last month, accelerating from a 5.6% increase the previous month.
• Fixed-asset investment, a key driver of domestic demand, may have risen 0.8% year-on-year in the first nine months this year, reversing a 0.3% decline over the first eight months.
What’s the background: China is scheduled Monday to release third-quarter GDP and major economic data for September. Although the economy has improved from the fallout of the pandemic, it is still facing challenges from weaker external demand in other coronavirus-stricken countries.
Contact reporter Tang Ziyi (ziyitang@caixin.com) and editor Marcus Ryder (marcusryder@caixin.com)
