- Battery giant CATL predicts that EVs will outsell combustion heavy-duty trucks in China by 2028.
- It launched a battery module compatible with most electric trucks and is setting up a network of battery-swapping stations.
- EVs made up 20.9% of all heavy-duty trucks sold in China in December 2024.
China has become a global leader in electric cars and car tech, with one of the highest personal EV adoption rates in the world. But it's also ahead of everyone else when it comes to electric heavy-duty truck sales.
Electric trucks accounted for 10% of all Chinese heavy-duty truck sales last year. Gasgoo quotes the boss of Chinese battery manufacturing juggernaut CATL, Zeng Yuqun, saying that this will keep rising and hit 50% by 2028. If this trend prediction proves accurate, then diesel will cease to be the most popular means of propulsion for heavy-duty commercial vehicles, since natural gas and fuel cell electric vehicles are also increasing in popularity in China.
This popularity is spurred by new policies that encourage businesses to choose EVs over combustion vehicles and machinery. China is looking at ways of cutting carbon emissions, 60% of which it estimates come from commercial vehicles hauling freight.
The International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) says the percentage of new electric trucks bought last year was even higher, 13%, and it rose to 20.9% in December of last year, showing clear signs of growth. It also notes that diesel truck sales made up 57% in 2024, down from 70% in 2023. Some 581 fuel cell electric trucks were also purchased in China last year, gaining a 0.8% market share.
Thanks to recent advancements in charging speeds—there are chargers capable of delivering 1 megawatt of power, which is needed to replenish trucks’ vast batteries without too much downtime—the People’s Republic is in a great position to transition to heavy-duty EVs quicker than other countries.
CATL also wants to establish battery-swapping station networks specifically for electric trucks. It recently unveiled the 75# standardized battery module, which the company says will be compatible with around 95% of all electric trucks. One station will be able to handle 700,000 kWh of swaps in one day, with each battery swap taking around five minutes.
It plans to build 300 such stations by the end of the year, and this battery-swapping network is the key to pushing the market share of heavy-duty EVs to 50% and beyond. By 2030, CATL intends to expand this network to cover 93,000 miles (150,000 km) of roads between 16 major cities, which would be enough to meet 80% of the country’s road freight needs.
The incentive for truck operators to switch to electric trucks is not just to reduce emissions and improve air quality, which is a big issue around major urban centers in China. There’s also an economic incentive. CATL says that using its battery swapping stations will bring savings of $8,300 (60,000 yuan) for every 62,000 miles (100,000 km) traveled.
Manufacturers of heavy-duty EVs in China don’t just want to sell locally. Long-haul trucks like the Windrose E1400, which looks like a Tesla Semi copy complete with a central driving position, are expected to enter production soon, with its claimed range of 416 miles with a combined tractor and trailer weight of 98,000 pounds (49 tons).
That’s thanks to a massive 729 kilowatt-hour LFP battery pack that can be recharged at almost 1 megawatt if sufficiently powerful chargers are hooked up to both of its two charging ports. Its efficiency, going only on the manufacturer’s claimed figures, works out to around 1.75 kWh per mile, which makes it more frugal than the Tesla Semi, whose claimed consumption is 2 kWh per mile while fully loaded with a gross combined weight of 82,000 pounds (41 tons).
This is just one of the many heavy-duty EVs coming out of China. There are dozens of them. Some offer even bigger batteries, with one from Sany packing a 1,165 kWh battery. That gives it a claimed range of 497 miles (800 km).
It's not hard to see a future where one of these is a hit. And with the infrastructure to support a true long-haul battery swapping network, a future where 50% of trucks are electric seems within reach.
