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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Business
Graeme Wearden

Markets hit by UK quarantine move and China retail sales fall - as it happened

A family at the beach close to Dover Ferry terminal.
A family at the beach close to Dover Ferry terminal. Photograph: Andy Rain/EPA

Markets close lower

And finally, after a turbulent day the FTSE 100 index has closed down 1.5%.

The blue-chip index lost 93 points to finish at 6,092, wiping out the gains earlier this week.

Travel companies led the losers, withe IAG finishing 4.4% lower, TUI shedding 8.3% and easyJet off 7.2%.

Jet engine maker Rolls-Royce (-3.5%) and aerospace engineer Melrose (-3.3%) were also among the big fallers, reflecting fears that the airline industry will not recover quickly from the pandemic.

Shares also fell across Europe, with France’s CAC dropping by 1.3%. But overall, European shares gained 1.3% during the week.

Investors have plenty to ponder over the weekend, though. Does the slowdown in US retail sales growth, weak consumer confidence, rising Covid-19 cases, travel bans and underwhelming Chinese spending and industrial production data shows that the recovery is faltering?

Have a lovely weekend. GW

Back to the US...and the increase in retail sales last month has lifted consumer spending back to pre-pandemic levels.

However, as noted earlier.... Americans may be spending more, but they’re not as optimistic as before.

With an hour to go until the close, European markets are still solidly in the red.

The FTSE 100’s hovering around 6086, a drop of 99 points (-1.6%), with travel and leisure companies still doing the damage.

Connor Campbell of SpreadEx says it’s been an ‘increasingly nasty session’:

Though markets shook off the week’s – admittedly long-teased – second quarter GDP contraction in the UK, a worse than forecast Chinese retail sales reading seemed to pose more of a problem for traders. This was further compounded by a retail sales miss out of the US (though the core figure did improve on estimates).

The real issue in Europe, however, was the latest quarantine decision from the UK government, removing France, like Spain, from its travel corridor. And with reports Macron could do the same in retaliation, investors received an unwelcome reminder that countries may have ran before they could walk with things like holidays.

Just in: US consumer confidence has improved slightly this month, but remains low.

The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index has risen to 72.8 for August, up from 72.5 in July.

Before the pandemic struck, it had been steadily in the 90-point region.

Anxiety over the economic cost of the pandemic is weighing on Wall Street as trading begins.

The benchmark S&P 500 has opened a little lower, having nearly hit record highs earlier this week. Technology stocks, though, are holding up better.

  • Dow: down 87 points or 0.3% at 27,809
  • S&P 500: down 4.6 points or 0.14% at 3,368.81
  • Nasdaq: up 6 points or 0.062% at 11,049

Companies beyond the travel industry who are vulnerable to fresh lockdown restrictions are also falling today.

GVC, the betting firm behind Ladbrokes Coral, is down 3.1%. It was hurt by the cancellation of sporting events during the pandemic.

Publishing and exhibitions group Informa, which was forced to cancel conferences this year, has dropped by 3.7%.

Second-hand car dealer Autotrader is also down by 3.2%; there will be less demand for vehicles the longer people work from home rather than returning to the office.

Nearly £2bn has been wiped off Europe’s travel and leisure industry today.

The Stoxx 600 Travel and Leisure index (which was worth €95.5bn last night) is currently down 2.3%, showing the impact of the travel restrictions.

Top fallers are companies exposed to the new UK quarantine rules, including budget airlines easyJet (-8%) and Ryanair (-4.6%) , holiday operator TUI (-7.4%), BA’s parent IAG (-5.8%), and hotel operator Whitbread (-3.3%).

Updated

Some snap reaction to the US retail sales figures:

US retail sales miss forecasts

Just in: Retail spending across the US rose in July, but not as much as expected.

Retail sales jumped by 1.2% in last month, compared to June -- when they had surged by 8.4%.

Economists had expected a rise of almost 2%, so this indicates that the US economy isn’t recovering as fast as hoped (like in China).

Sales of cars, and auto parts, fell by 1.2% during the month, pulling the headline number down. Strip that out, though, and retail sales actually beat forecasts with a rise of 1.9%.

Reaction to follow...

Here’s my colleague Richard Partington on the weak Chinese retail sales figures:

Fears over the strength of China’s economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic have been raised after retail sales slumped in July and industrial production remained subdued.

Fuelling concerns for the world economy, retail sales in China dropped in July by 1.1% compared with the same month a year ago, missing predictions for a small increase in consumer spending.

As the first country to be hit by the Covid-19 pandemic, and the first to ease lockdown rules, the world’s second-largest economy is seen as a bellwether for other nations battling to save jobs and reboot growth.

Separate figures showed industrial output grew 4.8% in July from a year earlier, the same level as recorded in June but less than the 5.1% increase estimated by City economists.

Wall Street is expected to follow Europe’s lead when trading begins in 90 minutes:

But first....the latest US retail sales figures, due in half an hour, could change the mood.

Our main Covid-19 liveblog has all the details on the quarantine changes, including the prospect that France imposes its own restrictions in return.

France’s European affairs minister, Clément Beaune, tweeted that the government regretted the British decision that “will lead to a reciprocal measure”, while adding “hoping for a return to normal as soon as possible”.

Transport minister Jean-Baptiste Djebbari echoed these words, tweeting: “I told my counterpart Grant Shapps of our willingness to harmonise health protocols to assure a high level of protection on both sides of the channel.”

The record-breaking slump in eurozone employment in the last quarter (see here) has wiped out swathes of jobs created since the last recession.

And with nearly 5 million jobs already lost, many more are at risk as governments move towards winding up their job retention schemes.

Bloomberg has the details:

The coronavirus pandemic has wiped out nearly half of the 12 million euro-area jobs created in the seven years since the last recession, in another sign of the enormous damage wreaked on the economy.

Employment slumped by 4.9 million in first half of the year, almost all in the second quarter when the most stringent measures to contain the spread of the virus were in place.

More declines are likely. Generous furlough programs across the 19-nation bloc have so far contained the fallout on the labor market from a record economic contraction, with a rise in unemployment that is more modest than in the U.S.

Governments are now facing tough choices on how to wind down those programs though, as they weigh ballooning debt against the consequences of massive job losses for the economy.

Markets hit by quarantine, China fears and stimulus worries

European stock markets are all solidly in the red as lunchtime approaches.

The FTSE 100 is currently down 1.8%, with travel shares worst hit on a bad day for stocks. IAG is currently down 5.5%, with easyJet shedding 6.4%.

France’s CAC index is down nearly 1.9%, with the UK’s new quarantine rules casting a pall over the bourses.

Investors are worried that the Covid-19 crisis is entering a new phase, with cases rising in some European countries this week.

Alastair George, head strategist at Edison Investment Research, says:

“What we have got is a significant amount of uncertainty over the evolution of coronavirus pandemic, which is maintaining a risk premium for the transportation, leisure and hospitality sectors.”

Here’s the damage:

European stock markets, noon, 14 August

Markets are also concerned that China’s economy isn’t rebounding faster, with retail sales falling year-on-year in July for the seventh month in a row (see opening post for details).

There’s also disappointment that US politicians haven’t agreed a new stimulus package to help America’s economy. The two sides remain deadlocked over the size of the package, and about how much help to provide to unemployed Americans.

In a worrying twist, president Trump is now opposing additional funding for the United States Postal Service (USPS) in order to make it more difficult to deliver mail-in ballots.

Raffi Boyadjian, senior investment analyst at XM, says hopes of a quick deal are fading:

A deal on a new coronavirus relief package looked increasingly out of reach as US Senators left Washington for the summer recess, pushing the likely timing of an agreement to September when both houses return. A last-ditch attempt on Wednesday to resume talks went nowhere with Republicans refusing to meet Democrats halfway for a $2 trillion stimulus package and President Trump yesterday saying he would block any deal that contains additional funding for the Post Office.

Trump is strongly opposed to the use of mail-in voting for the forthcoming presidential election out of fear that it may harm his prospects of defeating his Democratic foe Joe Biden. His objection to any extra funds for the Post Office that would help expand voting by mail could further scupper the chances of reaching a bipartisan compromise.

While it’s possible that some negotiations may take place before the Senate reconvenes on September 8, the odds of a deal before then are slim.

Denmark in historic fall in GDP

Denmark and Finland have joined the ranks of countries whose economies shrank last quarter.

Denmark suffered a historically bad drop in GDP, down 7.4% in April-June during the lockdown. Finland was less badly hit, contracting by 3.2%.

That’s actually better than the EU average, of an 11.7% decline,and is less severe than neighbour Sweden (which took a more relaxed approach to Covid-19 lockdowns, and shrank by 8.6%)

Updated

The UK travel industry has warned that the new restrictions on travel to France is a “devastating blow” and will lead to job losses.

My colleague Gwyn Topham has the details:

Airlines UK, which represents the biggest carriers, said the decision was “another devastating blow to the travel industry already reeling from the worst crisis in its history”.

It urged the government to bring in a new testing regime and change its approach to quarantine to end its “broad-brush, weekly stop-and-go changes to travel corridors at a national level, which have proven so disruptive to airlines and passengers alike.”

The travel association Abta said the news would result in livelihoods being lost unless the government could help the industry. A spokesman said: “The announcements relating to Spain and now France impact the two biggest destinations for British holidaymakers at the height of the summer season. At this time of recession, a plan is urgently needed to protect the 221,000 jobs the travel industry sustains.”

The British Ports Association said it was “extremely disappointing news” that would cause much disruption and hit passenger operators hard.

More here:

Global oil prices slipped below $45 a barrel on Friday morning as the market turned its attention away from encouraging signs that US oil stockpiles are receding and towards the gloomier economic picture in China.

The slowdown in China’s retail market underlined concerns raised on Thursday by the International Energy Agency that a sluggish recovery from the pandemic would lead to lower than expected oil demand this year, and in 2021 too.

The price of Brent crude has fallen to $44.57, away from the five-month highs seen earlier this month.

Here’s our full story on the slump in travel stocks this morning:

Record fall in eurozone employment

Over in the eurozone, employment has fallen sharply as the region’s economy plunged into its worst ever recesssion.

The number of employed persons decreased by 2.8% in the euro area, and by 2.6% in the EU in the second quarter of 2020, compared to January-March.

That’s according to new data from Eurostat, which says these are “the sharpest declines observed since time series started in 1995”.

That’s a drop of around 5m people, the FT points out.

Eurostat also confirmed that the eurozone economy shrank by an unprecedented 12.1% in April-June, in line with its first estimate two weeks ago.

That’s a very sharp slide, worse than the US’s 9.5% drop, but not as bad as the UK’s 20.4% tumble.

Updated

Shares in IAG (which owns British Airways and Iberia) are falling back towards the seven-year lows seen earlier this month:

IAG’s share price this year
IAG’s share price this year Photograph: Refinitiv

EasyJet is also dropping back towards levels seen earlier in the crisis:

EasyJet’s share price this year
EasyJet’s share price this year Photograph: Refinitiv

The Office for National Statistics has also found that people are more worried about losing their jobs, but also happier to visit pubs and restaurants.

It says:

  • 4 in 10 adults (40%) said they would feel comfortable or very comfortable eating indoors at a restaurant this week, an increase from 37% last week, and 34% the week before.
  • Of those adults who had left their homes this week, almost 3 in 10 (28%) said they had visited a café, pub or restaurant, an increase from 10% four weeks ago (period covering 8 July to 12 July 2020).
  • 4 in 10 adults (40%) reported that the coronavirus was affecting their well-being this week; of these adults, 18% reported that they were worried about a possible job loss – an increase from 14% last week.

The survey took place between Wednesday 5 August and 9 August 2020 - so just after the Eat Out To Help Out scheme began.

ONS: Quarantine rules would deter 62% of holidaymakers

Six in ten UK adults would be put off from travelling abroad if they had to quarantine afterwards, and a fifth have already scrapped holidays.

That’s according to Office for National Statistics, in its latest survey of the economic impact of Covid-19.

The ONS found that over 6 in 10 adults (62%) said they were very unlikely to travel abroad on holiday if they had to self-isolate at home for two weeks upon their return to the UK.

The survey also found that 1 in 5 adults (20%) have already cancelled travel plans abroad because of this need to self-isolate.

This survey took place after the UK imposed quarantine restrictions on people arriving from Spain (but obviously before France and the Netherlands were added last night).

The ONS explains:

This week, we asked adults how likely or unlikely they were to travel abroad on holiday if they had to self-isolate at home for two weeks upon their return to the UK. Of all adults, 1 in 10 (10%) said they were likely or very likely to travel with the knowledge that they would have to self-isolate for 14 days, however, 62% of respondents said they were very unlikely to travel if this were the case.

We also asked all adults how the possibility of having to self-isolate for 14 days upon returning home from holidays abroad had affected their travel plans. Of all adults, 1 in 5 (20%) reported that they had cancelled their travel plans and 14% said they had decided to holiday in the UK instead of travelling abroad this year.

How Covid-19 has affected UK holiday plans
How Covid-19 has affected UK holiday plans Photograph: ONS

Which?: airlines must act responsibily

The consumer group Which? is warning travellers will be” disproportionately” paying the price for the government’s flip -flop approach to foreign holidays this year.

Rory Boland, Which?’s travel editor, says the quarantine changes will cost holidaymakers:

“It’s understandable that the government wants to restrict travel to these countries at this time, but the burden of this decision disproportionately falls on holidaymakers – thousands of whom are likely to be left significantly out of pocket because their airline will refuse to refund them,”

“Unlike tour operators, airlines now routinely ignore FCO travel warnings and refuse refunds because, they argue, the flight is still operating. Some major airlines, like Ryanair, won’t even allow customers to rebook without charging a hefty fee.

“The government wants us to act responsibly and not travel to countries with an FCO warning, but it needs to make it clear to airlines that they too need to act responsibly and not ignore government travel advice in an effort to pocket customer cash.”

The UK’s new quarantine rules are a serious blow to the travel sector, says Russ Mould, investment director at financial platform AJ Bell.

“The problem for the airlines is that people’s desire for a break in the sun may be outweighed by their fear of the logistical challenges of holing up for two weeks when they get back, with decisions on which countries to add to the quarantine list often coming at short notice.

“This decision will feel particularly painful as it comes at the height of the UK holiday season and the question now becomes just how long the likes of EasyJet, Ryanair and British Airways-owner International Consolidated Airlines can continue under these conditions.

“It appears summer 2020 will be something of a write off, the industry cannot afford for the same to be true in 12 months.

“And yet until there is a vaccine, the recovery from the coronavirus is likely to be patchy with the risk of travel restrictions between countries when there are localised flare ups.”

EasyJet has said it will keep operating a full schedule, despite the quarantine changes.

Reuters has the details:

UK airline easyJet said it planned to operate its full schedule in the coming days despite last minute changes to quarantine rules for those arriving in Britain from France, Malta and the Netherlands which could deter travel.

“We plan to operate our full schedule in the coming days,” the airline said.

If customers no longer wish to travel they can switch their flights without a change fee, or receive a voucher for the value of the booking, easyJet said. Customers will be notified of any cancellations later in August.

EasyJet operates more than 150 flights a week between the UK and France, it said on Friday.

The selloff is gathering pace, with the blue-chip FTSE 100 now down 1.95% or 119 points at 6066.

That wipes out the market’s strong gains earlier this week, when shares rallied on hopes of economic recovery and a new US stimulus package.

Now, though, the UK’s new quarantine rules (and weak retail sales figures from China overnight) have spooked investors.

British Airways parent company IAG is currently down over 6%, as traders anticipate a flurry of cancelled bookings and less demand for flights between the UK and France. EasyJet is trading 7% lower.

There are now only two risers on the Footsie -- takeaway firm Just Eat and cardboard box maker Smurfit Kappa.

Here’s some advice for those planning a holiday to France, or already there.

Analyst: Quarantine move will hurt consumer confidence

Neil Wilson of Markets.com says the UK’s decision will hurt consumer confidence, as well as ruining holidays:

With France being added to the quarantine list for the UK, travel & leisure is under pressure. Shares in IAG, Ryanair, Tui and EasyJet were all sharply lower as the move will force a large swathe of cancellations right at the peak of the summer holiday season for one of the largest markets for UK tourists. Half a million Brits are thought to be in France right now. Related stocks were also hit. WH Smith – purveyor of overpriced sweets and free Evian – slipped down the board as a result.

Apart from the immediate damage this will do at the height of the school holidays and peak summer season, the quarantine decision also underlines the inherent risk you take in booking a holiday abroad right now, which will do nothing for consumer confidence.

Updated

Travel companies are the top fallers across Europe’s stock markets this morning, with easyJet and TUI worst hit.

The top fallers on the Stoxx 600 index, Friday August 14
The top fallers on the Stoxx 600 index in early trading Photograph: Refinitiv

This has dragged the Europe-wide Stoxx 600 index down by 0.8%.

In London, the FTSE 100 is down 53 points or 0.86%, with most shares losing ground (just eight risers).

The FTSE 100
The FTSE 100 Photograph: Refinitiv

Shares in hotel groups are also dropping after the UK added France, the Netherlands and Malta to its quarantine list.

InterContinental, which runs Holiday Inns and Crowne Plaza, are down 2.7%.

Premier Inns owner Whitbread has dropped by 2.7%.

Retail group WH Smiths has fallen by 5.5%, as investors anticipate fewer visitors to shops at airports and railway stations.

Shares in French travel companies are also falling in early trading, with Air France-KLM dropping 3%.

Reuters has more details:

Shares in Getlink, which runs Eurotunnel, have dropped 2.2%. ADP, which runs Paris’ airports, fell 2.3% while hotels company Accor was down 2.1%.

Travel company shares slide after France quarantine move

In the City, shares in holiday companies and airlines have fallen sharply after the UK government added France to its Covid-19 14-day quarantine list.

IAG, which owns British Airways, has fallen 4% in early trading, making it the worst-performing company on the blue-chip FTSE 100.

Budget airline easyJet (-5.5%) and holiday operator TUI (-6%) are also being hit by the news that anyone entering the UK from France will have to quarantine for two weeks. The Netherlands and Malta have also been added to the list.

Rolls-Royce, which makes jet engines, has dropped by 4% as well.

As my colleague Simon Murphy explains, the move will affect hundreds of thousands of people, and probably lead to reciprocal action by France.

Hundreds of thousands of holidaymakers’ plans have been plunged into chaos after the government confirmed that France would be removed from the UK’s travel corridor list following a surge in Covid-19 cases.

The move, which will mean arrivals into UK from France will have to quarantine for 14 days on their return or face a fine, will come into effect at 4am on Saturday leaving a window of little more than 30 hours for travellers to get home if they want to escape the measure.

It comes after France – the second most popular holiday destination for Britons – recorded a post-lockdown record daily increase in new coronavirus cases of 2,669 in the previous 24 hours.

Spain, the UK’s favourite tourist destination, was removed from the safe corridor list on 26 July.

Updated

The South China Morning Post points out that China’s industrial engine has recovered from the coronavirus shutdown ahead of other parts of the economy.

Here’s their take on the 4.8% rise in industrial output last month:

Within industrial production, manufacturing output grew by 6.0 per cent year-on-year, while mining shrank by 2.6 per cent.

Fixed asset investment, a cumulative measurement of expenditure on infrastructure, property and capital goods in the year so far, fell by 1.6 per cent over the first seven months of 2020. But it is edging closer to growth, improving from the 3.1 per cent decline in the first six months of the year, and 6.3 per cent in the first five. July’s drop was in line with expectations.

On a monthly basis, compared to a year earlier, fixed asset investment actually grew by 4.8 per cent, a product of a significant construction boom taking shape in China which has led to huge shipments of iron ore and coal and debt issuance in the private and public sectors.

Updated

ING economist Iris Pang says today’s data shows China is more reliant on its domestic economy.

She writes:

Retail sales fell 1.1%YoY in July, better than -1.8%YoY a month ago. The main reason for the continued negative yearly growth in retail sales was the -11.0%YoY spending on catering, which results from social distancing measures in China. We do not expect this situation to change particularly over the rest of 2020, or until there is an effective vaccine for Covid-19.

We also observe that high-end spending has returned. Chinese tourists could not travel abroad during the summer holidays because of travel restrictions from other economies. But cross-province travel is now allowed in China. This resulted in growth in spending on cosmetics and jewellery rising by 9.2%YoY and 7.5%YoY respectively.

Industrial production stabilised at 4.8%YoY growth in July from the previous month. Most of the growth came from automobiles, industrial robots, machinery and telecommunication production, at 21.6%YoY, 19.4%YoY, 15.6%YoY, and 11.8%YoY respectively. This production is partly for export, as seen from June‘s export recovery, and partly for domestic use as some exports and most domestic orders continue to recover from the trough of the production cycle in 1H20.

Spending on catering in China fell particularly sharply in July, down 11 % year-on-year.

But there are positives too -- with spending on cars and mobile phones rising.

China’s NBS says:

In July, sales of upgraded consumer goods continued to grow with that of automobiles went up by 12.3 percent [year-on-year], while it was down by 8.2 percent in June; and that of communication equipment and cosmetics went up by 11.3 percent and 9.2 percent respectively.

Introduction: Chinese retail sales fall again

A shopping mall in Beijing today.
A shopping mall in Beijing today. Photograph: Mark Schiefelbein/AP

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

As the first country to be hit by the Covid-19 pandemic, and the first to ease lockdown rules, China is a litmus test for global economic prospects.

So it’s rather concerning that retail spending actually fell last month, while factory output was weak.

China’s National Bureau of Statistics had reported today that retail sales across the country dropped by 1.1% year-on-year in July. That dashed hopes of a 0.1% rise, following a 1.8% decline in June, and means that retail sales have fallen for seven months in a row.

Factory output was also subdued (at least by China’s standards), rising just 4.8% compared with the year before. Again, that’s below forecasts for a 5.1% rise.

It suggests that China’s recovery from the coronavirus pandemic remains muted, which will undermine hopes of a V-shaped revival in growth.

Michael Hewson of CMC Markets says the Chinese recovery looks weak....

Retail sales growth in China hasn’t been the same since the country came out of lockdown at the end of February, though optimism over the July numbers had been increasing given recent positive data from the auto sector in July, as well as reports from the likes of Daimler, and Apple talking of some decent rebounds in their Chinese markets.

Expectations were for a number in the region of 0.1%, which on the face of it still seemed a little on the low side, given the recent decent set of numbers from TenCent, with Alibaba’s numbers set to come later today.

This makes today’s negative reading of 1.1% somewhat of a surprise, and shows that the Chinese consumer still remains quite nervous about coming out of hibernation, with the last time we saw a positive reading being the end of last year, when we saw a gain of 8% for December.

It’s possible that the recent floods in part of China hit retail spending, of course, so the underlying picture could be a little better.

As Stephen Innes of AxiCorp puts it:

I believe the recent heavy rains and floods in Southern China disrupted some domestic activities. Although the affected areas - mainly Jiangxi, Anhui, Hubei, and Hunan - so far do not appear to include China’s key economic hubs, activity data likely would have been stronger without these weather-related impacts.

We’ll find out later today whether US retail spending was perkier, along with updated eurozone GDP figures.

Otherwise, it could be another slow day in the City, with European stock markets expected to show little change....

The agenda

  • 8.30am BST: Netherlands GDP for Q2 2020
  • 10am BST: Second estimate of eurozone GDP in Q2 2020
  • 1.30pm BST: US retail sales for July
  • 3pm BST: University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index for August

Updated

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