The Chinese president, Xi Jinping, must prove to the world he is a reformer by granting Hong Kong genuine democracy, a leading activist has said on the eve of a highly contentious vote on the former British colony’s political future.
Martin Lee, the founding chairman of Hong Kong’s Democratic party, said he believed pro-democracy lawmakers would reject a Beijing-backed “political reform package” governing the 2017 election of Hong Kong’s chief executive when they convened to discuss it on Wednesday.
Under the plans, Hong Kong’s citizens would be able to vote for their future leaders – but only after candidates had been approved by a pro-Beijing “nominating committee”.
“This is not genuine universal suffrage. The people of Hong Kong are given the vote but they select all the candidates. This is rotten. This is totally unacceptable,” Lee said, urging China’s president to scrap the proposals.
“What better thing can Xi Jinping do than to show the world that he is a reformer and how better to show it than by giving Hong Kong democracy which was already promised?
“I see hope in him and if I’m right then the whole world will applaud. If I’m wrong then that is going to be terrible,” he added.
But with hours to go before Hong Kong’s parliament meets to vote on the package, a sudden about-turn from the Communist party is unthinkable.
“I am one of the very few people who are optimistic,” admitted Lee.
Beijing has refused to modify its controversial plans – originally unveiled last August – despite mass demonstrations and a 79-day occupation of Hong Kong’s financial heart during last year’s Umbrella movement.
The blueprint, which if approved would come into effect in 2017, was “feasible, rational and pragmatic”, Hong Lei, a spokesperson for Beijing’s ministry of foreign affairs, said last week.
The 70 members of Hong Kong’s parliament will be given the choice of supporting or rejecting a bill that supporters say is a vital step towards universal suffrage but detractors label “fake democracy”.
At least four of its 27 pro-democracy lawmakers need to switch sides for the package to be approved.
Senior officials in Hong Kong and Beijing “believed intense backroom lobbying would crack unity” among that group, Reuters reported last week.
Rumours have been swirling for months about possible incentives – including financial ones – the Communist party might have offered to lure pro-democracy politicians to its side, said Suzanne Pepper, a political writer and blogger. “The truth is nobody knows. You just assume that things are going on,” she said.
However, on the eve of the vote – which is likely to take place on Thursday or Friday – experts and pro-democracy lawmakers said the most likely outcome was the package’s defeat.
“Initially, I thought that they would buckle, that the pan-democrats would not be able to hold to their vow of vetoing it. Now, increasingly, it looks like they do mean to hold the line on that,” said Pepper.
Claudia Mo, a pro-democracy lawmaker, said: “I am 101% confident that the democrats in Hong Kong will veto this so-called political reform package. I have made a solemn promise that I will vote it down.”
“We all know that keeping the status quo is not ideal but as of now it is the best thing to do,” Mo added. “We just want to make sure that things don’t get worse in Hong Kong.”
But Tian Feilong, a law professor at Beijing’s Beihang University who has criticised the plan’s opponents, said the vote represented “the first time Hong Kong has a chance to achieve universal suffrage”.
“At the moment, the odds for the package being voted through or voted down are 50/50,” he said.
Lee predicted a furious reaction if pro-democracy lawmakers “betrayed” their electorate by caving in to Beijing at the last minute.
“After the ‘umbrella movement’, young people will certainly not accept this position,” he said. Asked whether there could be renewed large-scale protests, he said: “Of course. Of course. These young people will certainly not give up.”
Nathan Law, the secretary general of the Hong Kong Federation of Students, told the Guardian a Beijing victory would “further radicalise” its opponents in the former colony.
“There will be protest activities should the package voted through. There definitely will be protest activities,” said Law, whose group played a key role in last year’s demonstrations. “As for whether it would be another occupation, I don’t know yet.”
Dozens of police surrounded Hong Kong’s government headquarters this week as the “special administrative region” braced itself for possible unrest.
“If this so-called reform is really passed there will be riots in Hong Kong. It is going to be unthinkable,” said Mo. “So for the sake of stability let’s have it vetoed first and then we’ll move on from there.”
Carrie Lam, Hong Kong’s number two official, also warned of “violent protests”, writing in the South China Morning Post: “I urge all protesters to express their views calmly and peacefully.”
However, Pepper played down the possibility of major upheaval. “There will be small protests like we’ve seen already, last week and the week before. But I really don’t think there is going to be another Occupy,” she said.
The umbrella movement protests did not achieve “what the demonstrators wanted and of course they didn’t have a well thought out strategy”.
“In terms of actual reoccupying I think that is probably not likely and if it [happens] it will be small scale and people won’t stick around very long.”
Additional reporting by Luna Lin
