What’s new: China launched a special campaign to prevent and punish statistical fraud, aiming to improve the accuracy of economic data.
The campaign started in March and will last until February 2024. The first stage of self-inspection and correction in some regions is about to be completed.
Analysts said economic data such as industrial output, fixed asset investment and real estate development investment may fluctuate more in the short term as a result of the campaign.
Huachuang Securities chief macro analyst Zhang Yu said in a report that volatility in economic data increased recently, probably because of the special campaign. For example, industrial output and fixed asset investment fell in April from March in all but one province, which is rare, Zhang said.
The background: The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) recently revised downward some of its 2022 economic data, providing a more favorable comparison for real estate and other statistics reported for the first four months of this year.
The revisions reflect contract cancellations and refunds, correct problems in data discovered during inspections and exclude data involving debt repayments, the NBS said. The
2022 sales figures were inflated because of the cancellation of contracts and the debt repayment transactions, the NBS said.
Contact reporter Denise Jia (huijuanjia@caixin.com) and editor Bob Simison (bob.simison@caixin.com)
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