China has begun its most extensive military exercise around Taiwan in years, in a surge of force that analysts warn could inflame regional tensions and raise fears of wider confrontation.
Beijing's 'Justice Mission 2025' drills, launched on 29 December 2025, involve coordinated live-fire operations by the People's Liberation Army (PLA) and simulate blockades and joint strikes around Taiwan, according to Chinese state military sources and international reporting.
Taipei has responded by putting its forces on high alert and initiating rapid-response drills, while diplomatic tensions with the United States and Japan have grown amid recent arms sales and political statements.
Largest Drills Since 2022 Mark Strategic Shift
China's PLA Eastern Theatre Command announced the start of Justice Mission 2025 early on Monday, deploying units from its Army, Navy, Air Force and Rocket Force to conduct exercises in the Taiwan Strait and surrounding airspace and waters.
The drills focus on sea-air combat readiness patrols, joint seizure of comprehensive superiority, and blockade of key port areas, with forces approaching Taiwan from multiple directions. Senior Colonel Shi Yi, the Eastern Theatre Command spokesperson, told state media the operation was a 'stern warning' to 'Taiwan independence separatist forces and external interference', and a legitimate action to safeguard national sovereignty and unity.
China 'all-dimensional' largest live-fire drills to 'blockade & shield Taiwan from US' after massive Trump arms deal
— RT (@RT_com) December 29, 2025
Army navy air & rockets move in tomorrow in biggest show of force since Taiwan Strait Crisis pic.twitter.com/vvpobgPbXN
Flight and navigation warnings have been issued for several zones around the island, and live-fire exercises are scheduled to continue through Tuesday, marking some of the broadest and closest proximity drills to Taiwan's main island since 2022.
This ground-to-sea force deployment surpasses earlier Strait Thunder-2025A drills in April, which included precision strikes and naval blockades but did not involve exercises of this scale around Taiwan's immediate vicinity.
Taiwan's Ministry of National Defence reported detecting numerous PLA aircraft, warships and coastguard vessels operating near the island, prompting its own rapid response exercises to rehearse defending against any sudden escalation.
Regional Diplomatic Strains and Military Signalling
The timing of Justice Mission 2025 coincides with heightened Sino-US and Sino-Japanese friction. In mid-December, the U.S. government approved an arms sale to Taiwan worth £8.8 billion ($11.1 billion), the largest on record, provoking strong protest from Beijing and setting the stage for retaliation.
In parallel, comments by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi in November signalling that an attack on Taiwan could trigger a defensive response from Japan have aggravated relations. Beijing's diplomatic leadership publicly admonished Tokyo for what it described as crossing a 'red line' on Taiwan.
🇨🇳🇹🇼 China launches large-scale military drills encircling Taiwan, calling them a “stern warning” to Taiwan independence separatist forces.
— Europa.com (@europa) December 29, 2025
Live-fire destroyers, frigates, fighter-bombers and drones are rehearsing missile strikes targeting key Taiwanese ports.
Follow: @europa pic.twitter.com/E774Db31Vs
Taipei's presidential office issued statements condemning the drills as military intimidation that undermines regional peace and international law, while calling on China to halt provocative actions.
The United States has reiterated its policy of strategic ambiguity towards Taiwan, providing defensive military support without explicitly committing to armed intervention, though it has condemned escalating military coercion in the region. Public statements from the U.S. State Department and Pentagon in 2025 have emphasised the need for restraint and peace but accepted arms transfers under the Taiwan Relations Act.
Military Posture and Escalation Risks
The scope of Justice Mission 2025 reflects China's rapidly advancing anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) capabilities and a willingness to project military power beyond routine exercises. The inclusion of simulated blockade scenarios and multi-domain joint assaults indicates a focus on potential encirclement strategies that could be deployed in a broader conflict.
Taipei's defence planners, meanwhile, are bolstering preparations for 'grey zone' escalations, wherein routine drills could swiftly transition into hostile action without formal declarations of war. Reuters reporting this month noted that Taiwan's military maintains decentralised command readiness to respond promptly to any surprise Chinese offensive.
Japan has simultaneously expanded its defence budget and deepened security cooperation with Indo-Pacific allies, signalling greater readiness to address contingencies involving Taiwan. Washington and Tokyo continue to exchange strategic assessments, with Japan emphasising close monitoring of Chinese military movements around the island.
Recent arms deals, strong political statements, and increased military activity around Taiwan have led defence analysts to warn of a higher risk of miscalculation or accidental conflict, with some raising concerns about the possibility of wider involvement by the United States and Japan.
