China's nationwide emissions trading scheme (ETS) is unlikely to be "fully functional" by 2021, according to a poll published on Tuesday, reflecting the challenges Beijing has faced since launch plans were announced in 2015.
China, the world's biggest source of climate-warming greenhouse gas, is working on the launch of a trading mechanism that will allow industrial firms to buy and sell carbon emission permits, although a precise timetable has not been given.
Most industry stakeholders forecast the first trade - originally expected to happen by the end of 2020 - could be delayed until next year as authorities iron out final details, according to the 2020 China Carbon Pricing Survey.
Only 12% of the 567 respondents expected a "fully functional" nationwide ETS by 2021.
Still, nearly three quarters believed the network will be fully operational by 2025, with "key building blocks" like monitoring and verification, as well as related legislation, all in place.
The poll, conducted before President Xi Jinping's September promise to make China "carbon neutral" by 2060, showed the sector remains clouded with uncertainty, with more than 40% of respondents predicting the COVID-19 outbreak would delay the launch by six months.
China's leading climate change official, Li Gao, said in January that the first phase of the market, which will cover more than 2,000 power plants, was likely to see a "breakthrough" before the year was out.
But in October, Li declined to give a precise date on when trade would begin, saying only that the bulk of the market-building work would take place over 2021-2025.
However, Xi's carbon neutrality pledge should now raise the ETS's position on the government's agenda and raise expectations among market players, Dmitri de Boer, one of the report's authors said.
"The vow changed the whole game," he said. "Some results, for instance carbon price expectation, carbon peaking expectation and the starting date of the national ETS would be different."
(Reporting by Muyu Xu and David Stanway; editing by Richard Pullin)
