The Coalition has flatly rejected the results of modelling that shows most families would be better off under Labor’s childcare and family payments policy than under its own over the next two years.
The education minister, Simon Birmingham, said he would rather stick with official analysis from the Department of Education that showed more than one million families would benefit from his reforms.
He questioned Labor’s record in government, saying the last time Labor tinkered with childcare, fees grew by 7.8% a year on average, spiking nearly 12.5% in 2009.
“That’s compared to the Coalition’s record where we’ve brought that growth under control, with childcare costs increasing by only 3.6% in the last year,” Birmingham said.
The modelling, by the ANU Centre for Social Research and Methods, looked at the proposed changes to family payments and childcare payments under both parties, and compared the impact of their policies in comparison with current policy for the 2017-18 and 2018-19 financial years.
Since the Coalition policy for childcare begins in 2018-19, its 2017-18 results are affected only by the proposed family payment changes.
It found a marked difference between the financial impact of the parties’ policies over the next two years.
In 2017-18, families on incomes at or below $100,000 a year would most likely be better off under Labor by between $1,099 and $1,504 a year compared with the Coalition, it showed.
After July 2018 – when the Coalition’s childcare policy kicks in – families on lower incomes that pay $100 a day or less for full-time childcarewould be up to $2,395 a year better off under Labor than the Coalition.
The modelling found families with incomes above $100,000, and who pay high fees for full-time childcare, would be much better off under the Coalition.
It was commissioned by parent advocacy group the Parenthood, whose executive director, Jo Briskey, said parents ought to know how the parties’ policies would affect them.
Birmingham’s office said it was impossible to compare the policies before 1 July 2018, because Labor had been stifling the passage of reforms required to fund them.
The government says it had to defer the start of its childcare package by a year, to 1 July 2018, because the Family Tax Benefit changes required to fund it have not been passed by the Senate.
It means Labor’s support for childcare costs starts from 1 January 2017, a full 18 months before the Coalition’s.
Birmingham also questioned the finding that low- and middle-income families will be generally better off under Labor’s policies.
“We stand by the principle that childcare support, heavily subsidised by the taxpayer, must give preference to those who are working, training, studying or volunteering, while being complemented by universal access to preschool education and extensive early education support for disadvantaged children,” Birmingham said.
“Our focus is to better help parents who want or need to work, or who want to work more, while still supporting early childhood education.”
But Labor’s education spokeswoman, Kate Ellis, said the modelling was “just more evidence that families will be better off with Labor”.
“Despite all their promises, the only thing the Liberals have done is to delay any increases in childcare assistance while childcare fees climb under their watch,” Ellis said. “Labor will increase childcare assistance immediately – not in two years’ time, because we know that families have waited long enough.”
