The Kansas City Chiefs will wrap up the first half of their season on Sunday night as they host the Green Bay Packers.
After a two-game losing streak, the Chiefs got a huge bounce-back victory against the Denver Broncos last Thursday. Their defense played its best game of the season by far, hopefully having turned the corner a bit. Unfortunately, quarterback Patrick Mahomes suffered a dislocated right kneecap and will miss this game. Backup Matt Moore will get the start.
As for the Packers, they have won three in a row and are coming off a blowout 42-24 victory over the Oakland Raiders. At 6-1, they are tied for the most wins in the NFC.
Let’s take a closer look at the Packers and see what it will take for Kansas City to come out on top.
CHIEFS-PACKERS HISTORY
The Chiefs lead the all-time series over the Packers with a 7-4-1 record dating all the way back to their matchup in Super Bowl I. The most recent game between these two teams came in 2015, a Monday night game that Green Bay won 38-28 at Lambeau Field.
via the NFL’s official YouTube channel
The Packers dominated the majority of this game, jumping out to a 31-7 lead. The Chiefs were in the midst of a five-game losing streak at the time, which they snapped out of and won their final 10 games.
A previous matchup between these two that could be comparable to their game on Sunday happened in 2011. Green Bay came in at 13-0, and the Chiefs were down on their luck, starting quarterback Kyle Orton for the first time.
Nobody gave the Chiefs a chance, but they stunned the Packers 19-14. Green Bay is on a roll and is favored in Sunday’s game, while the Chiefs are starting Moore for the first time. Could history repeat itself?
PACKERS’ KEY ADDITIONS
OLB Za’Darius Smith
OLB Preston Smith
S Adrian Amos
G Billy Turner
S Darnell Savage
DL Rashan Gary
TE Jace Sternberger
C Elgton Jenkins
PACKERS’ KEY SUBTRACTIONS
OLB Clay Matthews
LB Jake Ryan
WR Randall Cobb
CB Bashaud Breeland
DT Muhammad Wilkerson
OLB Nick Perry
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PACKERS’ COACHING/SCHEMES
Matt LaFleur is in his first season as the Packers head coach. He previously served as an offensive coordinator for the Los Angeles Rams in 2017 and the Tennessee Titans in 2018. He has worked alongside many bright, offensive-minded coaches, including Mike and Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay.
Offensive scheme
Upon arrival to Green Bay, LaFleur hired Nathaniel Hackett as his offensive coordinator, although LaFleur is the offense’s play-caller. Like Chiefs coach Andy Reid, LaFleur’s schemes are rooted in the West Coast offense but are creatively expanded upon.
LaFleur uses 21 personnel (two running backs and a tight end) as his base offense. This forces defenses to stay in its base formations more often. His running game features a lot of inside and outside zone running behind the fullback. Off of that comes a lot of different play-action concepts, including the bootleg.
The short passing game is fairly West Coast-oriented, with the QB getting the ball out of his hands quickly on horizontal passes such as slants and crossing routes. LaFleur also uses a lot of pre-snap motion, which is effective because any skill position can start anywhere and move anywhere else.
To nobody’s surprise, quarterback Aaron Rodgers has carried the Packers offense, leading it to the No. 8 ranked passing offense in the NFL. Green Bay is also eighth in points scored. Its running game has been inconsistent, ranking 20th in the league. The Packers are averaging just 3.9 yards per rushing attempt this season.
Defensive scheme
Former Cleveland Browns head coach Mike Pettine is in his second season as the Packers defensive coordinator. He runs a base 3-4 defense, using a two-gap defensive line (defensive linemen who are responsible for both the A and B gaps) and heavy man coverage in the secondary.
It’s been a shaky start to the 2019 season for Pettine’s defense, which has surrendered the seventh-most yards per game in the NFL. It is allowing just under 130 rushing yards per game, which is ninth-worst in the league. One thing his defense is doing well, however, is creating turnovers. The Packers have forced the fourth-most turnovers in the NFL with 12.
With the Chiefs struggling to run the ball and the Packers struggling to stop the run, it will be interesting to see what gives. Pettine likely won’t show much respect for Moore, so Chiefs running backs could see stacked boxes often.
Pettine’s heavy man-coverage could give the Chiefs’ receivers problems as they have struggled against man, but Tyreek Hill’s return has helped in that department.
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PACKERS’ KEY PLAYERS
QB Aaron Rodgers
Now in his 15th NFL season, there’s nothing Rodgers hasn’t done. He’s a Super Bowl champion, two-time MVP, two-time All-Pro and a future Hall of Famer. He hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down and is having another MVP-caliber season.
Rodgers is coming off what is perhaps his best game every played statistically. He completed 25 of 31 passes for 429 yards and five touchdowns, good for a perfect 158.3 quarterback rating. He was Pro Football Focus’ highest-graded QB in Week 7.
RB Aaron Jones
After a breakout season in 2018, Green Bay committed to Jones as its feature running back in 2019. He is a quick and powerful runner who and also a very good receiving back, leading the Packers in receptions with 27. He has 595 total yards and a league-high nine total touchdowns on the season.
WR Marquez-Valdes Scantling
Scantling has an awesome combination of size and speed, running a 4.3 40-yard dash at 6 feet 4. He is becoming one of the best deep threats in the NFL, leading the league in receptions over 40 yards. Scantling leads Green Bay in receiving yards with 416, averaging an insane 19.8 yards per catch.
OLB Preston Smith
Smith is one of the most underrated pass rushers in the NFL, currently fourth in sacks with seven. He also does a great job of setting the edge against the run and getting run stops in the backfield. Smith has a very quick first step and a knack for timing snaps.
OLB Za’Darius Smith
The Packers have another great pass rusher named Smith in Za’Darius Smith. Za’Darius plays with a high motor and is also very good against the run. He has six sacks on the season and a 77.3 grade from PFF.
LB Blake Martinez
In 2017 Martinez led the NFL in tackles and he is on pace to do so again in 2019. He comfortably leads the league with 76 tackles while tacking on a sack and a forced fumble. Last week against the Raiders he piled up a whopping 16 tackles.
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KEY MATCHUPS
Matt Moore vs. Packers’ defense
Moore was out of the league in 2018, with his last start coming in 2017. The 12-year journeyman QB has been a serviceable backup and has had a bit of success as a full-time starter. He filled in admirably last week for Mahomes, not committing any turnovers and throwing a 57-yard touchdown pass to Hill.
Now with a full week of game planning and practice reps with the starters, Moore will have the opportunity to make more plays and not play so vanilla. He’ll need to stay within the game plan, trust his coaches and playmakers and be smart with the football.
Chiefs’ front seven vs. Packers’ offensive line
The Chiefs’ defense looked like a completely rejuvenated unit last week, holding the Broncos under 100 yards rushing and sacking quarterback Joe Flacco nine times. The front seven played with an aggression that we haven’t seen in a very long time.
It will need a similar performance this week against a very good Packers offense. It must continue to play downhill, swarm quickly to the ball carrier and throw Rodgers off his spot. Green Bay has a very solid offensive line and has surely taken note of the new energy of the Chiefs’ front seven.
WR Tyreek Hill vs. CB Jaire Alexander
The Chiefs offense received an instant upgrade when Hill returned in Week 6 from a collarbone injury. He has eight catches for 154 yards and three touchdowns. K.C. will lean on him even more while Mahomes is out, perhaps even putting him in the backfield as a running back more often.
Hill will likely see plenty of matchups against Alexander, who is quickly becoming one of the best shutdown cornerbacks in the NFL. The second-year player leads the NFL in pass breakups with six.
CB Bashaud Breeland vs. Packers’ WRs
Breeland has been in a rut the last few weeks, committing tons of penalties and allowing too many completions. This week he’ll be facing Scantling, who we highlighted earlier, and possibly one of the best receivers in the league in Devante Adams (who’s dealing with a turf toe injury).
With Rodgers at QB, there is very little room for error for cornerbacks. We’ve seen Breeland play well in the first quarter of the season, so we know he’s capable. Perhaps he will be extra motivated to play against his former team and will know some of its tendencies.
OVERVIEW
Considering all the injuries they are dealing with and the firm grasp they hold on the AFC West, this isn’t a huge game for the Chiefs. Still, they’ll want to play well and establish a groove with Moore at QB. The defense also needs to continue to jell and not get back to its old ways.
If the Chiefs are a mess and get blown out, it could have a negative impact on the next few weeks. It will be on Reid and the other Chiefs coaches to keep them sharp and disciplined.
