The Kansas City Chiefs will play their first of five prime-time games this season as the host they Indianapolis Colts on Sunday night in Week 5.
The Chiefs are coming off of their toughest challenge yet against the Detroit Lions. The performance by K.C. was sloppy, with three turnovers and making multiple special teams errors. Through it all, however, the Chiefs stayed tough and pulled out a victory thanks to a masterful final scoring drive led by quarterback Patrick Mahomes.
The Colts enter this contest as a mixed bag at 2-2. They’re coming off a disappointing 31-24 home loss to the Oakland Raiders but were missing several key starters. Indianapolis should be refocused this week and will be battling hard to get a leg up in the AFC South, in which every team is 2-2.
Let’s dive into this matchup and see what it will take for a Chiefs victory.
CHIEFS-COLTS HISTORY
The Colts lead the all-time series over the Chiefs, 16-10. That includes five postseason games, most of which have ended in heartbreaking fashion for the Chiefs. They finally broke through last season, however, for their first home playoff win in 25 years.
The K.C. defense was surprisingly stout in this game, surrendering just 13 points. It was in the face of quarterback Andrew Luck all game, forcing three sacks and several three-and-outs.
Mahomes didn’t throw a touchdown pass but rushed for one and made several key throws. Running back Damien Williams stole the show, racking up 154 total yards and a touchdown.
COLTS’ KEY ADDITIONS
OLB Justin Houston
WR Devin Funchess
CB Rock Ya-Sin
COLTS’ KEY SUBTRACTIONS
QB Andrew Luck
WR Dontrelle Inman
S J.J. Wilcox
DL Al Woods
WR Ryan Grant
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COLTS’ COACHING/SCHEMES
Frank Reich is in his second season as head coach. This is his second stint with the team; he was an assistant for the Colts from 2008-2011. He also spent four seasons as an offensive coordinator for the Los Angeles Chargers and Philadelphia Eagles.
Former Chiefs assistant coach Nick Sirianni is the offensive coordinator for the Colts, but Reich calls the plays. Together, they run one of the most diverse offenses in the NFL, featuring multiple sets and personnel groupings.
One staple of their offense is two-TE sets, featuring Jack Doyle and Eric Ebron, who line up all over the field. Reich also lines up his running backs all over, especially Nyheim Hines, who caught 63 passes in 2018 and is second on the team in receptions this season.
The Colts like to establish a rhythm by spreading the field horizontally and hitting quick, short passes in a West Coast-like scheme. Once they have established that, they’ll take their shots downfield. Indy isn’t shabby at running the football either, ranking seventh in the NFL in rushing offense.
The Colts’ rushing attack doesn’t have a specific identity; they use both man and zone blocking schemes.
Like most other teams in today’s NFL, the Colts run out of shotgun frequently and use run-pass options. Marlon Mack is the workhorse back, while Jordan Wilkins and Hines serve as a change of pace. They run behind an excellent offensive line led by rookie All-Pro guard Quenton Nelson.
Defensive scheme
Matt Eberflus is in his second season as defensive coordinator after spending seven seasons with the Dallas Cowboys as linebackers coach and passing game coordinator. Eberflus switched the Colts from a 3-4 to a 4-3 Tampa 2 scheme last season. The Colts rank right in the middle of the league in total defense at No. 16.
Their run defense has struggled a bit, giving up the eighth-most rushing yards per game. Last week against Oakland they gave up 188 yards on the ground.
The Colts have a lot of talented players in their front seven and could get things turned around quickly. Back in the secondary, Indy ranks 13th in the league against the pass, giving up 230.5 passing yards per game.
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KEY PLAYERS
QB Jacoby Brissett
Brissett was thrust into the starting role after the shocking retirement of Andrew Luck during the preseason. In his third season with the Colts, Brissett has a good grasp on the offense and plenty of athleticism to make plays. He’s off to a good start in 2019, quietly tied for the league lead in touchdown passes with 10.
Brissett is completing 65.2 percent of his passes and has thrown just two interceptions. He is also a threat with his legs, ranking second on the Colts in rushing attempts. Indy showed faith in Brissett by giving him a two-year, $30 million contract extension.
RB Marlon Mack
Mack had a breakout season in 2018 and would have been a 1,000-yard rusher had he not missed four games with a number of injuries. He has the speed to spare and runs with good balance.
Mack is off to a good start in 2019, rushing for the fifth-most yards in the league. His only downside is that he is a two-down back who doesn’t make much impact in the receiving game.
WR T.Y. Hilton
Hilton is one of the best, if not one of the most underrated, receivers in the NFL. He went over 1,000 yards for the fifth time in his career in 2018 and is still one of the best deep threats around. When the Colts need a big play or a key first down, Hilton is the go-to guy.
TE Jack Doyle
After an injury-riddled 2018, Doyle is back to full strength. He is a good blocker as well as a good receiver, leading the Colts in yards per reception. At 6 feet 6 and 262 pounds, Doyle is a matchup nightmare who opens things up for other Colts receivers.
LB Darius Leonard
Last season as a rookie, Leonard led the NFL in tackles with 163 despite missing nearly two whole games. He also racked up seven sacks, four forced fumbles and two interceptions, earning him first-team All-Pro honors. He’s off to another great start in 2019 but has already missed nearly two full games due to injury.
CB Kenny Moore
Moore quietly had an excellent 2018 season, recording 77 tackles and three interceptions. The Colts took a flier on Moore as an undrafted free agent in 2017, and he has made huge strides in a short amount of time. He was rewarded with a four-year, $36 million extension, making him the highest-paid slot cornerback in the NFL.
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KEY MATCHUPS
TE Travis Kelce vs. Colts secondary
Perhaps the biggest weakness the Colts have on defense is covering tight ends. Last season they surrendered the most yardage and touchdowns to tight ends. Kelce, meanwhile, had one of the greatest seasons of all time by a tight end in 2018 and is having very similar success so far in 2019.
The Colts’ Tampa 2 scheme could limit big plays down the field, but Kelce should be able to feast underneath. It will be interesting to see if the Colts stick to their guns or try something new to try to contain Kelce. In last season’s playoff game, he caught seven passes for 108 yards.
DT Chris Jones vs. LG Quenton Nelson
These two should lineup across from each other often on Sunday, and it will be a battle of elites. Jones was a one-man wrecking crew last week against a very good Lions offensive line. The Chiefs will need a similar performance from Jones against Nelson and the Colts.
Nelson is the second-highest-graded guard by Pro Football Focus, and he made PFF’s Week 4 NFL Team of the Week. He is a huge factor in the success of Indy’s running game and of the effectiveness of Brissett. Jones could go a long way in his quest for a long-term contract with a big performance against Nelson.
WR Sammy Watkins vs. Colts secondary
After a huge Week 1 in which he recorded 198 receiving yards and three touchdowns, Watkins has a combined 167 receiving yards and no TDs in his last three games. It’s not fair to expect him to get close to 200 yards every week, but his highest yardage total since then has been 64.
As a No. 1 receiver with Tyreek Hill out, Watkins needs to make more of an impact than he has the last three weeks. He was held to just three receptions last week and he lost a fumble. He’ll be facing a banged-up Colts secondary, giving him the opportunity to get back on track.
RT Mitchell Schwartz vs. OLB Justin Houston
Houston will make his return to Arrowhead Stadium after eight seasons with the Chiefs. So far for the Colts, he has 11 tackles, three quarterback hits, and one sack. He’ll surely be extra pumped and motivated to play his former team.
He should find himself lining up across from Schwartz plenty. Schwartz is one of, if not the best right tackle in the league, but he is coming off one of his worst games in a long time against Detroit.
Some people have speculated that Schwartz could be battling through an injury, but we’ll never know unless he has to be dragged off the field. There’s no question the Chiefs offense runs smoother when Schwartz is at the top of his game.
OVERVIEW
The Colts are a good team, but they’re also banged up. If they can get some key players back from injury they will give the Chiefs all they can handle. Brissett is an underrated quarterback and he has one of the better running games to work with.
The Chiefs will obviously have a great advantage playing at home in prime time. Their offense will be looking to put a renewed emphasis on ball security, and their defense will look to tighten up against the run. A victory would give them their third straight 5-0 start to a season.
