Each week of the regular season I am going to dive into the Chiefs matchup, making detailed projections for what each skill-position player will do in that week’s game. For each projection I’ll give a brief explanation of where the projection came from, and why I anticipate the game playing out in a certain way.
If you play fantasy football, in all likelihood the Chiefs offensive players factor in — whether you have them on your team or your opponent does. Since this is the best offense in the NFL, what the Chiefs players do in a given week makes an impact on every fantasy league in existence.
Projections
When I make projections for the NFL season to come, I look at it from a season-long vantage point, and from an overall team perspective. Then each player gets broken down to fit within that overall team’s projected statistics.
Weekly projections should fit within that overall season-long projection, but since every week’s projection is dependent on the defense and specific matchups, we will just focus here on a week at a time. Without further ado, here are my projections for Week 1, when the Chiefs face the Raiders in Oakland.
Patrick Mahomes
Projection: 31 – 40 for 420 yards and 4 touchdowns, 1 rush for 2 yards (30.66 fantasy points)
Due to Mahomes’ sprained ankle, I think Reid will design a game plan that features quick passing strikes to get the ball out of his QB’s hands faster. You have to believe Reid hated seeing Mahomes get hit as much as the fans did, so he should do what he can to protect him this week.
I clearly don’t see that hampering his stats. Even without Tyreek Hill this week, Mahomes has a plethora of weapons to get the ball to quickly. I think Reid will choose some new plays that will result in long touchdowns and get the offense rolling. Still, since Oakland looks much improved on offense, I think this one may be a shootout.
Damien Williams
Projection: 7 carries for 28 yards, 6 receptions for 37 yards (12.5 PPR fantasy points)
Williams did lose a significant chunk of carries to McCoy in week 1 – and McCoy excelled. Another weapon on offense is great news for the Chiefs, but not good for Williams from a fantasy perspective. He still made a great impact in the passing game but looked poor as a runner, so we may see McCoy take more of the early-down work and get more rushes, while Williams takes almost all of the passing work.
LeSean McCoy
Projection: 12 carries for 63 yards and 1 touchdown, 1 reception for 8 yards (14.1 PPR fantasy points)
McCoy looked dynamic in the run game, certainly appearing to still have good vision and plenty of speed. Reid should look to find ways to keep the defense off-balance, mixing in different types of runs for McCoy. I think McCoy will bust a long run in this game and will get into the end zone.
While the Raiders did a good job slowing the running game of the Broncos, much of that had to do with them not having to respect Flacco and the passing game all that much. Because they will be keyed to the pass in this game, Burfict and the other linebackers should have a very difficult time also stopping the run.
Continue…
Sammy Watkins
Projection: 7 receptions (on 10 targets) for 130 yards and 1 touchdown (26 PPR fantasy points)
Watkins will take over WR1 duties this week with Tyreek Hill out of the lineup. We saw him succeed in week 1 in that role, even when Hill was not on the field. It is unclear whether Gareon Conley, the top cornerback for the Raiders, will be on the field on Sunday after suffering a neck injury against the Broncos. If not, he would face some combination of Daryl Worley and Trayvon Mullen, the Raiders’ second-round pick out of Clemson. Watkins should be able to beat either with consistency, so I look for him to have another big game.
Mecole Hardman
Projection: 6 receptions (on 9 targets) for 90 yards and 1 touchdown, 2 rushes for 28 yards (23.8 PPR fantasy points)
With Hill out of the lineup, Hardman should be almost a full-time player in Week 2. He is not close to Hill yet as a player, but he does bring dynamic speed, which Reid knows how to use. I anticipate we will see him get into the end zone for the first time as a Chief this week, and I think he will make several exciting plays down the field against a secondary that will be keyed on Watkins and Kelce.
Demarcus Robinson
Projection: 3 receptions (on 4 targets) for 50 yards (8 PPR fantasy points)
Robinson should also be on the field a lot in this game, and I have him down for 4 targets. He is a very capable receiver but his opportunities are just limited in this offense since he’s surrounded by so many great playmakers.
Travis Kelce
Projection: 8 receptions (on 10 targets) for 105 yards and 2 touchdowns (30.5 PPR fantasy points)
Kelce will often be matched up with the linebackers of the Raiders. Tahir Whitehead and Vontaze Burfict have nice elements to their game, but they are not capable of handling Kelce. In addition, rookie safety Johnathan Abram had a nice game against the Broncos and might have been used to defend Kelce at times, but he was lost to a torn rotator cuff.
Mahomes will make it up to Kelce in Week 2 after he threw an easy touchdown over Kelce’s head in Week 1; I see Kelce scoring two touchdowns in this one.
Score Prediction
Based on the above information and what I anticipate on the Raiders side of the ball, I predict the final score to be:
41 – 28, Chiefs over Raiders
Kevin Scott is a fantasy football veteran who plays in over 30 leagues per year. Beyond Chiefs Wire, he also writes for 4for4, FFToday, and Fansided. You can follow him on Twitter @kevinscottff.
Go back…
