Each week of the regular season I am going to dive into the Chiefs matchup, making detailed projections for what each skill-position player will do in that week’s game. For each projection I’ll give a brief explanation of where the projection came from, and why I anticipate the game playing out in a certain way.
If you play fantasy football, in all likelihood the Chiefs offensive players factor in — whether you have them on your team or your opponent does. Since this is the best offense in the NFL, what the Chiefs players do in a given week makes an impact on every fantasy league in existence.
Projections
When I make projections for the NFL season to come, I look at it from a season-long vantage point, and from an overall team perspective. Then each player gets broken down to fit within that overall team’s projected statistics.
Weekly projections should fit within that overall season-long projection, but since every week’s projection is dependent on the defense and specific matchups, we will just focus here on a week at a time. Without further ado, here are my projections for Week 1, when the Chiefs face the Jaguars in Jacksonville.
Patrick Mahomes
Projection: 26 – 37 for 344 yards and 3 touchdowns, 4 rushes for 13 yards (27.06 fantasy points)
These projections are right in line for what I have Mahomes averaging each week throughout the season. I think this game will be unique in that Jalen Ramsey will be locked onto Tyreek Hill for the majority of snaps, so Mahomes is likely to target his other weapons more than normal. That shouldn’t stop him from being successful, and the Jaguars defense has fallen off from when it was dominant a couple seasons ago.
Mahomes will find Kelce early and often, and will also send targets to virtually every other player on the offense as he continues to gain expertise in reading the defense and finding the open man. I believe this game will be a good early challenge, but Jacksonville usually plays a pretty straightforward defense without a lot of trickery, so I envision Mahomes having a very clear path to a great day.
Damien Williams
Projection: 10 carries for 40 yards and 1 touchdown, 4 receptions for 28 yards (16.8 PPR fantasy points)
With the addition of LeSean McCoy this past weekend, Williams is likely to lose some of his touch volumes. I still envision him as the starter, but he is likely to share more carries with McCoy than he would have with Darwin Thompson. So while I had Williams projected for around 17 touches per game between carries and receptions, that has come down to around 13 touches.
Jacksonville is tough to run against typically, but with the way the Chiefs can spread defenses out with their speed, they will find a way to be successful on the ground. I think Williams gets in the end zone this week and is effective both on the ground and through the air.
LeSean McCoy
Projection: 7 carries for 27 yards, 3 receptions for 33 yards and 1 touchdown (15 PPR fantasy points)
I think McCoy will be substituted in for Williams regularly so that they form close to an even timeshare. However, as you see in my projections, there is plenty of meat on the bone for both of them to be successful. Of course, this is just a guess since we have so little to go on, but it’s my best guess.
Continue…
Tyreek Hill
Projection: 4 receptions (on 6 targets) for 58 yards, 2 rushes for 28 yards (12.6 PPR fantasy points)
I believe Hill will finish this season as a top-three fantasy wide receiver. However, he has drawn one of the toughest matchups in the league in Week 1, cornerback Jalen Ramsey. According to Jaguars defensive coordinator John Wash, Ramsey will shadow Hill all game, which should at the least limit Hill’s opportunity.
Hill will still get the better of Ramsey on a couple plays but will finish with what is a modest stat line for such a talented player.
Sammy Watkins
Projection: 7 receptions (on 10 targets) for 108 yards and 1 touchdown (23.8 PPR fantasy points)
Much of the passing game volume that doesn’t go to Hill will go to Sammy Watkins. Watkins seems poised for his best season yet, as he is healthy, knows the offense, and is playing with a superstar QB. I think his breakout season will get off to a great start in Jacksonville.
Although the Jaguars’ second cornerback AJ Bouye is also an excellent player, I do not envision Watkins being shadowed, which should enable Mahomes to find him early and often.
Mecole Hardman
Projection: 2 receptions (on 3 targets) for 30 yards, 1 rush for 18 yards (6.8 PPR fantasy points)
More than likely Hardman is going to be used as a quasi-gadget player early this season. I think he will get an end around each game or some similar play. I also anticipate he will get a few targets during the game when he is running routes as a receiver, which should be when the Chiefs are in 4-wide sets, or when the coaches have Hardman in over Robinson in select situations.
Travis Kelce
Projection: 6 receptions (on 10 targets) for 77 yards and 1 touchdown (19.7 PPR fantasy points)
I project Kelce to tie with Watkins for the most targets and to put up a very nice stat line to start out the season. Kelce will serve as the primary target for Mahomes on a decent percentage of his drop-backs, and his reliability makes him invaluable to the passing attack. I think he will get in the end zone against the Jags and give us the first of many 2019 touchdown dances.
While I did not project any stats for Darwin Thompson, Demarcus Robinson, or any of the back up tight ends, certainly any of them is capable of getting into the box score. The projections you’ll find here are those most likely to play a central role in the game plan against the Jaguars.
Score Prediction
Based on the above information and the scouting I’ve done on the Jaguars side of the ball, I will predict the final score to be:
34 – 24, Chiefs over Jaguars
Kevin Scott is a fantasy football veteran who plays in over 30 leagues per year. Beyond Chiefs Wire, he also writes for 4for4, FFToday, and Fansided. You can follow him on Twitter @kevinscottff.
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