July 23--When he was managing the Expos in the early 1970s, Gene Mauch explained how losing streaks work in baseball.
"Losing streaks are funny," he said. "If you lose at the beginning, you are off to a bad start. If you lose in the middle of the season, you're in a slump. If you lose at the end, you're choking."
Mauch, of course, knows about losing streaks. He was at the helm of the Phillies in 1964 when they pulled off one of the great chokes in sports history, losing 10 straight in late September and blowing a 6 1/2 game lead over the Cardinals in their final 12 games.
We don't know which teams will choke down the stretch in 2015, but we do know it's time for the Cubs to forget about the Cardinals and start focusing on the National League wild-card chase.
They're nine games behind St. Louis in the NL Central with a little more than two months left, and rank 24th in runs and 25th in slugging percentage. If the Cubs can make it into October, the pitching -- not Kyle Schwarber -- will have to carry them.
The Cardinals, meanwhile, show no signs of falling apart.
Wednesday night's late comeback win against the White Sox was a perfect reminder as to why the Cardinals are the best team in baseball, as if Chicago needed another reminder after Pedro Strop's ninth-inning implosion on July 8 at Wrigley Field. The Cards don't have the individual pieces that scream, "We're a great team," but they quietly know how to do whatever is necessary to win.
So it's wild card or bust for the Cubs, who are 12-13 since June 23 and play their next ten games against the Phillies, Rockies and Brewers, three bad teams with nothing to lose.
Here are the teams they'll probably have to beat out to get into the postseason for the first time since 2008:
Giants: The Cubs lead the Giants by half a game for the second wild-card spot and the Giants have won eight of their last nine, making them the favorite in this field. Of course, the Giants still have their sights on the NL West title, trailing the Dodgers by only 2 1/2. The return of Matt Cain from a strained flexor injury bolsters the rotation, and the veteran allowed one run over six innings in a 7-1 win over the Padres on Wednesday in his fourth start. But they're still trying to get Jake Peavy (1-4, 4.94 ERA) on track, and Tim Lincecum remains out indefinitely with a hip injury. Even so, they're the world champs and play before sellout crowds every night, which makes them tough to beat. The Cubs play the Giants seven more times: Aug. 6-9 at Wrigley and Aug. 25-27 at AT Park.
Mets: On Wednesday the Mets were seemingly on the verge of pulling to within one game of the Nationals in the NL East, before giving up three runs in the eighth inning in a 4-3 loss to the Nats at Nationals Park. "It's a huge loss," manager Terry Collins said afterwards, taking all the blame. How bad was it? A New York Post headline read: "Soul-crushing loss will come back to haunt Mets." (The ghost of Ron Santo endorses that headline.) The Mets are 2 1/2 games behind the Cubs for the second wild-card spot, even though it seems like they never get hot. Like the Cubs, they count on their excellent pitching and are hoping the offense eventually comes around. If it comes down to the Cubs edging the Mets for the second wild-card spot, the Cubs can look at their perfect 7-0 record against New York as the deciding factor. The season series is over.
Pirates: The Bucs are three games ahead of the Cubs for the first wild-card spot, which only matters for homefield advantage if they meet in October. In other words, it doesn't matter if they finish one game or 10 games ahead of the Cubs: It would still be a one-game playoff at PNC Park. But since Pittsburgh is 32-16 at home, it would be a big disadvantage for the Cubs to play them at PNC instead of at Wrigley Field. After pulling to within a couple games of the Cardinals at the All-Star break with two comeback wins against them, the Pirates have gone 1-5 against the Brewers and Royals in the first week of the second half, quickly dropping to six games back and letting the Cubs creep closer. They're second in the majors in pitching (2.99 ERA) but only 19th in runs (375), and usually aren't the kind of team that makes major deadline deals. The Cubs are 6-4 against the Pirates, but haven't played them since May 17, before the Bucs started to rebound from a poor start. The Cubs and Pirates play nine more games: a pair of three-game series at PNC Park on Aug. 3-5 and Sept. 15-17; and a three-game series at Wrigley on Sept. 25-27.
Dodgers: While a $230 million payroll should virtually guarantee you a postseason spot, the Dodgers have yet to pull away. They've been in first place for 86 days, but are only 2 1/2 games ahead of the surging Giants, and would actually be a game behind the Pirates if they were listed in the wild card-standings. Since May 12th, when they were 22-10, the Dodgers have only played .500 ball (32-32), despite having a one-two punch of Clayton Kershaw and Zach Greinke in their rotation. Greinke starts Friday against the Mets at Citi Field, taking a consecutive scoreless innings streak of 43.2 innings into the start. It's the fourth longest scoreless innings streak since the expansion era, and within striking distance of Orel Hershiser's record of 59 straight scoreless innings. The Cubs and Dodgers split a four-game series at Wrigley in June after the Cubs took the first two games. They have one three-game series remaining: Aug. 28-30 at Dodger Stadium.
Nationals: The runaway train that was supposed to be the Nationals is as slow as the Blue Line to O'Hare Airport during rush hour. Injuries and underachieving performances have left them with a slim lead over the Mets, who continue to hang in the race in spite of themselves. The Nats' record is only a half game better than the Cubs' in spite of a rotation of Max Scherzer, Jordan Zimmerman, Doug Fister, Gio Gonzalez and Stephen Strasburg, who currently is on the disabled list. It's unimaginable to think they could miss the postseason, but the Nats are suddenly vulnerable. The Cubs are 4-3 against the Nationals. The season series is over.
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