Market mover Falcon Eight will bid to defy a form trend in Friday’s tote+ Chester Cup Handicap.
Just one winner in the past 20 years has scored at Listed or Group level – and Dermot Weld's raider has one of those on his record.
Frankie Dettori's mount has been backed in to odds of around 15-2, with only the Hughie Morrison-trained Not So Sleepy ahead of him in the betting.
In the last 15 years there has only been one winning favourite, but 13 renewals have gone to horses priced at 16-1 or shorter.
With a maximum field of 17 facing the starter, including five from the Mark Johnston yard, the 2m2½f trip requires plenty of stamina.
Only one horse has won on their first try at 2m or further since 1989, while the past 20 winners all competed on turf last time out.
Had he lined up, ante-post favourite Almighwar would not have ticked the box for experience, as every winner since 1990 had seven or more career runs.
A guide to the Chester Cup field...
1. 45/34- Falcon Eight (D K Weld/Frankie Dettori) 15-2
Listed race scorer under Dettori who bids to defy an absence of 314 days for the same jockey. Wore a first-time visor when last seen, which is retained. Smart on his day and has to be respected, albeit vulnerable to a lower weighted rival.
2. 76-626 Who Dares Wins (Alan King/Tom Marquand) 14-1
Admirable performer on the Flat and over jumps, who gave Tom Marquand his first Royal Ascot winner.
Fourth, third and second in the last three renewals, the nine-year-old has come down the ratings slightly, while competing on the all-weather.
Should run his usual game race.
3. /2432- The Grand Visir (Ian Williams/Richard Kingscote) 16-1
The 2019 Ascot Stakes winner and he thrives at the royal meeting – just behind Who Dares Wins at level weights last year. Has not raced around Chester before and there might not be enough emphasis on stamina.
4. 852-13 Themaxwecan (Mark Johnston/Ben Curtis) 20-1
Won a good pot at Musselburgh on his return and small field subsequently wouldn't have been ideal. Chance diminishes as further rain falls.
5. -15336 Lucky Deal (Mark Johnston/Andrew Breslin (5) 28-1
Kept busy in recent months with two all-weather wins to his name. Has found life tougher off higher marks and his rider's claim did not help him figure last time.
6. 252/21 Rare Groove (Jedd O'Keeffe/PJ McDonald) 12-1
Developing into a useful stayer, coming here after a good win at Newcastle. PJ McDonald will be looking to slot in from a wide draw and has a chance from a career high mark.
7. 74/14- Not So Sleepy (Hughie Morrison/Graham Lee) 6-1
Loves to bowl along at the head of affairs over jumps or on the Flat. A surprise Listed winner at the May Festival in the 2015 Dee Stakes, he has to get across from stall 13. Others preferred for win purposes.
8. 22-112 Cardano (Ian Williams/Ryan Moore) 10-1
Stable has won this before and one of their three runners. This contender looks the number one hope with Ryan Moore booked. Progressive and trip looks sure to suit with back form on softer going.
9. 41600- Reshoun (Ian Williams/Andrea Atzeni) 20-1
Recorded a career best when winning at Newbury last summer but not in the same mood since. A tough ask on paper.
10. 6-3812 Hochfeld (Mark Johnston/Connor Beasley) 11-1
Stall two is ideal for the strong stayer, who should be able to get a good position behind the leaders. Clearly thriving at present off a mark which remains workable.
11. 1112-6 Trumpet Man (Mark Johnston/Franny Norton) 11-1
The son of Golden Horn landed a hat-trick last year. Mark shot up as a result and he was a one-paced sixth on his comeback. Extra yardage should see him in a better light.
12. 4-2314 Nate The Great (Andrew Balding/David Probert) 11-1
Another runner from Themaxwecan race, drawn in seven. Did not appear to stay the 2m 5f when well beaten behind Who Dares Wins and The Grand Visir. Received more than a stone when defeating the first-named of that pair so has a bit to find with that rival – and does seem to lack a bit of tactical pace.
13. 23160- Future Investment (Ralph Beckett/Hector Crouch) 10-1
Career best when getting up late to land staying handicap last summer. Midfield in the Cesarewitch on his final run. Tends to benefit from an outing to start his season, but still unexposed.
14. 2060-0 Glencadam Glory (Tim Easterby/Jason Hart) 20-1
Close second in the Ebor on soft off a 4lb higher mark. Could not reproduce that bold effort in outings since. Interesting outsider if back on song.
15. 14-403 Rochester House (Mark Johnston/Joe Fanning) 20-1
Back to near his best when third at Newbury three weeks ago. Capable of making a bold bid.
16. 064/0- Blakeney Point (Donald McCain/Ella McCain (5)
Hails from a stable with success in the race. Has been hurdling to a decent standard. No run on the Flat for 261 days. Rider's claim should come in handy and looks on a good mark. Each-way potential.
17. 5190-7 Coeur De Lion (Alan King/Thor Hammer Hansen (3)
Won and finished second in the Plate on both his previous visits. Good handicapper and cheekpieces replace a visor from his most recent triumph on the Flat.
VERDICT : Outsiders Glencadam Glory and Blakeney Point have each-way claims, along with Hochfeld. However improving stayer Cardano can take the spoils for Ian Williams and Ryan Moore. Stall one should enable him to get a good position and further improvement could be forthcoming over this longer trip.
