The key to successful punting is to go against the crowd. Everyone else is looking forward to the Cheltenham Festival in 11 days' time, so After-Timer is looking back, trying to figure out what happened in the last 10 runnings of the meeting's best-known handicap, the County Hurdle.
For years, this has been the Festival's 'Getting Out Stakes', the very last race of the betting jamboree and the last chance for losing punters to blast their way out of trouble — or, more likely, deeper into the hole. But this year, Cheltenham's management have decided to make it the second race on the last day, which seems a mistake. Then again, change always seems like a mistake in racing. But the need to move it was by no means clear when it was a great success in its old spot.
Anyway, there's a chance that it may not now be quite the same race. If we accept the general wisdom that, in the absence of rain, Cheltenham's racing surface dries out as the week progresses, then the County Hurdle was always run on the fastest going of the week. That would tend to favour horses at the front of the market, as the form should work out in a handicap hurdle run at a good gallop on decent ground. Now, there might be a bit more juice in the ground and therefore a greater chance of an upset. Any difference will be marginal, but it may be there just the same.
A more significant problem for punters this year is the fact that the best trial for this race, Newbury's totesport Trophy, was lost to the weather this season, depriving us of some major clues. Four of the last 10 County winners ran in that race.
Previously in After-Timer, we've looked at the Cheltenham Gold Cup, the Champion Hurdle and the World Hurdle. Next week, in the last in the series, we'll take on the William Hill Trophy Handicap Chase.
The County Hurdle
2008 Silver Jaro 50-1
As I write, this remains Silver Jaro's only success in his last 18 starts. What do we conclude from this? If you answered: "His victory was a fluke and there was no way of predicting it," well, you're not going to back many 50-1 winners. You don't win a 22-runner handicap hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival by a fluke, you have to be a good horse to do it and the clues were there that Silver Jaro was good enough. Most obviously, he had been a running-on third of 28 in the Pierse Hurdle, Ireland's most competitive handicap hurdle, just two runs before, and that was hardly his only useful piece of form. On the run before that, he had been narrowly beaten in a good-quality non-handicap at Leopardstown's Christmas meeting. Although he clearly had a low strike-rate, that was partly down to the loss of form he suffered at the end of the previous season when with Jonjo O'Neill, for whom he had once been third in a Sandown juvenile hurdle behind the useful pair Pauillac and Junior. Now with Tom Hogan, he had clearly recovered his ability and would not have been such a big price in this but for a disappointing prep run when a beaten favourite at Clonmel just 12 days before. An excuse for that is hard to pinpoint, though Clonmel is sharp, which may not have suited Silver Jaro. But one poor run can always be forgiven and 50-1 was a daft price about a horse that could place in the Pierse. Moreover, Silver Jaro was a five-year-old, an age group that has enjoyed disproportionate success in the County in recent years. On the other hand, outsiders have not generally fared so well. He was just the second winner at bigger than 16-1 since 1973, though there have been 14 other winners at double-figure prices in that time. Form lines tend to work out well in two-mile handicap hurdles run at a good gallop, especially on the good going that usually prevails for the County, so there should be few shocks. Of course, Silver Jaro's backers could always reason that he should never have been 50-1 in the first place. They had reason to be pleased with themselves, though they had at least one lucky break - the favourite, Psycho, was given far too much ground to make up by Paul Carberry and would surely have won with a more judicious ride. Closing all the way to the line, he was beaten three-quarters of a length. Psycho had easily won a Leopardstown handicap hurdle in January and would have done the same thing in February, but for falling at the last flight. His was another expensive defeat for followers of the County Meath trainer Tony Martin, whose reputation for doing well with handicappers means his runners are often overbet. Despite two winners, his Festival runners over the last decade have returned a net loss at starting price.
2007 Pedrobob 12-1
Most County hurdles are five or six years old, so, at nine, Pedrobob was clearly into the veteran stage. But such victories are by no means unprecedented - Barna Boy was nine when he won in 1997, while there have been a couple of eight-year-old winners in recent memory. Those, however, have been the only County winners older than seven since the 13-year-old Approval in 1959. But Pedrobob was very lightly raced for a nine-year-old - this was just his eighth run over hurdles. Moreover, he had pace, having won three bumpers just two years before on ground ranging from good to firm. And he had shown consistent improvement over hurdles, with three wins, a second and two thirds from seven starts. On his most recent starts, he had hacked up in a non-handicap at Leopardstown over Christmas before running third in Newbury's totesport Trophy, an excellent trial for the County. As in Silver Jaro's year, there was a more fancied contender who was regarded as unlucky by some, but backers of Ouninpohja have only themselves to blame. Classy but quirky, this horse had won one of his previous 10 races but been second seven times. There was every chance that he would again refuse to go through with his effort and so it proved, yet he was less than half the price of Pedrobob at 11-2. Five-year-olds were represented in the frame by 100-1 shot Premier Dane but, from the same age group, Osana was very disappointing, fading into 10th at 11-2, an effort that appears still more disappointing in light of his second place in the Champion Hurdle a year later. But Osana was a front-runner who again tried to make all here and did well, only being collared at the final flight. Front-runners have a poor record in the County, which is usually won by a hold-up horse. According to Paul Jones's Festival Betting Guide, the last horse to make all in the County was Floyd in 1985. In the last decade, only Sir Talbot has raced prominently throughout. Incredibly, the 3-1 favourite was a horse who had not raced over hurdles since October. Fair Along had been turned into a novice chaser since then and ran second in the Arkle just three days before this. He had had a very hard race that day and the chances of him being able to show his best form in these circumstances were remote. It's difficult to imagine why connections would want to run him again in these circumstances but it is still harder to understand why he proved so popular with punters. Fair Along trailed home in 25th.
2006 Desert Quest 4-1j
One of the most emphatic and predictable winners of the County Hurdle, Desert Quest had won four of his previous six races. In the other two, he unseated and was third of 15 in a competitive handicap at Windsor, when the softish going would not have suited. A confirmed fast ground horse, he had just a 4lb penalty for beating 13 rivals in a hot race at Newbury two weeks before. Plus he had shown an ability to cope with Cheltenham, where he had been a close second to the useful Motorway in a maiden hurdle on his only previous visit. Things have gone wrong for Desert Quest since, but he was not to be opposed on this day and 4-1 was surprisingly generous. The other joint-favourite was Studmaster, who had some fast-ground form from two years before but whose two recent wins had both been on a yielding surface. He looked uneasy on this surface which, though officially good, may well have been faster. It said a lot that the next in the betting was Pirate Flagship, a stablemate of the winner, who had no hope of turning round the form of the Newbury race, in which he had been second.
2005 Fontanesi 16-1
Victory for this one was so unexpected, we are told, that the owner (one David Johnson) was making tracks towards his helicopter as the race started. I'm pretty sure that's not how I'd behave if I had a 16-1 shot running at the Festival but each to their own. On recent form, Johnson's lack of interest was understandable - Fontanesi had been beaten by at least 17 lengths on each of his last eight outings and had been stuffed on all three previous visits to Cheltenham. Then again, he had been a very useful novice hurdler the previous year, winning four times from five starts in April and May 2004, following a never-sighted effort in the Royal & SunAlliance Novice Hurdle. After that run of success, he was switched into handicaps and started the losing streak that was only ended in the County. The effect of those defeats was that he had dropped 16lb in the ratings by the time of this race, which must have helped (though he only got the benefit of 11lb, since he was 5lb out of the handicap), and another clue was that he started a shorter price for this than in five of the races in which he was beaten, in races of much lesser quality. There are very few trainers who win major handicaps with horses that have such a profile but Martin Pipe could certainly do it, as punters were surely aware. To judge by the betting, Fontanesi was just his third-string in the race but Pipe's yard was, at this point, one of very few with the strength in depth to win major races with a backup. Both of Pipe's more fancied runners raced prominently, which has usually been a major disadvantage in this race, and both were well beaten. Beechcourt, the easy winner of a Leopardstown handicap hurdle the previous month, was the 9-2 favourite but his obvious flaw was that all his form was on soft. Fontanesi, by contrast, had plenty of fast-ground form. The eventual runner-up, Stance (11-1), had also proved his ability to act on good. Like Fontanesi, he had run up a sequence the previous spring. He had then been kept away from handicap hurdles until the weights for this were set, at which point he hacked up at Newbury, 13 days before the County. He would have been a shorter price but for then taking part in the Imperial Cup six days before the County, in which he failed to act on softish ground. But for that outing, he may have won this.
2004 Sporazene 7-1j
The first of two winners in three years for trainer Paul Nicholls, Sporazene was a five-year-old, an age group which has enjoyed disproportionate success in this. A classy novice the previous season, he had won a Grade One at Punchestown in May, beating Spectroscope, the Triumph Hurdle winner. He had then been narrowly beaten in a Listed handicap at Newbury, third in the Christmas Hurdle and eighth in the totesport Trophy back at Newbury. On the face of it, that was disappointing, but he was only beaten four lengths in what was a classy renewal of a highly competitive race. His task here was made easier by the presence among the final declarations of his stablemate Rigmarole, whose high rating meant that 18 of the 23 runners were racing from out of the handicap. Sporazene was one of five who could race off his proper mark, as was the veteran Copeland, who came third. Two of the others finished sixth and seventh. Rigmarole did not even line up, in the end, having been eighth in the Champion Hurdle three days before. That must have been galling to connections of the fast-finishing runner-up Hawadeth, who would have been 13lb better off with the winner if Rigmarole had not been declared. The other joint-favourite was Harchibald, who had been the easy winner of a Leopardstown handicap hurdle the previous month. He finished fifth, having failed to find as much as seemed likely after the last, and probably ran out of stamina. Surprisingly, Adamant Approach was just 8-1, despite having reached the veteran age of 10. He finished seventh but perhaps punters weren't wrong, as, incredibly, he managed to be third two years later at the age of 12 and was third in another handicap at the meeting the year after that.
2003 Spirit Leader 10-1
Quality racemares can sometimes prove remarkably consistent and Spirit Leader was such a horse. Coming into this race, her career over hurdles read: 14 starts, three wins, eight seconds, a third, a fourth and a fifth. Although she was trained in Ireland, her wins included two of the most competitive handicap hurdles in Britain, at Sandown on Tingle Creek day and Newbury's totesport Trophy, her last start before this, for which she was raised 9lb. Her fifth place came under a big weight in the Pierse Hurdle, Ireland's most competitive handicap hurdle. In the circumstances, it is hard to credit the generosity of her starting price. Partly, that was down to a gamble on Mise Rafturai, sent off the 5-1 favourite, who had beaten Spirit Leader at Gowran in October and was now 8lb better in at the weights, due to the mare's subsequent efforts. But that had been Spirit Leader's first run for six months. Mise Rafturai, meanwhile, had not been seen for four months, since running a dismal 13th at Down Royal, and he clearly had questions to answer. Those who backed him may have been guilty of following the evidence of their ears rather than their eyes. He was pulled up. Another odd gamble forced Direct Bearing into 7-1. Trained by Dermot Weld, this one had been second in the previous year's Cesarewitch, but his hurdles form fell a long way short of that level. He hadn't won over obstacles since a maiden event 14 months before and he had been stuffed in two handicap hurdles the previous month. He was entitled to do better on this better ground and in first-time blinkers but should not have been shorter than Spirit Leader. He finished sixth, four places ahead of Never (9-1). The easy winner of a Newbury handicap hurdle at the Hennessy meeting, he had then been a creditable fifth in the Bula but had not been seen for three months when this race came round. As Paul Jones has pointed out, 15 of the last 16 County winners had run in the previous five weeks - for a race like this, it helps to be battle-hardened.
2002 Rooster Booster 8-1
Few horses are value at 8-1 when they haven't won for more than two years, particularly when, at eight years old, they're older than all but two winners of the race in question over the previous 43 years. But Rooster Booster, while failing to hit the bullseye, had kept up a consistently high level of form. The previous year, he'd been placed in the Pierse, the totesport Trophy and the Imperial Cup. This season, he'd peaked in his Festival prep-run by again running second in the totesport Trophy, when given too much to do by his rider. Up 6lb but with a better jockey on board, he found the necessary improvement to land this. Still, punters could hardly be expected to know that he was at the start of a rich vein of form that would make him champion hurdler a year later. Polar Red was the 2-1 favourite, trying to complete the same Imperial Cup/County Hurdle double that stablemate Blowing Wind had pulled off four years before. Winning two such races in less than a week takes a tough horse and Polar Red wasn't up to it. The odds against him being that tough were surely a lot bigger than 2-1, crazily short for almost any horse in any Festival race, never mind a novice in a 21-runner handicap hurdle. Meanwhile, Timber King was an equally daft 4-1, despite not having raced since October. The 9-1 shot Dark Shell had not run for even longer, 11 months, and had never raced outside novice company. Rooster Booster certainly had the strongest claims to being a value proposition of those at single-figure prices.
2000 Master Tern 9-2f
Another five-year-old, Master Tern had won nothing as a novice the previous season but had finally got off the mark two months before this, in a handicap hurdle at Cheltenham. He showed such an improvement that day that the stewards held an inquiry, but distance may have been the key. Having shown decent form over two miles as a novice, Master Tern flopped over longer distances in all his handicap starts before this one. He won again at Kelso next time, in a novice non-handicap, and got into the County on a mark 21lb higher than for his first win. It was officially good to firm but Master Tern had proved as a novice that he could handle fast ground and, with the recent improvement and a win at the course, his chance was clear. The fast going explains Danegold's great effort to be a neck second - he was in the middle of a two-year losing run at this point. Afarad, who had been third in the previous year's Triumph Hurdle, was sent off at 6-1. He had won two non-handicaps from three starts this season but had been a disappointing favourite on his only outing in a handicap, when beaten 15 lengths into sixth of 14 in the Pierse. He was again well beaten in eighth in the County. His stablemate Spokesman started at a bigger price, 10-1, but fared much better in third. He had won his only start in a handicap hurdle this season, comfortably beating Mantles Prince, who went on to win the Pierse with Afarad behind. Spokesman, meanwhile, was third in a non-handicap on Pierse day, beaten 18 lengths, which may have put off some Festival punters but, given the ratings of the horses involved, it was a perfectly fair effort. Dermot Weld had a fancied runner in Moving On Up (9-1) but he had been well beaten in a handicap at Punchestown on his previous start. Possibly punters made allowance for the fact that that was his first start for three months and found their interest piqued by the first-time visor he wore in the County, but he faded into 11th after racing prominently. Racing too prominently may also have been the undoing of Copeland (11-2), who had sound form claims and would be fourth in the race four years later. This time, he faded into 15th.
1999 Sir Talbot 10-1
Another five-year-old, Sir Talbot was in other respects an atypical County winner, in that his most recent outing was as long as three months ago (he is the only one of the last 16 winners not to have raced in the preceding five weeks) and also in that he raced prominently (no County winner has done that since). Still, his form was solid. He raced twice as a novice, hacking up at Huntingdon before being beaten only by City Hall (second in the Triumph on his next start). Sir Talbot won again on his reappearance in this season before failing to cope with soft ground on his handicap debut. He did much better on his next start, when second to Tiutchev in a Cheltenham handicap. Considering Tiutchev was an easy winner of the next month's Lanzarote off an 11lb higher mark, that was a fine effort. It took a leap of faith to get over the recent absence but Sir Talbot had proved he had the quality for this and, as it turned out, he was well ahead of the handicapper, pulling six lengths clear of Decoupage, who was 10 lengths clear of the third. Decoupage had excellent form claims, having been the easy winner of the totesport Trophy the previous month. He had gone up 13lb for that but it may also be that he was not best suited by Cheltenham, where he was again a beaten favourite in the following year's Arkle. His career form figures at Cheltenham were 2423 against 12121211F2 elsewhere. There was some support for Ginger Fox (7-1) after his win in a handicap hurdle at Doncaster the month before but he had been winless in six runs before that and his previous success had also been at Doncaster, raising the obvious possibility that he would not repeat that level of form elsewhere. In any case, he raced prominently in first-time blinkers and weakened into 16th. Premier Generation (9-1) was a novice with excellent form, having won a Grade Two novice race at Kempton the month before, but he was racing off a mark two stones higher than the one from which he had been beaten in a novice handicap three months before. That 9-1 had to be terrible value and he came 18th. There was worse value at 10-1 about Walk On Mix from Noel Meade's yard, racing from 7lb out of the handicap. Although a Group Two winner on the Flat in France, his only hurdles success had been in a maiden event 18 months before. He had had just one run in the year leading up to this race, when beaten 42 lengths in an ordinary non-handicap at Navan. How he came to be 10-1 passeth all understanding. He finished 22nd.
1998 Blowing Wind 15-8f
Blowing Wind never got within 20 lengths of a winner on his first three starts after joining Martin Pipe from France, though there was a lot of promise in his third place in Haydock's Champion Hurdle Trial, in which he finished a length behind former champion Collier Bay and 20 lengths ahead of fourth-placed Relkeel. He had then been an easy, well-backed winner of the Imperial Cup, just five days before this, for which he got a 7lb penalty. He was very likely to prove well handicapped and his chance was obvious, though you had to be brave to take 15-8 in a race like this. In the end, he only had to be ridden out to win by a length and a half. It is an illustration of the lack of strength in depth that the second-favourite was Tidjani (9-1), who, although a decent third in the totesport Trophy, had been beaten in his previous 21 starts back to September 1996. The fourth-favourite, Advocat (12-1) also lacked any recent winning form, having lost all five starts since his maiden victory more than three years before. Still, he had been second in a Leopardstown handicap on his prep run and he was second again here. Legal Right (10-1) was interesting after winning a maiden hurdle and a novice hurdle on his previous two starts, but he faded after racing prominently.
A County Hurdle winner . . .
•is very likely to be five or six years old, with five-year-olds having the edge
•should have shown good recent form, unless it comes from one of the very few yards that can win big handicaps with horses that had seemed out of form
•need not have shown Cheltenham form in the past. Silver Jaro, Pedrobob and Fontanesi had all been stuffed on their previous visits
But hold onto your cash if it . . .
•is likely to make the running or race prominently
•has not run since the new year
•has only shown form on soft going, except (of course) in the unusual event of the County being run on soft
Key trials
The totesportcasino.com Handicap Hurdle, at Newbury 13 days before the County. To be run tomorrow, Saturday 28 February. Desert Quest warmed up for the County by winning this, while Stance won this before running second in the County in Fontanesi's year — a race he might have won, but for flopping in a soft-ground Imperial Cup in between. Four of this year's runners are also in the County Hurdle, though only Procas De Thaix and Wingman are high enough in the weights to have a realistic chance of making the line-up in the Festival race.
The totesport Trophy, at Newbury in February, abandoned this year. A serious loss, as four County winners warmed up with good efforts in this — Spirit Leader won both, Rooster Booster had been second at Newbury, Pedrobob third and Sporazene eighth.
The Pierse Hurdle, at Leopardstown in January, won this year by Penny's Bill. This is the most competitive handicap hurdle run in Ireland and it can usually be assumed that the first half-dozen have run creditably. Spirit Leader was fifth under a big weight before winning the County, while Silver Jaro was third in the Pierse before landing last year's County at 50-1.
The handicapping of Irish runners
The British and Irish handicapping systems are separate and their ratings are not interchangeable. Irish horses running in Britain almost invariably compete from a rating which is a much higher number than their Irish rating but this should not necessarily be read as an indication that they have been raised by a dramatic amount. Irish-based horses have proved very competitive at the Festival in recent years and you should not be put off by the discrepancy between their rating in Britain compared to their domestic rating.
On a broader point, it was interesting to note during this study how often a horse's effort depended on factors other than weight. It is very easy to overstate the importance of a few pounds here or there. If a horse is fit, in form and has conditions to suit, it is likely to run well, regardless of its mark. If it is not fit, is out of form or unsuited by conditions, it is very unlikely to make the frame, whether it has a handy weight or not.
Next week . . . the William Hill Trophy
