The ground could be very soft, or even heavy, at Cheltenham this week, which is not a possibility that punters have needed to factor into their calculations for a decade at least. For some the prospect will summon memories of Festivals long past, when one mud-splattered 33-1 chance after another seemed to walk into the winner’s enclosure. Rain, as a rule, is the bookies’ friend.
It may not come to their rescue in Tuesday’s Champion Hurdle, where Buveur D’Air the hot favourite to retain his crown, has plenty of form on testing ground. Favourites such as Apple’s Jade, in the Mares’ Hurdle the same day, and Samcro, in the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle on Wednesday, have also won on heavy ground, though their current prices are less than appealing.
Friday’s Gold Cup, though, could well turn on the depth of the ground. The field has an intriguing mixture of class, speed and stamina, as the King George winner, Might Bite, lines up against Native River, who took last season’s Welsh National under top weight. A millimetre or two of rain either way could make all the difference.
Definitly Red is another whose chance would improve significantly if the rain persists but the horse that stands out as the value bet at the likely prices is Willie Mullins’s Killultagh Vic.
The nine-year-old has had a stop-start career and will be making only his fourth start over fences but he has shown occasional glimpses of exceptional talent, most famously when he recovered to win a Grade Two at Leopardstown despite coming to a standstill after a terrible mistake at the last.
He was not so lucky at the same obstacle last time out, when Killultagh Vic fell with the Irish Gold Cup seemingly at his mercy. Edwulf, the eventual winner, came from nowhere to take advantage and stopped the clock in a good time as he did so, but Killultagh Vic, who can be backed each-way at 12-1 for the Gold Cup, would have bettered that performance but for his fall.
The market for the Stayers’ Hurdle on Thursday suggests Sam Spinner has not convinced everyone with his rapid rise from handicapping to Grade Ones but his win in the Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot was the best yet and 5-1 is a big price.
Min is among the five-day entries for the Ryanair Chase but will surely leave that race to Un De Sceaux and is a value price at 11-4 to beat Altior in Wednesday’s Champion Chase.
The Festival’s handicaps are just as they should be: bursting with possibilities and ripe for an upset. It would not be Cheltenham without a few dabbles at a big price, and A Great View (20‑1, Pertemps Final), Bouvreuil (20-1, Brown Advisory Plate) and The King Of May (16-1, Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle) have fair claims at their odds.
