The transfer window is like marmite; either you love it, or you hate it. Whichever position you take, if you’re a Chelsea supporter, you would never expect it to be dull.
Chelsea seems to have been slow off the mark with rivals making signings early, but that has not stopped the Blues being the talking point where transfers are concerned. This is in part due to the arrival of new owners, the Boehly Consortium, who are expected to bung a lot of cash into the transfer ‘war chest’ as part of their golden handshake with the club and its supporters.
There is a strong case to be made that Chelsea needs to be very active this transfer window, not least to replace the players that are gone or going and to allow Thomas Tuchel to progress his plan to make Chelsea into a team of his design.
READ MORE: Barcelona secure £177.6m windfall to concern Chelsea in Raphinha transfer battle
Many supporters would agree that Chelsea’s transfer policy has been hit and miss for years and more frugal than some would have you believe; the ‘one in and one out’ policy Marina Granovskaia implemented for example. Over the last few years player sales have been as important as expensive signings with one subsidising the other. Even the £97.5 million spent on Romelu Lukaku was covered by the sales of Tammy Abraham (£34 million); Kurt Zouma (£30 million); Fikayo Tomori (£30 million); Davide Zappacosta (£5 million) and Victor Moses (£4 million).
We are led to believe that this is no longer the strategy and that Boehly is willing to spend £200 million to get Tuchel’s squad ship shape for an assault on the Premier League title next season. If that is the case, then there is much work to do. Antonio Rudiger and Andreas Christensen need to be replaced and the departure of Romelu Lukaku on loan to Inter Milan will need to be addressed.
Question marks hang over a lot of ageing and squad players such as Cesar Azpilicueta, Marcos Alonso, Kepa Arrizabalaga, Malang Saar, Ruben Loftus-Cheek, Ross Barkley, Abdul-Rahman Baba and Kenedy. This is before we get into who might go to accommodate new arrivals where the futures of players such as Hakim Ziyech, Christian Pulisic, Timo Werner, Jorginho and even N’Golo Kante are far from certain.
So, in the blink of an eye there appear to be question marks over the Chelsea futures of no less than 13 players from last season’s squad to add to the three known departures. It seems to me to be completely unrealistic that Chelsea will ship out and replace almost an entire squad in one transfer window. There is a debate to be had as to who needs to be shipped out and replaced, but it isn’t going to happen in one window.
Boehly and Tuchel are hopefully constructing a long-term plan and vision and this summer’s transfers will represent stage one of this and I am sure there will be many stages to follow. If Boehly follows a similar plan to Manchester City and Liverpool under Jurgen Klopp and Pep Guardiola, then it could take at least three to five seasons for Chelsea to undertake a complete transformation of the squad.
Jurgen Klopp arrived at Liverpool in October 2015. He inherited a squad including: Ádám Bogdán, Adam Lallana, Alberto Moreno, Brad Smith, Christian Benteke, Daniel Sturridge, Danny Ings, Danny Ward, Dejan Lovren, Divock Origi, Emre Can, James Milner, João Carlos Teixeira, Joe Allen, Joe Gomez, Jon Flanagan, Jordan Henderson, Jordon Ibe, José Enrique, Kolo Touré, Lucas, Mamadou Sakho, Martin Škrtel, Nathaniel Clyne, Philippe Coutinho, Roberto Firmino, Sheyi Ojo, Simon Mignolet and Steven Caulker.
When Liverpool won the Champions League three seasons later in 2018-19, only nine of the squad he inherited remained. It took three seasons to ship out 20 players and bring in 18 new players. As always, it is the quality of the replacements that deserve attention with players coming in such as Georginio Wijnaldum, Virgil van Dijk, Andy Robertson, Alisson Becker, Fabinho, Mohamed Salah, Naby Keïta and Sadio Mané.
Two seasons on, in 2020-21, only five players from the squad Klopp inherited remained: Joe Gomez, James Milner, Roberto Firmino, Jordan Henderson and Divock Origi.
A similar pattern emerges at Manchester City. Pep Guardiola inherited a squad in 2015-16 containing the following: Aleix García, Aleksandar Kolarov, Angeliño, Angus Gunn, Bacary Sagna, David Silva, Fabian Delph, Fernandinho, Fernando, Gaël Clichy, Jesús Navas, Joe Hart, Kelechi Iheanacho, Kevin De Bruyne, Nicolás Otamendi, Pablo Maffeo, Pablo Zabaleta, Raheem Sterling, Samir Nasri, Sergio Agüero, Tosin Adarabioyo, Vincent Kompany, Willy Caballero and Yaya Touré.
Two seasons later when City won the Premier League only 10 of that 24-man squad remained with 18 new arrivals. By 2020-21, only Fernandinho, De Bruyne, Sterling and Agüero remained from the squad Guardiola inherited in 2015-16.
Wholesale change did not happen in one transfer window for either Liverpool or City, City signing 11 players in Guardiola’s first two transfer windows notwithstanding. It is highly unlikely to happen at Chelsea either, even if Tuchel has £200 million to spend.
The key is not just in who Chelsea can buy, it is who will buy the players Tuchel deems surplus to requirements and it would be no surprise if that this transformation will take three to five seasons to take place. Given this reality, the need for a long-term plan to be carried out by one manager who is secure in his job will be very important.
Chelsea can also factor in the number of players coming through the academy, many of whom are on loan, which might obviate the need to go into the market for squad players. City and Liverpool broke through very few academy players between 2015-16 and 2020-21.
Of course, Chelsea needs to keep hold of the home-grown players and find enough meaningful minutes on the pitch for them, or suitable loans, or they may go the same way as Fikayo Tomori, Tammy Abraham, Tariq Lamptey and Marc Guehi; sold to finance transfers or leaving to get game time.
If Chelsea no longer has to operate a ‘one in, one out’ policy and intend to implement a long-term plan under one manager, then perhaps the much talked about data driven approach to transfers, the ‘Money Ball’ idea, might actually work. Chelsea is no stranger to using data analytics to inform their transfers having created the Premier League’s first analytics department in 2008. However, if you change your manager every 18 months or spend millions on the whim of the owner, then it becomes very hard to implement it.
Todd Boehly is a disciple of the Money Ball method and while buying players based on analytics has proven to be successful at Liverpool with Ian Graham, their Director of Research helping to decide which players to acquire by feeding information on games into his formulas, statistical analysis can only be one side of the equation.
As has been proven with the signing of Romelu Lukaku and the dismal failure it proved to be, character and attitude and other human traits play a big part in the success of any transfer, as well as circumstance and luck. Hopefully, between Boehly’s data analytics approach and Tuchel’s acumen as a man manager and judge of character, Chelsea can make the right signings for the club going forward. Just don’t count on the whole squad being revamped in one transfer window this summer.
It could well take three to five seasons to see the completion of the overhaul the squad needs, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to only see three to five new arrivals and departures in this window.
READ NEXT:
Pep Guardiola has already told Thomas Tuchel what Nathan Ake offers amid Chelsea transfer move
- Todd Boehly already has Nathan Ake Chelsea alternative after £45m Marina Granovskaia regret
- Chelsea transfer hypocrisy exposed after Thomas Tuchel's surprising Nathan Ake wish
- Nathan Ake's true transfer value revealed as Chelsea aim to complete double £71m Man City swoop
- Chelsea look to secure Timo Werner-inspired transfer for star similar to Cristiano Ronaldo
