Arizona, once the rock-solid Republican home of party legends John McCain and Barry Goldwater, could well have its first Democratic legislature in almost three decades next year.
If it does, Republicans will have COVID-19 to blame.
Arizona's Senate and House are among 13 chambers in seven states that the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee is targeting, as polling suggests the party is poised for its best Election Day in years _ and that the pandemic is hurting the GOP. Democrats are targeting disgruntled independents, highlighting President Donald Trump's haphazard COVID-19 response and pounding related issues like access to health care.
"There is no doubt that the Democrats are feeling their oats," said Tim Storey, executive director of the bipartisan National Conference of State Legislatures. "The first ballots go out in September in some states. This election is going to start in just five or six weeks."
Cook Political report analyst Louis Jacobson this month shifted his predictions for eight chambers, six held by Republicans, in the Democratic direction. One reason the GOP is on defense is that the party has the most seats to defend. Republicans have held most statehouses for nearly a decade. Even after the 2018 election eroded that dominance, the party controls 60% of legislative chambers nationwide.
Partisan switches could bring policy changes on gun control, education funding, environmental rules, Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act, abortion and voting rights. They could also decide in most states the critical question of which party will draw legislative and congressional district maps for the coming decade.
Republican-drawn maps from 2011 have spawned years of court battles. Some made it impossible for Democrats to win legislative majorities even while dominating the popular vote. One disenfranchised North Carolina's black voters with "almost surgical precision," according to the federal judge who threw it out.
This year, the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee has raised $50 million to flip seats, 10 times what it raised in 2010. The party's 2020 targets include House chambers in Michigan, Texas and Iowa, the Minnesota Senate, and both chambers in Arizona, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. There are also longer shots like Kansas and Wisconsin, where Democrats are trying to block Republican supermajorities capable of overriding governors' vetoes.
