In a way, it’s impressive that the bumbling incompetence of one man can rival a once-in-a-century global pandemic, but that’s Donald Trump for you. Ever since his catastrophic “Liberation Day”, on which he unveiled crushing tariffs on imports to the United States, domestic manufacturing has been in panic mode.
In simple terms, manufacturers depend on reliable international supply chains, which allow them to make long-term plans for fabricating products using raw materials and components from around the world. Trump’s tariffs have thrown a hand grenade into that, with manufacturers now unable to predict prices: if you order a bulk shipment of a Chinese-made component, you now have no idea how much you’ll pay for it when it’s fulfilled
As such, the Institute for Supply Management, which has been monitoring the business world for over a century, has had a truly miserable year to date. They’ve recently surveyed their clients, and the results make for dispiriting reading.
US May ISM manufacturing ISM -0.2pts to 48.5 with orders and employment remaining weak and prices elevated with respondents citing tariff disruption, eg “the administration’s tariffs alone have created supply chain disruptions rivaling that of COVID-19".
— Shane Oliver (@ShaneOliverAMP) June 2, 2025
(Bloomberg chart) pic.twitter.com/jk8w6dgKi6
Trump’s tariffs decreased the Production Index to “alarmingly low” levels, and overall domestic factory output is plummeting, with “companies still revising production plans downward amid economic uncertainty”. The headline-grabber is that this is approaching the same disruption as the height of the pandemic: “the administration’s tariffs alone have created supply chain disruptions rivaling that of COVID-19”.
“Empty shelves at retail”
Nervous companies are now waiting to figure out their next move, as Trump’s repeated tariff reversals, concessions, and random demands mean it’s impossible to make any future plans for manufacturing goods. As the survey starkly concludes: “Chaos does not bode well for anyone”.
You may be thinking, “I don’t run a manufacturing company, why should I care?” Well, multiple alarms have been raised that the United States’ economy is currently on what’s dubbed “coyote time”, referencing Wile E. Coyote running off a cliff but not falling until he looks down. We’re now at the point where the United States is standing over the abyss with no safety net below us and the dawning realization that we’re about to plummet to the bottom and hit the ground hard.
It’s probably too late to make contingency plans for the future, but we can only hope that TACO Trump continues to fold under the slightest pressure, or as the report concludes, it’s going to mean “empty shelves at retail” by summer’s end.
