There was supposed to be more drama. The Championship had treated us to one of the most gripping promotion races in years, the lead at the top changing hands more often than David Cameron changes teams, and it was all building up to a final day that promised to delight and enthral the neutrals and lower the life expectancy of anyone whose team had something to lose.
That was the idea when the top six teams were separated by six points at the end of the Easter weekend. Yet everything changed last Saturday; the battle for automatic promotion jolted to a sudden end, Watford sealing promotion after their win at Brighton & Hove Albion was followed by Middlesbrough losing at Fulham and Norwich City drawing at Rotherham United. Bournemouth then virtually secured their place in the Premier League on Monday night and although Eddie Howe’s side have not been officially promoted yet, only a 20-goal swing in Middlesbrough’s favour will deny them.
Bournemouth will be in celebratory mood at Charlton Athletic, while Watford will win the title if they beat Sheffield Wednesday at Vicarage Road.
The situation is similarly straightforward at the bottom. Blackpool were doomed in August, while Millwall and Wigan Athletic were relegated after Rotherham, deducted three points by the Football League for fielding an ineligible player, beat Reading 2-1 on Tuesday night.
At least this squib has not reached maximum dampness. Not everyone’s fate is known. Middlesbrough and Norwich are assured of their play-off places, but there are still four sides fighting over the final two spots. Ipswich Town and Derby County are fifth and sixth respectively, but Brentford and Wolverhampton Wanderers are good enough to pounce on any slips.
Ipswich have the most difficult fixture. Whereas Derby, Brentford and Wolves have eminently winnable home games, Blackburn Rovers will be awkward opponents for Ipswich. Ewood Park can be a tough ground to visit and Rudy Gestede, the impressive Benin striker, has 21 goals and counting for Gary Bowyer’s side, who are certain of finishing in a respectable ninth place. Ipswich will be vulnerable if they lose. They have a three-point cushion, but their goal difference is plus 19 to Brentford’s plus 16 and Wolves’s plus 12. Brentford host Wigan, Wolves host Millwall.
It promises to be an emotional day for Brentford. Their astute manager, Mark Warburton, is set to leave at the end of the season, even if Brentford go up, and his players will be desperate to extend his stay by another three matches.
However, Ipswich require only a point at Blackburn and their firepower is a match for anyone. Mick McCarthy’s side have the division’s leading scorer, Daryl Murphy, and Freddie Sears’ late winner in last Saturday’s 2-1 win over Nottingham Forest was his ninth goal since joining from Colchester United in January.
Perhaps there should be more anxiety at Derby. A point below Ipswich, Derby’s goal difference of plus 32 means that drawing with Reading will be enough for them to squeeze over the line. It should be a stroll. Reading are 19th and have not won an away match since 21 February.
Derby should win. But will they hold their nerve? They were tipped to be champions at the start of the season and were on course to go up automatically at the end of February, but their form in the past two months has been miserable; they have won two of their past 12 matches and Steve McClaren’s links with the Newcastle United job have been an unwelcome distraction. It would be natural if the whispers about McClaren’s future have affected the team’s focus.
Injuries have also been disruptive. Derby’s dip coincided with Chris Martin, their top scorer, suffering a knee injury in February and although he returned last month, other absentees have left them exposed. The influential midfielder George Thorne has missed the majority of the season and Jake Buxton, an experienced central defender, has not played since 3 March.
Derby are talented and they will offer a maverick threat if they reach the play-offs. They have scored 85 goals, more than any of the other play-off contenders, and McClaren has received financial backing; Tom Ince and Darren Bent are enviable loan signings at this level. Yet there is a fragility to Derby, a soft centre that was exposed in the 3-3 draw with Millwall last week and the 4-4 draw with Huddersfield Town a fortnight ago.
This is a team that should have been in the Premier League at the start of the season. They dominated QPR in the play-off final last May and lost in the last minute. QPR had been down to 10 men for the final 30 minutes and Brentford and Wolves will certainly hope the memory of that defeat is playing on Derby minds.
The final reckoning: ups and downs
Championship
Promoted Watford and, barring a 20-goal swing, Bournemouth.
Play-offs Middlesbrough and Norwich have secured their places. Ipswich are guaranteed to join them if they pick up a point in their game at Blackburn, while a draw would almost certainly be enough for Derby, who host Reading. Brentford, who are at home to Wigan, and Wolves, who play Millwall at Molineux, must win to stand a chance of capitalising on any slip-ups.
Relegated Millwall, Wigan and Blackpool.
League One
Promoted Bristol City are champions. Preston are guaranteed to go up if they win at Colchester. MK Dons will take the second promotion place if they draw at home to Yeovil and Preston lose; or if they win and Preston do not.
Play-offs Preston or MK Dons will be joined by Swindon, Sheffield United and Chesterfield.
Relegated Yeovil have filled one of the four spots. Leyton Orient will join them if they fail to win at Swindon. Colchester, Crawley, Notts County, Crewe and Coventry are all vulnerable. Crawley host Coventry and if there is a winner that side will be safe. Crewe (home to Bradford) are guaranteed to stay up if they win, as realistically are Notts County (away to Gillingham) given their goal difference.
League Two
Promoted Burton and Shrewsbury are up. Southend would join them by winning at Morecambe. Bury will take the third automatic spot if they win at Tranmere and Southend draw or lose. Wycombe can also finish third, if they secure victory at Northampton, Southend lose and Bury do not win.
Play-offs Two from Southend, Bury and Wycombe, plus Stevenage and almost certainly Plymouth, although Luton have an outside chance. They must beat Stevenage comprehensively and hope Plymouth lose heavily enough to Shrewsbury to overturn a goal difference deficit of eight.
Relegated Cheltenham and Tranmere.
