Pacesetters
Steaming clear at the summit are Norwich and Leeds, who have spent the past five months making a lie of the received wisdom that climbing out of English football’s second tier is an exercise in grisly pragmatism. Daniel Farke and Marcelo Bielsa have put together fearless attacking sides, the latter capping a splendid first half-season in England by reclaiming top spot with that freewheeling comeback at Villa Park.
West Brom are third, having gone about righting the wretchedness of last season in the best way possible: they stand alongside Manchester City as the top scorers in England’s top four divisions. Just below them, and testament to the division’s glorious variety, are Tony Pulis’s Middlesbrough, who are chasing promotion in quintessentially Pulisian fashion. They have scored precisely half as many goals as Darren Moore’s entertainers – barely one per game – but have the division’s meanest defence.
Filling out the playoff spots are Frank Lampard’s Derby, their forward Harry Wilson among a number of Premier League loanees distinguishing themselves in the second tier, and Sheffield United, whose goalkeeper Dean Henderson is another such player and for whom Billy Sharp is enjoying his most prolific season at this level.
Middle ground
The upper-mid region is excitingly congested, with the eight teams immediately below the play-off positions separated by four points. Of these Nottingham Forest, buoyed by the class of Joe Lolley and the goals of Lewis Grabban, and Stoke, with Tom Ince enjoying the best form of his career, look well-equipped to last the distance, although Garry Monk’s Birmingham – who make good use of the ball, despite seeing the lowest share of it in the division – may be a decent outside bet if Lukas Jutkiewicz can remain a danger. Aston Villa, their slump arrested after luring Dean Smith from Brentford in October, will expect to remain in contention given they can call on the division’s most gifted player in Jack Grealish as well as the free-scoring Tammy Abraham.
Queens Park Rangers, Bristol City, Blackburn and Swansea are within touching distance of the playoff places, with Graham Potter’s Swans, their young centre-back Joe Rodon enjoying an eyecatching breakout campaign, perhaps the most likely to make a decisive push given the top-flight pedigree at their disposal.
Those looking over their shoulders include the defensively calamitous Sheffield Wednesday, who last week saw Jos Luhukay sacked and the squad called in for crisis talks with the owner. Brentford’s early run towards promotion contention hit the rocks in stark fashion with Smith’s departure: under his erstwhile assistant Thomas Frank, the Bees have dropped from seventh to 18th.
Three places above the drop zone but far from safe are Wigan – with the goals of Will Grigg having dried up before Saturday’s penalty at Bolton – who seem likely to join Hull in enduring a nervy second half of the season, especially if the latter’s star striker Jarrod Bowen attracts January bids from the Premier League. Alex Neil’s Preston, now 15th, could feasibly set their sights on the playoffs with the imminent return from injury of last season’s top scorer, Sean Maguire.
Strugglers
Marooned at the bottom are Ipswich, who looked a lost cause when Paul Hurst’s short-lived reign was ended in late October. Paul Lambert’s impact was hardly instant but four points from their last two games, along with the bright form of Freddie Sears, has restored a cruel semblance of hope at Portman Road. Also deep in the mire are Bolton, whose bleak winless streak stands at 13 games; Phil Parkinson will be desperate to get his hands on a source of goals next month – his side are the division’s lowest scorers with a measly 15.
Neck and neck above them are Reading and Millwall, the latter odds-on to avoid the drop despite occupying the final relegation spot, while any finish above the bottom three will count as success for promoted Rotherham, for whom a remarkable 10 draws in 14 games has been enough to keep their heads above water.
