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Football London
Football London
Sport
Richard Mills

Champions League winner predicted as Chelsea have advantage over Man United

Chelsea are one of the favourites for the Champions League according to a table calculator.

The Blues secured their place in the last 16 with two games to go after a late 2-1 win over Rennes last week.

Frank Lampard's side have advanced to the knockout stage with Spanish side Sevilla, but who takes the top spot in Group E remains to be seen.

Chelsea are away to the Spanish side tonight and then host FK Krasnodar next Tuesday.

The Blues have been joined in the next stage of the competition by fellow Premier League sides Manchester City and Liverpool and Manchester United currently sit top of Group H, but their qualification is far from secure.

And according to a Champions League winner predictor, compiled by FiveThirtyEight, Chelsea are in with a shout of winning the competition for a second time.

Lampard previews Sevilla vs Chelsea

Here is a looked at what has been forecast for this season's Champions League.

How it all works

FiveThirtyEight uses its Soccer Power Index (SPI) to look at the number of goals the team would be expected to score against an average team on a neutral field, and a defensive rating that represents the number of goals it would be expected to concede.

The SPI ratings are based on its ratings at the end of the previous season and its market value as calculated by Transfermarkt.

The publication's methodology states a team’s market value — relative to their league’s average value — is strongly correlated with its end-of-season SPI rating.

It adds that it uses three metrics to evaluate a team's performance after a game: adjusted goals, shot-based expected goals, and non-shot expected goals.

Adjusted goals account for the conditions under which each goal was scored.

Shot-based expected goals are an estimate of how many goals a team 'should' have scored, given the shots they took in that match.

And non-shot expected goals are an estimate of how many goals a team “should” have scored based on non-shooting actions they took around the opposing team’s goal5: passes, interceptions, take-ons, and tackles.

For more information, click here.

How will Chelsea fare?

According to the predictor, Manchester City are the team most likely to win the competition this season as they have an SPI rating of 93.9.

And their chances of winning the final is at 23%, ahead of Bayern Munich, who have an SPI rating of 92.5 and a 19% chance of winning the final, and Barcelona, who have an SPI rating of 91.3 and a final percentage chance of 14%.

Chelsea, who have an SPI rating of 86.6, are sixth favourites to win the competition and Man United (84.8) are seventh.

For the Blues, the table predicts they have a 55% chance of making it into the quarter-finals, a 26% chance to make it into the semi-finals, a 12% chance to make it to the final, and a 5% chance to win the whole thing.

They are favoured to win the competition over other European giants such as PSG, Real Madrid, Juventus, and Atletico Madrid.

For the complete table, click here.

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